DrStool Posted August 5 Report Share Posted August 5 Our friend Potatohead reported over the weekend that the CME had called for more margin on stock futures. On 8/3/2024 at 6:39 PM, potatohead said: Then pre market trading opened on Sunday night and the result was predictable. Once the liquidation to meet this mass margin call is complete, we should get a rebound. On the other hand the plunge in the markets will generate more margin calls this afternoon. To quote Professor Berra on the subject of margin selling, "It ain't over till it's over." That said, the 5 day cycle projection of 5195 was overshot. And there are a ton of spport lines in the 5175-80 range. So I'm half expecting a decent bounce from a huge down gap when New Yak opens on a vomit. But I'm not sure how long that bounce can be sustained. The top of the downtrend channel will be at 5215 in the opening half hour of NY trading. At 1 PM it will be at 5200. At the close it will be around 5185. They need to clear that go get bottom formation started. Meanwhile, I had reported last week that dealers were mispositioned on the short side in Treasuries and that this was a problem for the stock market. This has borne out. Why Primary Dealers Net Short Fixed Income Is Now Bad News for Stocks The short squeeze in the bond market is contributing to the stock crash. This is a self reinforcing vicious cycle where one feeds the other. It also creates the currently false perception that the economy is contracting. Of course if the financial market dislocation persists, that will become a self fulfilling prophecy. If the stock market crashes, the economy will ultimately follow. Meanwhile, look who's short the 10 year. Dealers (red) and hedge funds (blue). The most leveraged jackasses on the planet. Here's the current picture this morning on a yield basis. For moron the markets, see: Tax Collections Were Worse than the Jobs Report But… August 5, 2024 Why Primary Dealers Net Short Fixed Income Is Now Bad News for Stocks August 1, 2024 Stars Suddenly Align for Gold August 1, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Letting It Ride July 29, 2024 Topping on the Cake July 29, 2024 End Stage Hysteria Breaks July 24, 2024 Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller July 9, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 5 Author Report Share Posted August 5 Oops. Here we go again. Let's look at the 5 hour bars to see if that might give us some idea of where the bottom is today. 4950 anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 5 Author Report Share Posted August 5 Good Gawd Yall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TurdButter Posted August 5 Report Share Posted August 5 'Self reinforcing vicious cycle'= portfolio insurance in 1987. Gold and crude getting smacked also, deflationary. Like summer/ fall of 2008. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TurdButter Posted August 5 Report Share Posted August 5 Summer/Fall of 87, US economy roaring hot, probably never been as organically strong since. Now, not so much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 5 Author Report Share Posted August 5 Implications of Market Ahead of Itself Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader August 5, 2024 The 6-month cycle has apparently topped out well ahead of its ideal time window, a suggestion of longer-term… Non subscribers click here to access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 5 Author Report Share Posted August 5 Tax Collections Were Worse than the Jobs Report But… Lee Adler 1 - Liquidity Trader- Money Trends August 5, 2024 After a strong June, tax collections weakened in July. Do they suggest that the widely feared recession may already have begun, or that maybe it’s just a normal correction? Here’s the answer, as always with the proprietary graphs that you can’t get anywhere else that show you why. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story. Subscribers, click here to download the report. KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 5 Author Report Share Posted August 5 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Missing 80% Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader August 5, 2024 In attempting to develop a method that requires a minimum time investment, the once weekly format has its shortcomings. While results have been positive over the past 31 months, they haven’t beaten the market. Non-subscribers click here for access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 5 Author Report Share Posted August 5 Not too bad. Dow only down 1100 points. Reminds me of a thousand points of light. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 5 Author Report Share Posted August 5 Once the margin selling is finished. gonna be a vicious as hell rebound. Don't be fooled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted August 5 Report Share Posted August 5 Schwab is broken for me. No login possible mobile or desk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takachi-1 Posted August 5 Report Share Posted August 5 thinkorswim is working for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takachi-1 Posted August 5 Report Share Posted August 5 I actually bought a little IAG in the premarket, its not going anywhere yet but it will Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted August 5 Report Share Posted August 5 47 minutes ago, Jorma said: Schwab is broken for me. No login possible mobile or desk same here.....seems something is rotten for retail..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 5 Author Report Share Posted August 5 No problem with IB Ireland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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