DrStool Posted October 30, 2024 Report Posted October 30, 2024 On the hourly chart of the ES 24 hour S&P futures, I would propose a rule. If you see a range pattern like this, run away, run away. When the thing finally breaks out, wait for the return to the scene of the crime and then take a position. That's not foolproof either. Soon enough there will be a breakout that can be ridden. That's where the money is made. The rest of the time, the trick is to not lose money. Picking a Few Nickels With Steamroller Still Coming Of course there's always buy and hold. That works great when you buy at the bottom. Or the middle, but near the end, not so much. But, Ah, this is not the end. For today, they just need to hold above 5845 here in the premarket to keep the chances of an upside breakout alive. Then the next step would be 5864. If they could clear that, then you'd have a helluva base breakout that would have a conventional measured move target of 5940. If 5845 breaks, I wouldn't get too excited. There are multiple spport lines down to around 5828. Market Broke for Second Wind Meanwhile, the bond market crash is taking a breather after the 10 year yield hit the top of an uptrend channel near 4.35. Today the scales have tipped. Cycle oscillators have begun to roll over. If the 10 year stays under 4.25, then we could see a bit of a rally. But I wouldn't rule out a flattish consolidation before the next yield spike and downleg in prices. Liquidity Measures Show Markets Stretched to the Limit Big coupon settlement tomorrow. Looks like the necessary liquidation to pay for it has already occurred. Also more T-bills coming next week. That makes an incredible $192 billion in net new T-bill issuance since Oct 1. Always remember, T-bills are money. Liquidity Measures Show Markets Stretched to the Limit But the Amazing Krapskin says, "I predict... that the Fed's Strategic QE Slush Fund Reserve will drop under $200 billion in early November. Liquidity Measures Show Markets Stretched to the Limit On the hard asset side, another breakout in gold as the parabolic uptrend accelerates. Gold Approaches Its Long Term Target Over on Crypton, the planet's residents celebrate an initial base breakout that could measure to 90k if there's any follow through. But cycle projections only measure to 74k and that's all but done. So don't party too much yet, my BTC bros. In FX, the EUR continues to try to form a bottom against the USD. EUR/USD looks good for a bit of a short term rally. But ultimately the Fed and the ECB will take turns slaughtering and then supporting their currencies. It's madness. Liquidity Measures Show Markets Stretched to the Limit For moron the markets see: Swing Trade Screen Picks – Picking a Few Nickels With Steamroller Still Coming October 29, 2024 Market Broke for Second Wind October 27, 2024 Gold Approaches Its Long Term Target October 26, 2024 Liquidity Measures Show Markets Stretched to the Limit October 21, 2024 Get Your Red Hots Here October 3, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
DrStool Posted October 30, 2024 Author Report Posted October 30, 2024 That was the top. See you tomorrow.
Recommended Posts