Flat Squeeze Launchpad Ready for Liftoff 8/21/24

[DrStool]

Good morning, America, how are you? 

14 hours ago, TurdButter said:

"...going much higher."

So that 6 month cycle hitting the wall early has become irrelevant?

Well, yes. I discussed it in the latest report. Nothing But Air I also earlier had the caveat that a vicious second wind rally was a possibility. That has played out. Then last week when so many buys came up in the screens, and I reviewed the charts, I found 15 that I liked enough to add to the chart pick list.  Swing Trade Screen Picks – We Caught the Turn 

I have also pointed out my error on my thinking about T-bill supply, which I recognized in June. T-bills, are defacto money. Issuing them is like printing money because they are perfect collateral and they instantly are used as such-- instamoney. The more they issue, the more money enters the system, some directly into the markets, and some via government spending, which supports economic activity, which leads to business profits, which leads to excess capital creation, which leads to more speculation etc. Next week, they're hitting the market with an insane $55 billion. Liquidity Now Hinges on Mood

It's a perfect perpetual motion machine until it becomes too top heavy. Rising prices cause increase in the total value of supply, so it takes ever more money to keep prices rising. Ultimately it dies of its own weight. If they stop printing money, prices start falling here and there, and the leverage multiplies that and the thing starts to feed on itself in the opposite direction. 

The market is dynamic, ever changing, and yes Burton Malkiel, with plenty of randomness. It's why we have to stay on top of it constantly and adjust our views as called for. 

Look, I don't like this any more than you do. Bull markets absolutely kill my business. You see it here. No one wants to be here, only partly because of me. If we build a bear market, people will come. The only time my subscriber base grows is during those rare bear markets. The rest of the time, down, down, down. Almost nobody wants to read my analysis when the market's going up.

I'm not a bear polemicist. I'm an observer. I report what I see. I make mistakes, and when I recognize them I correct them. Otherwise, I could not live with myself. I'm not here to defend a point of view. I'm hear to read and react, report what I see.    

So almost no one likes to read my work. No one is happy with it. Bulls don't care, and bears don't want to hear it when it's bullish, which is most of the time. 

So be it. The business suffers, but that's just the way it is. I will keep going, until death do us part. Because the work fascinates me, and I appreciate the handful of people who support it. I can only hope and dream that someday there will be a few more. It's the definition of insanity, I guess. 

And so, in the immortal words of Ocean Spray, I say to you, "Thank you for your support!"

[DrStool]

This chart of the ES still looks bullish. Unbelievable but true. It now needs to break 5584 to have any shot whatsoever at a downside reversal. Trend support will be at 5590 at the end of the day. Trend resistance will be at 5642. 

For moron the markets, see: 

• Swing Trade Screen Picks – We Caught the Turn August 20, 2024
• Gold Breakout Persists August 19, 2024
• Nothing But Air August 19, 2024
• Liquidity Now Hinges on Mood August 19, 2024
• Bits and Pieces- Why What Was Bearish is Now Bullish August 15, 2024
• Tax Collections Were Worse than the Jobs Report But… August 5, 2024

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[DrStool]

Oh. Twin Towers double top. Might we have something here? 

[DrStool]

Jeeze. DIdn't take them long to start buying that "dip."

[potatohead]

Lee, I think you summarized it best. We are living in a world where our society either inflates or dies. The leverage upon leverage upon leverage that is supported by leverage and its foundation is based on leverage eventually ends with exactly what you said.  "so it takes ever more money to keep prices rising. Ultimately it dies of its own weight."

Buying gold and silver is not a liquidity measure as much as it is taking chips off the table. Reducing risk of a devaluation in the currency or systemic/counterparty risk. After all this is a confidence game, and the political establishment has been doing its best to enrich themselves at the expense of its citizens. This is dangerous, as history tells us that once confidence is lost, it could take a generation for it to come back.

Keep up the excellent work. I value it greatly. Your reporting is genuine and provides a very objective look under the hood of how the system works.

 

[crooked_analyst]

"So almost no one likes to read my work. No one is happy with it. Bulls don't care, and bears don't want to hear it when it's bullish, which is most of the time."

Howdy... I haven't posted in a forever, but I really appreciate your work. It's fantastic.

I just hate when you throw your political views into the mix. That's it. I'll return to the gallows.

[DrStool]

Thank you for the nice compliment! 

I respond when challenged. That's all. If people attack those whom I value and respect, I have to speak up. 

Liz Warren is a hero to me. She was denigrated for what? claiming she had native American DNA. Well guess what. She does. She is also brilliant and a fighter for social and economic justice. Those things are important to me. They're at the core of who I am as a human being. I realize that many bears don't agree. It makes me sad. People don't like me because I believe in economic and social justice? How goddamn sad is that.  

So, yeah, I have my sacred cows, and if attacked, I respond.