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Mo Money 6/14/24

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The T-bill paydown announcements are not only coming fast and furious, they're getting bigger. When it comes to June estimated tax receipts, the US Treasury must like the way they look. 

Once they put that $68 billion coupon issue to bed on Monday, hard on its heels $34 billion in cash will be coming back to investor and dealer accounts. Money money money money! And there's more on the way. Plus there were $36 billion in paydowns in the first half of the month that should help a lot in absorbing that coupon issue.  May Tax Collections Were Super Bullish

Net Cash Pay Down in Millions of Dollars, by Date
Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly
Held Maturing
Net New Cash or
(Pay Down)
06/20/2024 Bills $200,000 $218,976 $(18,976)
06/18/2024 Bills $200,000 $214,948 $(14,948)
06/17/2024 Coupons $119,000 $50,468 $68,532

With all this cash coming back to investors over the next few weeks, it would not surprise me to see a 4% yield on the 10 year again. First they'd need to break 4.18. With a $68 billion settlement due Monday, I'm not sure that's doable, but we'll see soon enough. 

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Meanwhile, our hourly chart of the ES is waffling, breaking trendlines as it moves sideways in a range. It just broke it a hair. It would be more interesting if it breaks 5393 by the NY open, or 5392 by the close. The Top Must Wait

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Running my swing trade candidate screens this morning from yesterday's closing prices there were 143 sell trend setups of which 12 triggered. Big jump from yesterday's numbers 51 and 4. On the buy side there were 43 buy setups, just 2 triggered. That compares with 68 and 6 yesterday. 

The times they are a changin. 

Maybe. 

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Had the Plot, But Not the Right Actors

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7 hours ago, DrStool said:

If they manage to clear 5433, we could be off to the races. 

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Well I started to run from a shower the other day and realized I can't run anymore.  I'm thinking Musk might go into Crypto. If Jerry and the boys won't inflate things then he will. Obviously Tesla is the biggest con of all history.

It might be hard to get the mind around but this inflation of assets is, according to plan, just getting started. How else can we get to Mars? When hasn't this monetary mania gone according to plan. Hard to bet against it.

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