Guest Posted April 6, 2003 Report Share Posted April 6, 2003 3. Considering the above, what arguments can be made for the Elliot Wave Schematic in Vesselin's post showing a likely outcome? The arguments you made have been true for years. The e-wave picture I posted covers only the next few months. Short-term, the technicals trump the funnymentals any time. The stock market became overvalued in 1995. How well would you have done if you had gone short then based on the funnymentals? Also, your argument that "it is not possible to print gold" assumes a free commodities market based on physical delivery only. Unfortunately, nothing is farther from reality. The powers that be can print dollars - and can use them to short gold futures. The PM futures market is one of the least liquid futures markets. The market cap of all gold miners combined is less than the average Dow component. The powers that be regularly manipulate MMM to get the short-term Dow movements in the direction desired by them - why do you think that they cannot do the same with the gold stocks, if they want to? Longer-term, the funnymentals will probably win. Even Prechter admits that gold is going to enter a huge bull market once the last move down is over. If your investment horizont is a decade or more, you should be fine if you buy gold - even if Prechter is right and it heads down to sub-200. Those of us who care about the technicals are usually traders who can't stand to be on the wrong side of the market for the next few years - or even months. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 6, 2003 Report Share Posted April 6, 2003 Amaster - yes, I like all those "line-cloned" charts and ABC's. Keep em coming. You and chart Guru Doug are turning up some masterpieces. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldMan Posted April 6, 2003 Report Share Posted April 6, 2003 Vesselin: Thanks for your prompt response. I appreciate your posts (I have been reading them for a while now). Please keep posting. We need you (at least I do). I'll respond below, in context. Thanks! OldMan === QUOTE (OldMan @ Apr 6 2003, 11:36 AM) 3. Considering the above, what arguments can be made for the Elliot Wave Schematic in Vesselin's post showing a likely outcome? The arguments you made have been true for years. The e-wave picture I posted covers only the next few months. Short-term, the technicals trump the funnymentals any time. === I agree (that is why I am trying to learn TA - takes a while, unfortunately). === The stock market became overvalued in 1995. How well would you have done if you had gone short then based on the funnymentals? Also, your argument that "it is not possible to print gold" assumes a free commodities market based on physical delivery only. Unfortunately, nothing is farther from reality. The powers that be can print dollars - and can use them to short gold futures. The PM futures market is one of the least liquid futures markets. The market cap of all gold miners combined is less than the average Dow component. The powers that be regularly manipulate MMM to get the short-term Dow movements in the direction desired by them - why do you think that they cannot do the same with the gold stocks, if they want to? === I agree that it is quite possible that manipulation is going on. The big question is: For how much longer will it be successful? Here is my (humble) opinion: Maybe 'the powers that be' are not the only big players in the market. The widespread use of the US$ as an 'international' currency provides the US with lots of opportunities to do things that go somewhat 'against the grain' of what could be called 'free markets'. There may well be players (and some of them may also have relatively deep pockets and/or some influence) who don't really like this situation very much. For example, I have heard of attempts (by some countries) to get away from selling oil for US$. Also, I remember seeing reports that some Asian countries (e.g., China) have an unusually large portion of their currency reserves in US$ (or US$-denominated instruments), and that they are trying to get to a more balanced mix of US$, maybe Euros, and possibly gold (and/or other PMs). Of course, these are again fundamental considerations with (possibly) a mostly long-term impact. However, the current geopolitical situation may contribute to an acceleration of what might otherwise be a slow and gradual trend 'away from the US$'. For example, I can imagine that some of these players (and they are not all in Asia) may not like the US dominance of world affairs (e.g., the events leading to the 'liberation of Iraq'). They may also be aware of the fact that this war (and the resulting peace keeping efforts) is (and will be) increasing the (already pretty high) US (government) deficit. I can't see why this relatively short-term effect (AFAIK, the 'war effort' is costing the US more than 2 billion US$ PER DAY) would contribute to a strengthening of the US$. Yes, a relatively quick coalition victory (if it occurs) may lead to a short-term 'euphoria' in the US stock market (with an associated rise of the US$). But how long will such an 'euphoria' last? === Longer-term, the funnymentals will probably win. Even Prechter admits that gold is going to enter a huge bull market once the last move down is over. If your investment horizont is a decade or more, you should be fine if you buy gold - even if Prechter is right and it heads down to sub-200. Those of us who care about the technicals are usually traders who can't stand to be on the wrong side of the market for the next few years - or even months. === Again: I agree. Based on fundamentals I have been on the wrong side of the market many times. That is why I am trying to learn TA (and I appreciate all the help I can get). OldMan === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted April 6, 2003 Report Share Posted April 6, 2003 Since the smart/quick money already unwound the "war trade", I'm thinking we get 1-2 weeks of up in the broads into a spike high to unload onto the suckers, and we get a corresponding 1-2 weeks of down in the HUI to a spike low which will wash out the weak hands. My current plan is to sell into any spikes up of 10% on the broads or the miners. For the miners which have already been taken out and shot, I will set buy orders at the recent lows. For the others which have held up well, I will set buy orders somewhat below the recent lows - thinking they will be the ones who get shot badly this time around. On the other hand, there is this: http://reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=...storyID=2512951 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 6, 2003 Report Share Posted April 6, 2003 For example, I have heard of attempts (by some countries) to get away from selling oil for US$. Yep, "some countries" did. Like, Iraq. See what happened to them? :cry: One additional argument in defense of gold (the metal; not the paper) - it's a store of value. Its "buying power" has stayed basically unchanged for centuries and millenia. It's current "price" only reflects the relative faith in the strength of the US financial system. That faith can increase or decrease, the price of gold will drop and rise with that - but the value of gold will remain constant. You'll be able to buy basically the same amount of goods with it. As long as you buy it as a store of value and not for speculation, you should be fine - no matter where the technicals point. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 6, 2003 Report Share Posted April 6, 2003 Reality check. Some time ago I mentioned here that 325 was the "obvious" support for the POG. That we'll bounce off it. Which we did. I also said that the bounce will fail. Which it did. I also said that the POG will probably drop to the 306-320 area. It is at around 322 as I write this. Tell me again how TA doesn't work. :grin: Adam Hamilton has another great(ly verbose) piece about how we should rush to buy gold. While I do agree that gold is starting to bottom, I would like to ask Mr. Hamilton and Mr. Sinclar and Mr. Russel and all the other "always bullish on gold newsletter writers" - when did you tell us to sell? Because, if you didn't, and if you missed a drop from 390 to 322 while remaining bullish all the time, you have no business giving trading advice. You are no better than Abby Joseph Cohen and all the other shills who kept insisting that every NASDAQ sell-off was "a good buying opportunity" and how we should be in it "for the long term". All the way from 5120 to 1108. Anyway. The real test will be whether we break 306 or not. Unfortunately, it is a very long-term trendline and I can't estimate properly where it is now. It is "around" 306. But maybe it is at 305? Or at 306.50? Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted April 7, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 Gold down the commensurate $4-$5 already today. Duelling Ewaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 7, 2003 Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 well, even Hairy Shultz is bullish but has some resistance levels GCRU #57 on Apr 2, 2003. After those 7 1/2 weeks of gale force winds blowing against us, the wind has changed. J Downtrend lines have broken on 85% of gold shares & bullion has made an upside breakout from its bullish downtrend. Whew! What a relief. The reversal came on schedule for the 8 wk cycle I referred to in last GCRU. Bullion?s wedge target is 380-390. IMO, that means new highs for all the better quality golds. Between here & there are 2 levels of resistance, ie, the neckline of the mini H&S top, & the tops of the shoulders in those H&S?s. http://news.goldseek.com/HSL/1049480755.php If POG is dropping below $320 I'd like to know what Uncle Buck is doing - pissing on POG's grave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 7, 2003 Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 looks like they want to drive the market higher with uncle buck - no wonder gold is down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 7, 2003 Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 OK, did we bounce off 50% retrace at 320.70 if Uncle Buck goes up to confluence at 103.65 how low is that for POG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted April 7, 2003 Report Share Posted April 7, 2003 Capitulate now! Avoid the rush. I have my buy orders in. Come to papa! err...mama...whatever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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