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What's This? A Downtrend Channel 3/15/24

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The only thing that doesn't suit me is Timming because mid-March and especially April is a good time for rallies as that's when there are higher tax receipts and less supply of bonds hence classically the second half of March and April are good. So maybe sideways? We shall see. It has already been easy.

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List performance was surprisingly stable from the week before given that the previous week was already at a record level for this exercise. The average gain was 13.8% on an average holding period of 29 calendar days. That compares with an average gain of 13.1% on an average holding period of 21 calendar days in the previous week. This includes picks closed out over the course of the week and those still open. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

This week’s swing trade screens generated 23 charts which met all buy side criteria for visual review, and 31 which met all sell criteria for the week ended Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

I’ve developed an additional algo to take the place of visual review for weeding out chart patterns that are not attractive low risk entries here. The net result after that overlay left just 6 charts on the buy side and 13 on the sell side. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

These are very small numbers so I won’t draw any broad market conclusions from that. However, the fact that the numbers are small confirms what we already sensed. This advance is elderly, and is therefore prone to loss of balance and falls. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

We came into the week with 13 open picks, including 10 longs and 3 shorts. Two picks were stopped out and I have no new additions this week. We’ll thus go into the next week with 11 open picks, including 3 shorts and 8 longs. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Performance was adversely affected this week by one stock that crashed after having been one of the best performers. This is part of the game, and a drawback of only doing this exercise once a week as opposed to daily. On the other hand, a weekly period has the advantage of avoiding overtrading. There’s no perfect time frame, but doing it weekly allows the trader time to live life rather than staying glued to a trading screen every day. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

The culprit in this case was xxx which surprised traders on a revenue “miss” and a weak forecast. It had been uptrending beautifully. Then there were technical warning signs earlier in the week, but unless I go to a daily schedule, which is not on my horizon, then we have to roll with it when sheet happens. That’s the reason why I like to have enough picks to spread risk, so that if one goes really bad, it’s not a killer. And this wasn’t, given that the list still had a record average gain. Voila! The more the merrier. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

By the way, a stop would not have helped since the price opened on a huge gap down, well below any reasonable stop level I may have guessed at. I’ve now indicated a stop just below major trend support. If the uptrend holds, I’ll let this ride, week to week. If not, bye-bye. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

I’ve also indicated stops on all but one of the other picks for the purpose of taking profits. Virtually all of these picks are ready to “age out.” Non-subscribers click here for access. 

I reviewed the charts produced by the screens after the application of the new test for suitable setups. I did not like the patterns on either the buy side or the sell side. Even after applying the new filter, there was still nothing that I would consider a low risk, high reward entry setup. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

On the sell side, most were in uptrends, and while they may have peaked, they will be bouncy on the way down as they hit trend support. Again, not ideal entries. I’ll look for sell signals on the rebounds to lower highs for better shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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This looks like a 6-month cycle down phase, but ideally it should be xxxx xxxx. With cycles in gear to the xxxxxxxx, it could be xxxxx, but it will end within xxxxx and should xxxxx just as xxxxx. Then we’ll see. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

It could be xxxxxx xxxxxxx, but building xxxxxx xxxxxx takes time. In the meantime, the longer term indicators aren’t xxxx xxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxx.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

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