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Stocks Say, Let's Get Ready to Rumble 9/12/24

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The 5 day cycle projection on the ES is 2600. 

Yesterday was an obvious case of baker-dealer shake and bake. The bigger the shake, the bigger the take. Yesterday they had a big take. 

Now the chart says, measured move target of the base breakout is 5700 if they stay above 5550. How Deep Was My Valley

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For moron the markets, see: 

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Cycles appear to be back in gear to the upside with the 9-12 month cycle in xxxx xxxx. Resistance is indicated around xxxx. Trend should accelerate if they clear that. However, a daily close below xxxx would suggest at least an intermediate term top. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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Primary Dealers remain modestly net xxxx the bond market, including both their securities portfolios and futures hedges. That’s a problem, considering not only what’s going on right now, but what has been going on for the past 3 months. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Technically Treasuries are near an important inflection point on the charts. Repo shows extended leverage among dealers. They are slightly xxxxx overall, which isn’t bullish for the big picture. They are leveraged to the hilt and they’re taking hits. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Hedge fund positions in Treasuries have blown the basement out of their record short position. The mind boggling short position is based on a hedged carry trade that just keeps getting bigger and bigger. This is partly a function of ever increasing supply. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

That has the potential to trigger an unstable unwinding. So far it hasn’t. The rally goes on and their short position keeps getting bigger. It’s not clear how long it will be until this breaks. We must remain vigilant for a sign, whether it be in the liquidity data or the technical side. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Between both the dealers and the hedge funds we see these enormous positions, extreme leverage, and one-way hedged bets. Whatever way this breaks, the move should be big and fast in both bonds and stocks. However, we don’t yet have a tell on which market takes the hit, and which takes off. Or maybe with the extreme leverage, they both implode. Something big is coming, but when and how are still unclear. We need to be vigilant for something big. Here’s what to do in the meantime while we lie in wait, ever watchful. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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5 day cycle projection 5595.95. That's right stocks fans this is your last chance for today's blue plate special before the regular daily price of 5595.95 all you can eat buffet. 

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