DrStool Posted October 10, 2024 Report Posted October 10, 2024 Check out the two hour bars on the ES. It's a picture perfect high base breakout, the quintessence of an orderly advance. The breakout has a conventional measured move target of 5860. We’re Now Week to Week for this Bull On the hourly chart, we're looking at a lower channel boundary that runs from about 5780 to 5790 during regular NY trading hours. There's a 5 day cycle projection of 5640-50. If the market stays above that trendline, there's a solid chance of hitting the projection and the measured move target in short order. Over in the bond market, the 10 year Treasury yield has surged as Treasuries have suffered a massive selloff. This could be the disorderly unwinding of the historically huge Treasury carry trade, with hedge funds holding massive futures short positions. 4.10 is a crucial resistance level for the 10 year yield. It's also a short term cycle projected peak. If cleared, it would signal big trouble ahead, with a move to 4.20 in short order, and much higher yields to follow. We’re Now Week to Week for this Bull Hard to believe, but looking at the long term chart of BTC, it sure looks like a consolidation winding up for another breakout. But we won't have a better handle until there's a breakout, one way or the other. Gold is testing its uptrend today. If it doesn't hold, there's room for some pain. Gold Says, Not So Fast! For moron the markets see: Gold Says, Not So Fast! October 10, 2024 We’re Now Week to Week for this Bull October 9, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Lots of Sell Signals Again October 8, 2024 Moderating Bullish Outlook October 7, 2024 Get Your Red Hots Here October 3, 2024 Market Can’t Live By Repo Alone September 25, 2024 Macro Money Blows the Roof Off September 17, 2024 Primary Dealer Clown Show Danger Pales in Comparison to Hedgie Daredevils September 11, 2024 Here’s Hard Evidence that the Slowing Economy Narrative is False September 8, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Quote
DrStool Posted October 10, 2024 Author Report Posted October 10, 2024 Nothing has happened yet. Moderating Bullish Outlook Quote
potatohead Posted October 10, 2024 Report Posted October 10, 2024 Why do I get the feeling that the market was expecting a wipe out with the hurricane and now that the hurricane was not as bad as expected, the market could be caught short and see its own surge (no pun intended) Quote
DrStool Posted October 10, 2024 Author Report Posted October 10, 2024 Tampa Bay dodged the bullet, but property loss to the south will be staggering. The insurance market in Florida has been in crisis for years. This will shut it down. Even if policies are offered, the cost will make any development you can think of infeasible. I felt years ago that these few dozen mom and pop insurers in FL would never be able to pay out if a big storm hit a major metro. Even Sarasota-Bradenton, Fort Myers-Punta Gorda and Naples-Marco Island are big enough to accomplish an insurance wipeout if everything within a few blocks of the Gulf is destroyed. Quote
potatohead Posted October 10, 2024 Report Posted October 10, 2024 7 minutes ago, DrStool said: Tampa Bay dodged the bullet, but property loss to the south will be staggering. The insurance market in Florida has been in crisis for years. This will shut it down. Even if policies are offered, the cost will make any development you can think of infeasible. I felt years ago that these few dozen mom and pop insurers in FL would never be able to pay out if a big storm hit a major metro. Even Sarasota-Bradenton, Fort Myers-Punta Gorda and Naples-Marco Island are big enough to accomplish an insurance wipeout if everything within a few blocks of the Gulf is destroyed. I value your views on this topic. Sounds like Florida has been riding a wave from population growth and asset appreciation. Anything that reverses this would be like watching the Primary dealers leveraged book being margin called without the help from the Fed. Talk about about a hidden black swan in plain sight. Quote
DrStool Posted October 10, 2024 Author Report Posted October 10, 2024 For the last 25 of the 30 years that I lived there, I felt that FL was the armpit of America. Unwashed. It's just a horrible, horrible place for development. Humans have no business living there. They ruined the natural environment, built in a place that was never fit for human habitation in the first place. Now is payback time and it will only get worse and worse. You can't drain and pave over a subtropical wetland and expect a good result. Just my opinion. Quote
DrStool Posted October 10, 2024 Author Report Posted October 10, 2024 This little launchpad is a major infartion point. If they take out 5797, this thing will really launch. We're lookin at a 5 day cycle projection of 5870. Moderating Bullish Outlook Quote
DrStool Posted October 10, 2024 Author Report Posted October 10, 2024 5 day cycle projection pulls back to 5825. Quote
Jorma Posted October 10, 2024 Report Posted October 10, 2024 It's pretty cool that since the Fed 'lowered rates' on Sept 18 TNX is up .4% and everyone is already getting hot and bothered about the next cut. Quote
DrStool Posted October 10, 2024 Author Report Posted October 10, 2024 Treasury issuing T-bills like there's no tomorrow this month. Gold Says, Not So Fast! We’re Now Week to Week for this Bull Quote
DrStool Posted October 10, 2024 Author Report Posted October 10, 2024 Now it looks like a top. Go figger. Quote
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