DrStool Posted August 30 Report Share Posted August 30 Buy the dip. Buy the dip. Buy the dip. This is bear abuse, and it has to stop. One day it will. But I don't think that today is the day. Let's look at the 2 hour bars of the ES for perspective. Does this look bearish to you? Not one bit. In fact, if this breaks out topside, it will complete a massive bottom at a top that would imply much much higher prices ahead. The Market Still Blows Here's our usual hourly look for the day to day Action Jackson Hole Expectoration Adoration Abomination. The number it needs to beat for a breakout is 5650. If it does, then it will get to 5675 in a heartbeat. Clearing that would yield 5720. In one day? Sure, if it gets through that first line of da fence. And what might be needed for any downside excitement. Break 5584 for starters. But there's more spport at 5559. Watch out for dippers at both levels however. From the Department of BTC Leads But Not Necessarily, look at this picture and see what you want. But I heard that BTC is going to 97 million zillion. I think that the real reason for these air pockets that have developed this week is the requirement for the market to absorb the enormous bond issuance today and Tuesday. The liquidation needed to do that has shown up in both stocks and bonds. I think the effect will continue to be more pronounced in the bond market, as illustrated by the 10 year yield, 2 hour bars. Gotta break 3.90 to get a really bearish upside yield move going. The hourly chart of gold is at an interesting infartion level. Gold’s Most Important Point For the big picture and longer view, subscribe to Liquidity Trader! For moron the markets, see: Gold’s Most Important Point August 29, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Short Inundation August 28, 2024 Liquidity Still Supports the Rally, But with Warnings August 27, 2024 The Market Still Blows August 26, 2024 Liquidity Now Hinges on Mood August 19, 2024 Bits and Pieces- Why What Was Bearish is Now Bullish August 15, 2024 Tax Collections Were Worse than the Jobs Report But… August 5, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted August 30 Report Share Posted August 30 http://ahappyhabitat.com/music/albumVI/ZOOM0002-A-PIILOW-OF-WINDS.mp3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted August 31 Report Share Posted August 31 "exchange-traded funds tracking government debt, corporate credit and equities have now risen in unison for four straight months. It’s the longest stretch of correlated gains since at least 2007. " https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-30/once-in-lifetime-wall-street-rally-raises-soft-landing-stakes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 1 Author Report Share Posted September 1 Another Higher Projection for Stock Prices Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader September 1, 2024 The market still looks set to go higher. Non subscribers click here to access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. Shifting patterns now put the focus on the 13-week cycle. The 13-week cycle up phase should run until xxxx xxxx. A new projection on that cycle points to xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access. The market has done enough to suggest that a new 10-12 month cycle up phase has begun. The cycle high is not ideally due until xx xxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access. Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 2 Author Report Share Posted September 2 Withholding Tax Collections Support Sufficient Liquidity Growth Lee Adler 1 - Liquidity Trader- Money Trends September 2, 2024 Withholding tax collections grew enough in August to support existing market trends. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story. Subscribers, click here to download the report. Meanwhile, after my repeated warnings that the tax collection data did not support the BLS monthly nonfarm payrolls fiction, the other shoe dropped. The BLS announced a downward benchmark revision of 800,000 jobs for the year. This was due to an average monthly overstatement of “only” 67,000 jobs per month. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story. And let’s not forget the monthly revisions, which are often material. What a joke. I’ll stick with analyzing the tax data, which tells us all we need to know about the all-important Federal revenues in real time. That, secondarily, tells us something about the US economy, and how much excess liquidity it might be generating from business profits and employment income. Excess income becomes excess liquidity in bank accounts and money market funds, available to buy stocks and bonds. Regardless of how misleading the jobs reports may be, nominal revenue growth, from both jobs and inflation, has been strong enough to restrain the growth of Treasury supply and enable the US Treasury to build an enormous hoard of cash while cutting bond and note issuance. That doesn’t change the fact that there’s still a tsunami of supply coming. But if the mix emphasizes T-bills, the market can readily fund that through using the T-bills as collateral for repo at 97% of face value. Of course, whether it will do that or not depends on psychology, which we consider with the analysis of ratios of stock prices to liquidity in other reports. There’s not enough evidence yet in the tax data to suggest that that strong revenue growth holding back the growth of Treasury issuance has changed. Withholding tax revenue rebounded in August enough to xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx July. There’s enough revenue to xxxxxxxxx xxxxx expected T-bill xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx result of September estimated tax collections. The Treasury has already posted a modest T-bill paydown for this week. We’ve estimated that xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx, once the quarterly tax windfall is collected on September 16. To see the data for August visualized and learn what to expect … KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 2 Author Report Share Posted September 2 In celebration of all you new mothers and mothers to be, Happy Labor Day. May it be an easy one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted September 2 Report Share Posted September 2 Lee, how about a short primer sometime on the mechanisms and motivations of the parties in the TBill repo market. I think I know but many don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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