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Two Doinks 9/30/24

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SInce Friday afternoon we've now had one lower high and a lower low in the ES 24 hour S&P futures. It's an hourly basis bear market. 

But the supercycle (long term trend of more than 2 days) is still bullish. The ES would need to end today below 5715 to change that. But if that happens, the result could be catastrophic, potentially as low as 5685 or even 5675. 

All kidding aside, the hourly oscillators have now trended meaningfully below the zero line with little evidence of the normal cycle patterns that we're accustomed to. It raises the mathematical question of, "What up wit dat?" Well, for starters, there's an apparent 5 day cycle projection of 5690. Let's judge the future accordingly. 

16nwe4

Most indicators are in gear and suggest higher prices ahead, but there’s a crack in a long-term measure that starts a clock. How much higher and how long do we have, doctor? Here’s the prognosis.  Non subscribers click here to access.

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Market rallies have been well supported by adequate, self generated liquidity. But that’s about to change in October, particularly late October. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

There are a couple of things to watch. One is that …

That prop now goes away until xxxxxxxxxxx. Investors will need to use debt to absorb the immense wave of Treasury supply that’s on the way.

The other factor is that ……. That will give us a better idea of when …………………………. will stop acting as a prop for asset prices.

I continue to estimate that it will ……………………. in late ………. or xxxxxxxxxx.  The longer this goes on, the more fragile the system becomes.

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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