Failed High, Ticking Clock 8/13/24

[DrStool]

The ES futures made a new rally high at 3 AM ET, then pulled back. The high was accompanied by a negative divergence in hourly oscillators. However, that isn't always meaningful. It would only be so if both the market averages and the indicators break a prior low. That hasn't happened yet. 

It hasn't even broken any trend spport lines. It's working on the first as I write at 6:45 AM ET. That's at 5350. Then there are additional lines every 5 points or so down to 5322. To get anything going on the downside, the market would need to first break all of those, and then the biggie, which is the prior minor hourly low at 5322. If that's not broken, the bulls remain in charge. 

If those levels remain unbroken, then this 3-5 day cycle down phase could be the precursor to a big breakout on the next up phase. Cycles have been irregular lately as the markets have been whipped by margin calls on both long and short positions in various classes of trading instruments in recent days. The levels are more important than time in this environment. However, we should remain cognizant that ideally a 3 day cycle low would be imminent this morning. If a 4 or 5 day cycle is dominant, then the bears still have time to get something done. But the clock is ticking. Pit Oval Week Lies Ahead

Meanwhile, look at this shitmess. How can anyone take seriously a market that typically moves up and down 20% in a month. Cryptoheads can have themselves. I've never touched this money laundering fraud and never will. 

Here's another one. I have to wonder if the short squeeze in the Treasury market has run its course. Both hedge funds and dealers were carrying massive short positions in a carry trade. That's not completely unraveled yet. 

The TLT is the ETF for the 10 year Treasury bond maturity. It's a good proxy for the bond market. 

They're still short up the wazoo, and got shorter as the squeeze progressed, oddly enough. Means they bought the cash market and shorted more futures. Red is the dealers and blue is the hedge funds on the COT panel below. Liquidity Trader Money Trends Reports

 

 

And gold is setting up for something big here, the outcome of which nobody knows, and I am not nobody. But it should tip its hand one way or t'other soon.  Still Looking Up for Gold

 

For moron the markets, see: 

• Pit Oval Week Lies Ahead August 11, 2024
• Swing Trade Screen Picks – Catching Many Fish August 12, 2024
• Still Looking Up for Gold August 9, 2024
• Tax Collections Were Worse than the Jobs Report But… August 5, 2024
• Why Primary Dealers Net Short Fixed Income Is Now Bad News for Stocks August 1, 2024
• End Stage Hysteria Breaks July 24, 2024
• Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller July 9, 2024

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[DrStool]

Oingo Boingo. 

5 day cycle projection 5440 or fight. 

[DrStool]

5 day cycle projection now 5450. 

[MisFit Kid]

so the Japan Central Bank "resubstantiation" last week is as strong as the US FED.......

.........are they the same?

 

[MisFit Kid]

and business as usual.......everyone loves break dancin'

[MisFit Kid]

How many Jam Jobs is that since "The Lastest Black Monday".........?