Market Runs Out of Money- 8/2/24

[DrStool]

First, this. Why Primary Dealers Net Short Fixed Income Is Now Bad News for Stocks

Now a look at the 4 hour bars for some perspective on just how significant yesterday's selloff was. This is not a joke. 

If this morning's weakness sticks, the breakdown of the pattern of the past week would have a conventional measured move target of 5245. As for the big top pattern that is breaking down, I won't go there, because that's long term, which is anything longer than 3 days. I cover that in the weekly Technical Trader reports, the last of which was Topping on the Cake. Next one coming up early Monday. 

Finally our regular look at the hourly ES we are looking at a 4 day cycle basis projection of 5320. A bit premature for a 5 day cycle projection. 2-3 day cycle projection is 5390, done. The bulls can save their ass here with an hourly close above 5402. It is possible because the hourly cycle oscillators are buried and due for a Dover Sole bounce. 

 

Then there's this. What's bullish for bondholders is a problem for Primary Dealers, and a big problem for stocks. I explain why, and what to expect. Why Primary Dealers Net Short Fixed Income Is Now Bad News for Stocks

For moron the markets, see: 

• Why Primary Dealers Net Short Fixed Income Is Now Bad News for Stocks August 1, 2024
• Stars Suddenly Align for Gold August 1, 2024
• Swing Trade Screen Picks – Letting It Ride July 29, 2024
• Topping on the CakeJuly 29, 2024
• End Stage Hysteria Breaks July 24, 2024
• The Sky’s the Limit July 18, 2024
• Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller July 9, 2024

If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

[potatohead]

Your liquidity report may have spelled out how they intend to lower rates.  Incredible wealth of information.

[SiP]

Unemployment rate jumps to 4.3% (against a forecast of 4.1%). Change in private sector employment 97 thousand, against a forecast of 150 thousand. Change in non-farm employment 114 thousand, against a forecast of 175 thousand (and a downward revision of the previous month's figures).

[BreakOut]

Too late to resubstantiate?
 

The close will be very telling.

[SiP]

10 year and 5 year papers are approaching important horizontal levels

https://stooq.pl/q/?s=zn.f&c=3y&t=c&a=ln&b=0

https://stooq.pl/q/?s=zf.f&c=3y&t=c&a=ln&b=0

still some room for bonds but the move in PRICE is about to be tested.

 

[SiP]

Traders trade bonds via price/future not yield.

[SiP]

JB Hunt come back almost to the place where the move up started couple weeks ago

 

Again, horizontal line - tested

https://stooq.pl/c/?s=jbht.us&c=3y&t=c&a=ln&svg

[SiP]

intel! o my gosh

[SiP]

I guess that unwinding carry trade - beause JPY getting stronger - is how it looks like.

 

 

[SiP]

russell came back where it all started at 2100

https://stooq.pl/c/?s=qr.f&c=1y&t=c&a=ln&svg

[Jorma]

As accidents go the short covering rally in long dated Treasuries is a fun one. 

[MisFit Kid]

Reachin' for Yield in all the wrong places......

sorta like, lookin for love in all the wrong places........

central banks win (again)......go vote, and see what changes.......

>: Who gets bailed out first?

>:: and how many to follow......(or have they already set that stone)

[DrStool]

5 day cycle projection 5200. 

[MisFit Kid]

Rather odd....

the "Gary US" stock market has never been this high in any year....til now....(Year)

where did all the flowers go.......

[potatohead]