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Ain't No Mountain High Enough 7/9/24

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The ES 24 hour S&P futures have shifted into trending mode in all of the time frames that we watch on this thread. There's neither a 5 day or 2-3 day cycle projection. Both have been surpassed and there's not enough wave amplitude for any downside projections. I was able to derive a projection using moving averages for a 4 day period and they pointed to a high of 5595-5600. 

The market does appear to be cycling on a 3 day basis with a low ideally due tomorrow and a high due Thursday. But that only suggests possibly a bit of slowing today and tomorrow. The ES would need to end today below 5570 to break this phase of the uptrend. It would need to close below 5560 to create a potential short term top pattern. Big Move in Superficial Intelligence

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$15 billion in new T-bills issued today and $21 billion on Thursday at roughly 5.3% should do some sucking. 

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First day in several that long rates are up.  If there is $21B coming  on Thursday I will hang on to my TTT, which has been underwater more than I like.  Is all of that T-bills doc or are there some coupon issue.

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1 hour ago, Takachi-1 said:

First day in several that long rates are up.  If there is $21B coming  on Thursday I will hang on to my TTT, which has been underwater more than I like.  Is all of that T-bills doc or are there some coupon issue.

Those are T-bills. $31 billion in coupons on 7/16. $25 billion in T-bills 7/16. 

The combination of market sentiment that has gone insane and the coming deluge of Treasury supply have rendered the financial markets increasingly fragile. At the same time, that does not rule out continuation of the rally. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Survival of the bullish trend in stocks will depend on the willingness of dealers, hedge funds, and institutions to continue to increase leverage in order to support rising prices. They could use the coming crush of T-bill supply as collateral for new borrowing to buy stocks and bonds.

Or they may decide not to.

I know of no way to forecast when the willingness to constantly increase leverage to support the bull market will end. Nor do I think it necessary to do so. Normally we can see the signs of reversal via technical analysis applied not just to stock prices, but also to the liquidity measures that we track here. When the tide begins to go out, we should see the signs of it in both, in time to take the appropriate actions. As of now, we see xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx.

In the meantime, we must keep our radar up and running.

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KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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