DrStool Posted August 27 Report Share Posted August 27 This morning the market as represented by the ES, 24 hour S&P futures has been creeping up along its latest trendline. It's amazing how these things work sometimes. After all, I drew this line yesterday. Now, as of 6 AM ET, 5619 is the number below which the market must not cross, lest ye abandon all hope, ye who enter. The Market Still Blows Bien sur, it's nothing so dramatic, forsooth, there is spport for them to play the game at 5602, and 5584, before we can think seriously about maybe a reversal. Other than breaking those levels, the uptrend still gets the benefit of the doubt, as always. On the other hand, prices are locked in a range that's almost flat. The ES needs to clear 5655 today to get anything going on the upside. Other than that, we can look forward to a creepy snoozefest. If you believe that BTC is a measure of excess liquidity, which sometimes it is and sometimes it isn't, at least not a very good one, then there's hope for the bears here. Or maybe not. Those hourly oscillators look pretty bottomy. In the meantime, bond investors took a look at that supply schedule and began to have second thoughts over the past two days. Is this the turn we've been waiting for? I have a Liquidity Trader update almost ready to drop in the hopper with an answer to that question. Notice I said "an" not "the." Because we don't know and neither do they. But sometimes we have an idea. This chart, like all the others here, is hourly. If you want the long view, you know-- three or four weeks-- subscribe to Liquidity Trader! For moron the markets, see: The Market Still Blows August 26, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – We Caught the Turn August 20, 2024 Gold Breakout Persists August 19, 2024 Liquidity Now Hinges on Mood August 19, 2024 Bits and Pieces- Why What Was Bearish is Now Bullish August 15, 2024 Tax Collections Were Worse than the Jobs Report But… August 5, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 27 Author Report Share Posted August 27 Liquidity Still Supports the Rally, But with Warnings Lee Adler 1 - Liquidity Trader- Money Trends August 27, 2024 There were no significant changes in the data this week. In looking at the big picture, I saw nothing that would materially change my analysis and outlook posted in the previous update posted August 19. However, I want to comment on an observation I made last week. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. 8/19/24 That means that the more T-bills the Treasury issues, the more bullish it is, because of market participant willingness to use those bills to convert to cash, which then enters the banking system via the magic of government deficit spending. So not only does that T-bill issuance fund market speculation, it also stimulates the economy via deficit spending. Non-subscribers, click here for access. It’s magic. And it will work until the system becomes so overleveraged that it breaks. We saw the first shot across the bow in recent weeks. Non-subscribers, click here for access. I would only amend this to say that the more T-bills the Treasury issues, the more bullish it is, potentially, because dealers, banks, hedge funds and money market funds must make a proactive decision to employ that tactic. If they turn cautious, which I seem to recall happening a couple of times in ancient history, then the T-bill issuance can become a safe haven holding rather than collateral for increased speculation. Non-subscribers, click here for access. That’s the transition for which we must always be alert. There’s nothing concrete pointing that way yet. However, in July we noted that we reached an extreme of hysteria on some measures that could be the precursor to an attitude adjustment. Here’s where that stands, and what to do about it, as of right now. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Along with the usual charts and explanations to paint the picture. Non-subscribers, click here for access. KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 27 Author Report Share Posted August 27 Red ChannAlert Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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