On the Launchpad Again 8/15/24

[DrStool]

Yes, that's right stocks fans. They're lined up at the starting gate ready to run again. The 5 day cycle projection on the ES now looks 5475-85. The first support line rises to 5470 at the New York close. They gotta break that to begin to break the uptrend. First resistance trendline is around 5505 at the close. 

 

For moron the markets, see: 

• Pit Oval Week Lies Ahead August 11, 2024
• Swing Trade Screen Picks – Catching Many Fish August 12, 2024
• Still Looking Up for Gold August 9, 2024
• Tax Collections Were Worse than the Jobs Report But… August 5, 2024
• Why Primary Dealers Net Short Fixed Income Is Now Bad News for Stocks August 1, 2024
• End Stage Hysteria Breaks July 24, 2024
• Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller July 9, 2024

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[DrStool]

Bits and Pieces- Why What Was Bearish is Now Bullish

Lee Adler 1 - Liquidity Trader- Money Trends August 15, 2024

Whereas, in the course of human events… Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Wait! Who starts a report with “Whereas!” I do! Whereas I’ve been summer vacation mode, traveling, I’m a bit behind on updated the Treasury supply and banking data. So I’ll reduce this to bite sized pieces for more current consumption over the next two days. First let’s start with Treasury supply. The Treasury and TBAC just released their latest 6-month supply estimates on July 31. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

In following reports, I’ll get to the Fed balance sheet data, which is released on Thursday evening, and then the banking data, released Friday evening. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Repo use surged last week in a massive breakout. Clearly, the players have decided that they are ready and willing to use repo to acquire and finance Treasury inventory. Coupon issuance for the August 15 mid-month refunding is light, but the Treasury has issued a tsunami of T-bills in July and August. Heavy coupon supply is due at month end. Then T-bill paydowns are coming in September as usual, thanks to the mid month estimated tax payment windfall. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Meanwhile, T-bill issuance has been massive in July and August. Back in the old days, I thought that T-bill issuance was bearish because buyers needed to liquidate existing assets to purchase them. That used to work, but now it is wrong, as we recognized when T-bill issuance surged in June. Here’s why, what it means for the market, and how to play it as a result. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

[DrStool]

5 day cycle projection now looks 5585. The Harris Bull Market. 

[DrStool]

Can someone tell me how to spell Parabolum bowl. 

[DrStool]

[potatohead]

31 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Compliments of Repo and T-Bill financing.....Yellen is turning this market into a circus of excess and animal spirits