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Predicting the Future 6/24/24

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Rangebound markets make predicting difficult, especially about the future. However, we look to things like time, the odds favor the upside for the next 2 days or so. The hourly cycle indicators suggest that a 5 day cycle low has formed, and that the next high isn't ideally due until Wednesday.

Where might this lead? For starters, the ES, 24 hour S&P futures face resistance around 5484. If they manage to get through that, the little bottom pattern thus formed would conventionally measure to around 5510. If they don't get through, prepare your chutes. Weak Trend Status Quo

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In Liquidity Trader we forecast and track the outlook for Treasury supply, which is a major determinant of the direction of both bonds and stocks. Here Cometh the Grim Repo Man The end of the month has potentially cataclysmic implications. While there have been about 65 billion in T-bill paydowns sending cash back to various market entities, that's not enough to fund the $144 billion that will smack the market in the final week of June. It gets worse in July. 

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Today's swing trade screens of approximately 1300 NYSE and NADSAQ chips that meet price and volume criteria, 43 had swing trade buy setups, of which 6 triggered. 82 had sell setups of which 31 triggered. That's a humungous and growing number. 

Either my screening model has turned to shit, or something is cooking. 

Report coming up later. 

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2 hours ago, DrStool said:

Today's swing trade screens of approximately 1300 NYSE and NADSAQ chips that meet price and volume criteria, 43 had swing trade buy setups, of which 6 triggered. 82 had sell setups of which 31 triggered. That's a humungous and growing number. 

Either my screening model has turned to shit, or something is cooking. 

Report coming up later. 

last time there was a significant Net New Cash withdrawn from the market it was reflected several days in advance presumably as the dealers prepared for it.  Just a thot

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1 hour ago, Takachi-1 said:

last time there was a significant Net New Cash withdrawn from the market it was reflected several days in advance presumably as the dealers prepared for it.  Just a thot

A valid thought I think. Maybe my memory is wrong, but I think in the past it was more like that the reaction of the market came at the very same day. That changed somewhat to a reaction which comes a few days in advance I think.

Depends on how heavy the liqui pump or drainage really is I would say. An instant reaction was in March 2020 cause the pump was so absolutely gigantic. In 2008 it was a bit different: If I remember correctly the FED and other CB's began to pump right in October, but the banking crisis was systemic and it took a while till the pump "cured the system" so to say. 

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In March 2020, the market reaction was delayed 13 days after the Fed began massive QE. It almost did not work. 

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I am so impressed with the efficiency, professionalism, and low cost of the French health care system, it just blows my mind.  The US medical industry is a mafia syndicate. The skimming and corruption is mind bending. The politicians who are against reform are all on the take. Protection money. 

When you see how the rest of the world works, it is truly sickening. 

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I had nuclear medicine stress test done last week. Great results. I'm healthy! Whoopee!  

I received the results by mail. My doctor got them electronically. Now that my government health account is set up, I will receive future test results and prescriptions through the online account. 

The government insurance system paid most of the cost. My share was 83 euros, of which the government insurance fund will pay 76. That was the doctor fee. The test fee was around 350. The test I had done would have cost $3000-4000 in the US.   I was at the outpatient hospital clinic for 3 hours, undergoing 3 separate scans. They rotated a number of patients through the various stages of the tests like clockwork. 

The tax cost of the health care program for middle and upper income taxpayers is around 9.2% of taxable income.  Compare that to the percentage of income Americans pay for insurance. On average it's 18% of GDP.  

Sick alright. 

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