DrStool Posted September 17 Report Share Posted September 17 The Fed's RRP slush fund is now down 90% from its peak levels reached in Q1 of 2023. This month $144 billion has been withdrawn. Soon, the money will be gone. Then what. I have forecast the draining of this facility from the time QT began. The Fed created this facility as a place for the excess funds to park, that were created mostly during the period when the debt ceiling was in place and T-bills were being paid down. At the same time, QE was still pumping excess cash into dealer, investor (via MMFs), and bank accounts. A massive tidal wave flowed in reaching $2.5 trillion at peak. When the debt ceiling was lifted in April 2023, the Treasury began issuing T-bills again, and those holding the RRPs began to withdraw their funds to buy T-bills. This process was predictable and predicted by people paying attention. I was paying attention. I had identified this as a slush fund that would be used to support asset prices when the Fed began QT. I warned years ago, that it would be used for that purpose. It has filled that role spectacularly. Now, the end is nigh. I continue to cover that process regularly, with some guesses about what to expect when Doomsday finally arrives. Oh, what a surprise. The Fed is about to cut rates. Next, it will end QT. Only question is when they go back to buying all the Treasury issuance again. It won't be long until we find out. The Slush Fund is on schedule to reach effective zero, just as I forecast it would, when I forecast. I have a new report in process for publication this afternoon (hopefully). Meanwhile, here's the latest. Primary Dealer Clown Show Danger Pales in Comparison to Hedgie Daredevils Meanwhile, the uptrend is intact on the hourly chart of the 24 hour ES, S&P 500 futures. The latest 5 day cycle projection of 5655 has been hit. A 2-3 day cycle projection of 5665-75 is still live, but we're splitting hairs. They're testing the all time high as a right. If they break through, strap in for another meltup. And if not, order some maple syrup for the waffles coming to your table. Stock Market Has Perfect Lineup for Fall Classic For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Screen Picks – Eight Is Enough September 17, 2024 Stock Market Has Perfect Lineup for Fall Classic September 16, 2024 Gold Gets Ready to Rumble 9/12/24 September 12, 2024 Primary Dealer Clown Show Danger Pales in Comparison to Hedgie Daredevils September 11, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Read My List, No New Picks September 10, 2024 How Deep Was My Valley September 9, 2024 Here’s Hard Evidence that the Slowing Economy Narrative is False September 8, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 17 Author Report Share Posted September 17 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Eight Is Enough Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader September 17, 2024 As of September 16 closing prices, the list had an average gain of + 7.3% on an average holding period of 25 calendar days. That was up from an average gain of + 4.7% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days the week before. Non-subscribers click here for access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. Current screens yielded 523 short-term buys and 140 short-term sells. After applying long term trend structure and intermediate term filters, there were a whopping 184 buys and only 6 sells. Scary stuff for bears. Non-subscribers click here for access. I reviewed all the sells, and the buys in alphabetical order through the letter H. At that point I had already selected 8 charts to add to the list on the buy side and I stopped. Because Eight is Enough. Non-subscribers click here for access. To view list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers click here for access. Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 17 Author Report Share Posted September 17 July 16 hourly high on the ES was 5669.9. Almost there. 2-3 day cycle projection still 5670, but I wouldn't hold my water there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 17 Author Report Share Posted September 17 Here's a 2 hour bar perspective. If the breakout holds, the conventional measured move target is 5835-5915. Swing Trade Screen Picks – Eight Is Enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 17 Author Report Share Posted September 17 The Trump golf course in West Palm is about 3 miles from where I used to live. At one corner is a strip joint, T's Lounge. Adjacent to the north side of the golf course is the Palm Beach County Jail. And on the south side of the street is a low income neighborhood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted September 17 Report Share Posted September 17 Gold made a top this week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted September 17 Report Share Posted September 17 DJI, SPX - > ATH, small but still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itiswhatitis Posted September 17 Report Share Posted September 17 2 hours ago, DrStool said: The Trump golf course in West Palm is about 3 miles from where I used to live. At one corner is a strip joint, T's Lounge. Adjacent to the north side of the golf course is the Palm Beach County Jail. And on the south side of the street is a low income neighborhood. Looks like your old hangout closed many years ago. I just had to look it up. https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/entertainment/local/2015/06/11/t-s-lounge-strip-club/7226543007/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 17 Author Report Share Posted September 17 The floods in central Europe and Poland are breaking my heart. I was just there. I have friends there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 17 Author Report Share Posted September 17 4 minutes ago, itiswhatitis said: Looks like your old hangout closed many years ago. I just had to look it up. https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/entertainment/local/2015/06/11/t-s-lounge-strip-club/7226543007/ 😂😂😂 Never in a million years. That place was notorious. What's there now? The funny thing is that the prisoners on the upper floors of the jail have a nice view of the golf course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 17 Author Report Share Posted September 17 A little bit of a thump there. Talk to me if it breaks 5600. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 17 Author Report Share Posted September 17 7 hours ago, DrStool said: A 2-3 day cycle projection of 5665-75 is still live, but we're splitting hairs. They're testing the all time high as a right. If they break through, strap in for another meltup. And if not, order some maple syrup for the waffles coming to your table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted September 17 Report Share Posted September 17 The us dollar rug pull Seizing the Russian foreign currency reserves has really put the fire under gold prices. Does that make it a gold anti rug pull!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takachi-1 Posted September 17 Report Share Posted September 17 1 hour ago, Jimbo said: The us dollar rug pull Seizing the Russian foreign currency reserves has really put the fire under gold prices. Does that make it a gold anti rug pull!!! Who in their right mind would keep their reserves in the US from now on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 17 Author Report Share Posted September 17 Macro Money Blows the Roof Off Lee Adler 1 - Liquidity Trader- Money Trends September 17, 2024 Measures of banking system and non bank liquidity have broken out to new highs. The market rallies remain well supported by adequate liquidity. There are a few measures flashing yellow but most are ramping. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. At the same time, critical ratios reached all time levels of extension over the summer. It means that the current rally is likely to be the final rally of the bull markets in stocks and bonds. Enjoy it while it lasts, because it’s not long for this world. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Along with the usual charts and explanations to paint the picture. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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