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Lots of Motion, No Movement - 10/28/24

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With the coming election, this will be less about cycles and more about the news cycle and unpredictable, random kneejerk reactions. If we do get a sharp drop in the short-term, I would expect...

-Market Broke for Second Wind

The ES 24 hour S&P futures approach the NY open this morning in the 5840s, where they've been most of the time for the past 10 days. But there sure has been a lot of sound and fury along the way. 

With the overnight pop, we now have a 5 day cycle projection of 5880. I wouldn't deign to say that it's likely that will get hit. Resistance shows up at 5864. If they clear that, then there would be a conventional measured move target, of 5940-50.

Spport is indicated at 5833. If broken, the next target would be a trend convergence at 5813. 

In this environment, anything is possible, nothing is likely, which I guess means that this market isn't technically tradeable, or tradeable technically. 

16z-ty

Uh oh! Over in the Treasury market, prices got smashed again and the 10 year yield threatens another breakout. The next cycle projection is now 4.60. Nobody knows the troubles they'll see if that happens. Contagion, anyone? Liquidity Measures Show Markets Stretched to the Limit

16z-ve

And take a gander at gold! While it was rebuffed at the top of a 5 month channel, this cycle projections suggest that this move is far from over. Is there a big round number in our future? Gold Approaches Its Long Term Target

16z-xh

In FX, the EUR/USD is still working on forming a short term bottom. A failure to hold here could see a catastrophic plunge in the EUR and rise in USD. US exports would become incredibly expensive but US Merkans earning incomes in doolahs would find cheap living in Europe. Double taxation anyone? Fortunately US tax treaties with most EU countries take care of that. 

16z-ze

Over on the Planet Crypton, Cryptonians haven't given up on an escape from Earth's gravity. There are now intermediate cycle projections pointing to 79,000-80,000. A high base breakout here would measure to around 90k.

16-03b

Last but snot least the Fed's Strategic QE Reserve Slush fund is almost dry, hitting a new low of just over $200B before a small bounce on Friday. Another $50 billion in net new T-bill issuance and $89 billion in coupons over the next 3 days could suck that fund down to almost nothing.  That's when shit gets real. Liquidity Measures Show Markets Stretched to the Limit 

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For moron the markets see:

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