Testing Testing and Away We Go 10/18/24

[DrStool]

The ES 24 hour S&P futures pulled back to trend support 3 times in the last 36 hours. Apparently the third time is the charm. 

I just made that up. 

OK, not, but looking at this pattern, and seeing those hourly cycle oscillators turn up from above the zero line, this sure looks like a blastoff setup. 

What else is new. The 5 day cycle projection points to 5910. That's new. And the round number syndrome calls. That's not new. We noted that before.  Round Number Syndrome

Back on the road today, but destination by the early regular trading hours in New York, so I'll be back. 

Oh, one more thing. The US Treasury continues to pound the market with T-bill issuance. Remember, T-bills are money, or as good as money, because they are instantly convertible into spendable cash via the magique of repo at 97 cents on the doolah.

But they're not using any excess cash to buy Treasury coupons. The 10 year yield is pressing the high again. A breakout would be big trouble for those enormous futures hedges supporting the Treasury carry trade. Liquidity Says, The End Is Nigh, Almost

And oh gold! Gold a la Mode

For moron the markets see:

• Gold a la Mode October 18, 2024
• Liquidity Says, The End Is Nigh, Almost October 16, 2024
• Swing Trade Screen Picks – Loads of Buy Signals with Good Setups October 15, 2024
• Round Number Syndrome October 13, 2024
• Gold Says, Not So Fast! October 10, 2024
• We’re Now Week to Week for this Bull October 9, 2024
• Get Your Red Hots Here October 3, 2024
• Market Can’t Live By Repo Alone September 25, 2024
• Macro Money Blows the Roof Off September 17, 2024
• Primary Dealer Clown Show Danger Pales in Comparison to Hedgie Daredevils September 11, 2024
• Here’s Hard Evidence that the Slowing Economy Narrative is False September 8, 2024

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[SiP]

Neflix + 10%

Nasdaq 100 on the road to new ATH. SPX on the road to 6180.

[DrStool]

I'm a little concerned that this hasn't blasted off. It still might, but if it drops below 5844 it could turn into quite a selloff. I mean, we're talking possibly a half percent here. Hold on to your hats. 

[SiP]

The market is an amazing place of positivity.
Wars in the Middle east, Ukraine, growing trade wars, limits on economic growth because the old model is gone.

And yet everything is rising - gold, bitcoin, stocks.

Its like a nice place to be positive.

[DrStool]

The slush fund has leveled out. Is this effective zero? Liquidity Says, The End Is Nigh, Almost

[DrStool]

Traders are nihilists. 

[Takachi-1]

7 hours ago, DrStool said:

Traders are nihilists. 

You gotta believe something.....  I believe in your cycles representing a cosmological trading reality.  However, I weave a complex set of opinions, intuitions, readings against the chart to make a decision to buy sell or hold that agrees or not with the underlying cycle reality.  If I were nihilistic I would have nothing against which to apply the matrix of decision making and it would be random mush.  Believing something is what allows me to rationalize something regardless if it is in concert with your cycles or not.

As an aside, you aren't the only cycle model I follow, but thats immaterial. I have something that is the backdrop against which I agree or disagree in a given trade.  JMHO

I'll say this though, it doesn't matter what you believe, what matters is that you apply some consistent logic against what you believe and exercise discipline in woking that logic to a winning strategy.

 

[DrStool]

I should have been more specific. My reference was to the professional traders, both buy side and sell side, who move the markets, not individual traders and investors. And specifically in response to this:  

On 10/18/2024 at 8:57 PM, SiP said:

The market is an amazing place of positivity.
Wars in the Middle east, Ukraine, growing trade wars, limits on economic growth because the old model is gone.

And yet everything is rising - gold, bitcoin, stocks.

Its like a nice place to be positive.

To the institutional and private equity buyers and managers, and the market making inventory managers and spread scalpers, it's about the game, winning and losing. They have a method, but they are not making value judgments about geopolitical or economic trends. They are, at heart, nihilists, in it for the addiction to the game, to power, to winning, losing, and money. They believe in nothing. They are only interested in direction. The rationale for it is secondary. 

That said, it has been 40 years since I was on The Street. Maybe they're all god fearing men and women, working for the greater good now.