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Let the Bottom Begin 4/16/24

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Another dawn. But is it another false dawn, this market rally morning? 

The ES 24 hour S&P futures have rebounded from the bottom of a downtrend channel. It didn't get as low as very short term cycle projections suggested that it would. Hourly cycle oscillators have shifted to the buy side. And the timing isn't bad in terms of normal very short term daily cycles. Those cycles haven't been normal lately, so anything goes, but this one lines up in most ways. 

The first test of stickability will be a signal trigger line pair at 5080-90 in the NY pre-opening hour, and 5075-85 in the opening half hour. That projects down to 5065-75 at noon. If they can clear that, they should be on their way higher. The first target would be 5110.

If they can't clear it, the bottom would probably drop out. 

14ettz

That’s because they’re early, and an intervening temporary force should drive xxxx xxxx xxxxx.

Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The warning signs from the Fed’s weekly real time balance sheet data and slightly lagged data on the condition of the US banking system continued last week. The market has acted badly, but this isn’t likely “IT” yet. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx began in early April, and they will continue to xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxx  the markets for the next 4 weeks or so. Most of that xxxxx will be coming over the next two weeks. As a result, any additional market decline from here is likely to be xxxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Timing that will be tricky and a matter for technical analysis. My technical work has suggested that ideally a 6-month cycle low is due xxxxxx xxxx xxxxxx. A couple of weeks on either side of that would be normal, so we need to be alert, as illustrated in Monday’s Technical Trader report. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

We can expect a bigger selloff once the Treasury starts borrowing again, on balance, probably around the xxxxxxxxxxxxxx, and especially when the Fed’s RRP facility is effectively out of cash, which isn’t likely until xxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Meanwhile, let’s run through the charts and data so that you can see the logic behind this conclusion. First a review of how this conclusion has evolved over the past couple of months. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

For moron the markets, see:   

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3 hours ago, DrStool said:

What's My Line, with John Daly, Bennet Cerf, Arlene Francis, Steve Allen and Kitty Kilgallen

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Trivia:  Although he pronounced the little known (at the time) island of Oahu as “O-ha-u”, John Daly was the first radio broadcaster to break the news of the Pearl Harbor attack to the nation.

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"What's My Line, with John Daly, Bennet Cerf, Arlene Francis, Steve Allen and Kitty Kilgallen "

That was Kitty Carlisle but she was on To Tell the Truth.  It was Dorothy Kilgallen who was on What's My Line.

Tomorrow we can cover Gisele MacKenzie and Anna Maria Alberghetti.  Unless you want to delve into Kilgallen's odd link in Kennedy assassination theories.

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9 hours ago, Jorma said:

"What's My Line, with John Daly, Bennet Cerf, Arlene Francis, Steve Allen and Kitty Kilgallen "

That was Kitty Carlisle but she was on To Tell the Truth.  It was Dorothy Kilgallen who was on What's My Line.

Tomorrow we can cover Gisele MacKenzie and Anna Maria Alberghetti.  Unless you want to delve into Kilgallen's odd link in Kennedy assassination theories.

My memory failed me.  

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