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Too Many Sell Signals to Ignore 6/21/24

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This is interesting. $65 billion in paydowns with more likely to be announced next week. But look at that festering boil at the end of the month. Just waiting to be popped. How the market will respond depends on how much more cash is coming from T-bill paydowns next week, methinks.

Here's the latest blueprint, posted yestiddy. Here Cometh the Grim Repo Man 

Net Cash Pay Down in Millions of Dollars, by Date
Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly
Held Maturing
Net New Cash or
(Pay Down)
07/01/2024 Coupons $196,000 $101,452 $94,548
06/28/2024 Coupons $49,000 $0 $49,000
06/27/2024 Bills $200,000 $215,996 $(15,996)
06/25/2024 Bills $200,000 $214,976 $(14,976)
06/20/2024 Bills $200,000 $218,976 $(18,976)
06/18/2024 Bills $200,000 $214,948 $(14,948)

As I mentioned yesterday, there were a ton of actionable sell signals from swing trade screens based on Tuesday's close.   

22 hours ago, DrStool said:

In my daily swing trade screens from Tuesday's close, 44 charts were in buy setups and 72 were in sell setups. 

But get this. 6 of the buy setups triggered.  27 of the sell setups triggered. Either that's a big deal, or my algo sucks. 


I spent the first couple hours yesterday laying on shorts. By late afternoon I was 2 to 1 short. It didn't help. I got clobbered. But with my "system" I have to give these setups a week to play out for starters. If I'm not here next Friday, it's because I jumped off a tall building. 


There are no tall buildings here. 

OK, so I will gut it out. 

As for today, the screens generated 23 buy setups of which 3 triggered. There were 56 sell setups of which 20 triggered. This shows follow through on Tuesday's bumper crop of sell signals.  

As for today. The S&P fucutures have broken a bit of spport at 5470, and set up a bit at 5457.  According to the New York Sun, yes, Virginia, there is a downtrend. But he will be killed above 5482. Prepare to say the Mourner's Kaddish just in case.  As I will for my trading capital. 


Today is the Fete de la Musique here in France. It's a music festival for the entire country, coinciding with World Music Day. The square where I live is a major venue. Starting at 6:30 PM (12:30 ET) I will be subject to continuous, ear splitting, brain pounding electro-techno "musique." 

I will survive. At least, that's what they told me in the 80s. 

Of course, we are all well aware that that's false, so have fun while you can. Do what you love. Follow your dream. If you come to a fork in the road take it. And rage against the dying of the light. 

Just call me the King of Cliche. 

A toot a lore. 

For moron the markets, see:    

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That Coupon on July 1st is quite the Whopper! But usually they wanna create that warm and fuzzy feeling for the 4th of July...

Bitcoin looks a bit toppish on the weekly... Given that it is q liquidity asset and not a risk-off asset (at least it seems to be so but there are other voices who believe it is a risk-off asset), it could be that it signals a coming shortage of liquidity.

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2 hours ago, DrStool said:

As for today, the screens generated 23 buy setups of which 3 triggered. There were 56 sell setups of which 20 triggered. This shows follow through on Tuesday's bumper crop of sell signals.  

This is a correction of my original paragraph above. Sorry about the error. 

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Temperature 104 and power blackout on Croatia's coast. As you recall, I lived there for 13 months in 2020-21. One summer during the pandemic. It gets hot there. Tough without AC. 

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The downtrend is broken and the 5 day cycle oscillator is buried, 5 days from the last low. 

Or is it broken? 


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But there was no positive divergence on the hourly oscillators at that low, so retest or lower low still likely. 

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