DrStool Posted August 2 Report Share Posted August 2 First, this. Why Primary Dealers Net Short Fixed Income Is Now Bad News for Stocks Now a look at the 4 hour bars for some perspective on just how significant yesterday's selloff was. This is not a joke. If this morning's weakness sticks, the breakdown of the pattern of the past week would have a conventional measured move target of 5245. As for the big top pattern that is breaking down, I won't go there, because that's long term, which is anything longer than 3 days. I cover that in the weekly Technical Trader reports, the last of which was Topping on the Cake. Next one coming up early Monday. Finally our regular look at the hourly ES we are looking at a 4 day cycle basis projection of 5320. A bit premature for a 5 day cycle projection. 2-3 day cycle projection is 5390, done. The bulls can save their ass here with an hourly close above 5402. It is possible because the hourly cycle oscillators are buried and due for a Dover Sole bounce. Then there's this. What's bullish for bondholders is a problem for Primary Dealers, and a big problem for stocks. I explain why, and what to expect. Why Primary Dealers Net Short Fixed Income Is Now Bad News for Stocks For moron the markets, see: Why Primary Dealers Net Short Fixed Income Is Now Bad News for Stocks August 1, 2024 Stars Suddenly Align for Gold August 1, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Letting It Ride July 29, 2024 Topping on the CakeJuly 29, 2024 End Stage Hysteria Breaks July 24, 2024 The Sky’s the Limit July 18, 2024 Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller July 9, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 2 Report Share Posted August 2 Your liquidity report may have spelled out how they intend to lower rates. Incredible wealth of information. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted August 2 Report Share Posted August 2 Unemployment rate jumps to 4.3% (against a forecast of 4.1%). Change in private sector employment 97 thousand, against a forecast of 150 thousand. Change in non-farm employment 114 thousand, against a forecast of 175 thousand (and a downward revision of the previous month's figures). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BreakOut Posted August 2 Report Share Posted August 2 Too late to resubstantiate? The close will be very telling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted August 2 Report Share Posted August 2 10 year and 5 year papers are approaching important horizontal levels https://stooq.pl/q/?s=zn.f&c=3y&t=c&a=ln&b=0 https://stooq.pl/q/?s=zf.f&c=3y&t=c&a=ln&b=0 still some room for bonds but the move in PRICE is about to be tested. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted August 2 Report Share Posted August 2 Traders trade bonds via price/future not yield. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted August 2 Report Share Posted August 2 JB Hunt come back almost to the place where the move up started couple weeks ago Again, horizontal line - tested https://stooq.pl/c/?s=jbht.us&c=3y&t=c&a=ln&svg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted August 2 Report Share Posted August 2 intel! o my gosh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted August 2 Report Share Posted August 2 I guess that unwinding carry trade - beause JPY getting stronger - is how it looks like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted August 2 Report Share Posted August 2 russell came back where it all started at 2100 https://stooq.pl/c/?s=qr.f&c=1y&t=c&a=ln&svg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted August 2 Report Share Posted August 2 As accidents go the short covering rally in long dated Treasuries is a fun one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted August 2 Report Share Posted August 2 Reachin' for Yield in all the wrong places...... sorta like, lookin for love in all the wrong places........ central banks win (again)......go vote, and see what changes....... >: Who gets bailed out first? >:: and how many to follow......(or have they already set that stone) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 2 Author Report Share Posted August 2 5 day cycle projection 5200. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted August 2 Report Share Posted August 2 Rather odd.... the "Gary US" stock market has never been this high in any year....til now....(Year) where did all the flowers go....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 3 Report Share Posted August 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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