Takachi-1 Posted November 1 Report Posted November 1 2 minutes ago, potatohead said: a correction is when your neighbor gets a margin call and is forced to sell. a bear market is when you get a margin call sounds like an old Ronald Reagan joke, but yes, exactly!
SiP Posted November 1 Report Posted November 1 Gold monthly - The 4 year cycle high is due in 2024. RSI(14) is currently at 82.5, its highest level since July 2020. It's likely to get even more overbought in November since some expect the 4 year cycle high to occur in December.
SiP Posted November 1 Report Posted November 1 The share of US consumers expecting higher stock prices over the next 12 months hit 51.4%, the highest since this question was first asked in 1987, according to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey
DrStool Posted November 1 Author Report Posted November 1 1 hour ago, SiP said: crypto is different asset class. Its like FX. A move 1% on FX is huuuuge, a 1% move on crypto is minor. so probably 40-50% is a bear on crypto. 20% is for equities It's bullshit and you know it. 20% is 20%. Who made it a rule that it's a bear market? I've been around this business a long time, and before there was an FNN and a CNBC, nobody promoted such horseshit. The Dow Theory was the standard for calling a bearish major trend. And they didn't apply it to individual stocks, different asset classes or whatever. Calling a market a bear market after it's down 20% is the most useless concept in investing. If you believe it's meaningful, that's your prerogative. But it's an ex post facto, arbitrary label, that's just not helpful. 1
DrStool Posted November 1 Author Report Posted November 1 2 hours ago, potatohead said: This is that carry trade. It just keeps getting bigger because the amount of Treasury supply on the market just keeps getting bigger. This trade is the only way it could have been absorbed without prices constantly collapsing and yields going through the roof. But the trade is leveraged with repo. It's a time bomb. Primary Dealer Crisis Now, Crisis Later Liquidity Measures Show Markets Stretched to the Limit 1
SiP Posted November 1 Report Posted November 1 If Kamala Harris wins, stocks fall. Thats the current assumption on the street. Same with crypto.
DrStool Posted November 1 Author Report Posted November 1 Are you so gullible? Do you believe everything that Wall Street puts out? Stocks have been rising since October 2022. Has that been because the market has assumed for the past two years that Trump would win? The Wall Street media puts out dogshit all day every day. We really don't need to repeat it here unless we label it for what it is. Dogshit. 1
DrStool Posted November 1 Author Report Posted November 1 This setup is potentially bullish, but it needs to uptick Monday morning, or it could get very ugly. Have a great weak end.
SiP Posted November 1 Report Posted November 1 2 hours ago, DrStool said: Are you so gullible? Do you believe everything that Wall Street puts out? Stocks have been rising since October 2022. Has that been because the market has assumed for the past two years that Trump would win? The Wall Street media puts out dogshit all day every day. We really don't need to repeat it here unless we label it for what it is. Dogshit. Im talking about last month. Not years.
SiP Posted November 2 Report Posted November 2 Yields are up 76 bps since September 17th, the day before the Fed slashed rates 50 bps – with yields now 50 bps higher in 2024.. MOVE (bond market volatility) Index
SiP Posted November 2 Report Posted November 2 November 1 – Bloomberg Intelligence (Brian Meehan): “Leveraged net shorts of Treasury futures surged to historic levels yet again to $1.15 trillion, a jump of almost 50% this year, as hedge funds pile into the basis trade. While repo funding markets have been steady, the massively leveraged trade is larger by $707 billion, or 160%, than at the March 2020 seizure – meaning the Fed would likely need to bail out traders again to unwind those positions at the same time.”
SiP Posted November 2 Report Posted November 2 Similarities between today's twenties and those of the last century, which ended with the WallStreet crash. 1. inequality 2. tariffs/duties 3. increases and volatility in the markets 4. developments in technology (once radio, cinema, cars, today AI, crypto and digital media) 5. global conflicts and growing nationalism 6. post-pandemic economies (then Spaniard, now Covid). The enormity of the similarities
Recommended Posts