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Posted

Check out the two hour bars on the ES. It's a picture perfect high base breakout, the quintessence of an orderly advance. The breakout has a conventional measured move target of 5860.  We’re Now Week to Week for this Bull

16s2h8

On the hourly chart, we're looking at a lower channel boundary that runs from about 5780 to 5790 during regular NY trading hours. There's a 5 day cycle projection of 5640-50.  If the market stays above that trendline, there's a solid chance of hitting the projection and the measured move target in short order. 

16s2jn

Over in the bond market, the 10 year Treasury yield has surged as Treasuries have suffered a massive selloff. This could be the disorderly unwinding of the historically huge Treasury carry trade, with hedge funds holding massive futures short positions. 4.10 is a crucial resistance level for the 10 year yield. It's also a short term cycle projected peak. If cleared, it would signal big trouble ahead, with a move to 4.20 in short order, and much higher yields to follow. We’re Now Week to Week for this Bull

16s2k2

Hard to believe, but looking at the long term chart of BTC, it sure looks like a consolidation winding up for another breakout. But we won't have a better handle until there's a breakout, one way or the other. 

16s2oh

Gold is testing its uptrend today. If it doesn't hold, there's room for some pain.  Gold Says, Not So Fast!

16s2ut

For moron the markets see:

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Posted

Tampa Bay dodged the bullet, but property loss to the south will be staggering. The insurance market in Florida has been in crisis for years. This will shut it down. Even if policies are offered, the cost will make any development you can think of infeasible. 

I felt years ago that these few dozen mom and pop insurers in FL would never be able to pay out if a big storm hit a major metro. Even Sarasota-Bradenton, Fort Myers-Punta Gorda and Naples-Marco Island are big enough to accomplish an insurance wipeout if everything within a few blocks of the Gulf is destroyed. 

Posted
7 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Tampa Bay dodged the bullet, but property loss to the south will be staggering. The insurance market in Florida has been in crisis for years. This will shut it down. Even if policies are offered, the cost will make any development you can think of infeasible. 

I felt years ago that these few dozen mom and pop insurers in FL would never be able to pay out if a big storm hit a major metro. Even Sarasota-Bradenton, Fort Myers-Punta Gorda and Naples-Marco Island are big enough to accomplish an insurance wipeout if everything within a few blocks of the Gulf is destroyed. 

I value your views on this topic. Sounds like Florida has been riding a wave from population growth and asset appreciation. Anything that reverses this would be like watching the Primary dealers leveraged book being margin called without the help from the Fed.  Talk about about a hidden black swan in plain sight.

Posted

For the last 25 of the 30 years that I lived there, I felt that FL was the armpit of America.

Unwashed.

It's just a horrible, horrible place for development. Humans have no business living there. They ruined the natural environment, built in a place that was never fit for human habitation in the first place. Now is payback time and it will only get worse and worse. You can't drain and pave over a subtropical wetland and expect a good result. 

Just my opinion.  

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