DrStool Posted August 22 Report Share Posted August 22 What else can you ask for. It's dull, it's boring. It's super market! Where's the white bread aisle. Swing Trade Screen Picks – We Caught the Turn Need an hourly close below 5592 to break the uptrend, and below 5584 to create a minimalist top pattern. To get anything going upside, need hourly close above 5633. Top of channel is at 5662 at NY close. They revised jobs down by 800k. Wha'd I tell ya. By tracking the tax data we knew there was persistent overstatement. Tax Collections Were Worse than the Jobs Report But, August 5. For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Screen Picks – We Caught the Turn August 20, 2024 Gold Breakout Persists August 19, 2024 Nothing But Air August 19, 2024 Liquidity Now Hinges on Mood August 19, 2024 Bits and Pieces- Why What Was Bearish is Now Bullish August 15, 2024 Tax Collections Were Worse than the Jobs Report But… August 5, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takachi-1 Posted August 22 Report Share Posted August 22 Proved yourself right again on the jobs data. I never doubted! Now, what all those people that didn't get jobs need is lower rates, so they can't quality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 22 Report Share Posted August 22 FED'S SCHMID: THERE'S ROOM TO REDUCE THE BALANCE SHEET FASTER THAN WE ARE NOW - CNBC INTERVIEW. Technically he is not lying, but technically they will never implement such a strategy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 22 Author Report Share Posted August 22 No, I disagree. If they float a trial balloon, it's essentially a done deal. Usually in about 6 months. First they want to gauge the market reaction. But they see the effect of the T-bill printing, and they're aware that it's causing massive asset inflation again. I think they want to rein that in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 22 Report Share Posted August 22 5 minutes ago, DrStool said: No, I disagree. If they float a trial balloon, it's essentially a done deal. Usually in about 6 months. First they want to gauge the market reaction. But they see the effect of the T-bill printing, and they're aware that it's causing massive asset inflation again. I think they want to rein that in. Que the second Fed speaker today....... FED'S HARKER: MY BUSINESS CONTACTS WANT A METHODICAL COURSE OF RATE CUTS. FED'S HARKER: WE SHOULD START THE PROCESS OF RATE CUTS AND KEEP IT MOVING. The first may have been the trial balloon, the second is the permanent weather balloon. How do you shrink the balance sheet and cut rates at the same time? Unless asset values implode, what I have learned from the almighty is that you have to expand money supply to lower rates. make money and credit cheaper by creating more off it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 22 Author Report Share Posted August 22 That's true too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 22 Author Report Share Posted August 22 Maybe they're going to try an experiment of cutting rates while shrinking the balance sheet. That would be interesting. We have to think through the mechanics of the levers and pulleys of that. First, what happens to the carry trades. The other wild card is the RRPs, and the SRF. That hasn't been touched yet. Honestly have to wait and see the initial reactions. I'm no good at anticipation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 22 Report Share Posted August 22 6 minutes ago, DrStool said: Maybe they're going to try an experiment of cutting rates while shrinking the balance sheet. That would be interesting. We have to think through the mechanics of the levers and pulleys of that. First, what happens to the carry trades. The other wild card is the RRPs, and the SRF. That hasn't been touched yet. Honestly have to wait and see the initial reactions. I'm no good at anticipation. When I put together the following letters RRPSRFFED and went to unscramble to make words, I get the following: Red Serf Spred Feds Peds Effs Errs This does not sound very bullish or optimistic for our future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 22 Author Report Share Posted August 22 A little breakdown from a little top pattern has an initial measured move target of 5545. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 22 Author Report Share Posted August 22 2 hours ago, potatohead said: When I put together the following letters RRPSRFFED and went to unscramble to make words, I get the following: Red Serf Spred Feds Peds Effs Errs This does not sound very bullish or optimistic for our future. Very quantum mechanical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 22 Author Report Share Posted August 22 1 minute ago, DrStool said: A little breakdown from a little top pattern has an initial measured move target of 5545. First lower low since August 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 22 Report Share Posted August 22 2 hours ago, DrStool said: Very quantum mechanical. psychological test - word association Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 22 Author Report Share Posted August 22 Everything in the universe is quantum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 22 Author Report Share Posted August 22 Even a 53 point selloff feels boring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takachi-1 Posted August 22 Report Share Posted August 22 That was crazy.... feels like a setup for a rebound glorifying whatever comes out of the Tetons Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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