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This Is Not Your Daddy's QE Rally 11/6/23

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First, I want to post this "little" Liquidity Trader update that I wrote over the weekend for you. It's important. If you aren't a subscriber, I sincerely invite you to try the service. If you have never subscribed, I'm still offering a 90 day risk free trial. I'm thinking of pulling the plug on that because a few people have abused it. So take advantage of this offer today before it goes away

I will say that my research and analysis is more geared toward professional money managers and sophisticated individual investors who have been around awhile. If you are a novice, and have little background in finance or markets, save us both a lot of trouble and stay away! 

Meanwhile, here's the latest Liquidity report. I'm currently about half finished this week's Technical Trader report. I will post that before the market opens in New York this morning. 

Despite what the pundits tell you, and despite the massive rally in the Treasury market over the past few days, the problem of Treasury supply isn’t going away. These rallies have come along like clockwork ever 6 months since the bear market started 40 months ago. This one gets its start from the same conditions that spawned the last 3 rallies. So is this time different? Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

No. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Last week the Treasury reported out its quarterly refunding data, including the TBAC forecast for the next 5 months. Again, the Wall Street captured media was happy to report that the top was in in yields for the umpteenth time, and therefore the bottom was in for the bear market in bonds. The bear market that they seemingly just noticed in the past 4 weeks. When the 10 year hit 5%, the pundit parade hit the streets and the airwaves to declare that the top was in (bottom in prices). Just like all those other times Wall Street correctly called a bottom or top in any major market right on the button. Remember those times? Non-subscribers, click here for access.

So let’s look at a few facts, along with the charts of the 10 year yield to get an idea of just how far this latest rally will go, and to look at whether, indeed, the Treasury market low (or high, depending on which side of the coin you are viewing) is in for good. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

After doing that, as shown in the following pages, I came away with this: Non-subscribers, click here for access.

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

We had an extraordinary rally last week. While I was "just a bit outside" on the broad market technical outlook, the swing trade stock screens performed well, and I was open minded enough to add 7 longs to the pick list before the market opened last Monday. Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Longs They did really well, thank goodness. I had been struggling with recognition for a couple of months. Buy signals had been dominant for weeks, and I had leaned that way but they were too early resulting in weeks of drawdowns. I'm breathing a sigh of relief this week, but I would never declare victory. The market is smarter than me, and I respect that. 

The hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures is extraordinary. It suggests that unless the market drops back under 4350 this morning, the meltup will continue. It should be at a lower trend angle. The big base breakout measures to 4405. So be prepared for that today. The October high was 4398. That's important resistance. If they get through that, then the next target would be the big resistance area from 4450 to 4515. 


For moron the markets, see:

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Intermediate term technical indicators launched last week, supporting the expectation of an extension of the rally. However, while we might expect an extension lasting at least xxx xxxx xxxx to xxxx xxxxx xxxx, unless Fed policy flips back to QE, or the Treasury starts paying down T-bills again, the rally’s days are numbered. This does not look like a new bull market upleg. In this report, I show the likely price and time targets of the move, along with key support and resistance levels. How the market behaves around those levels will dictate how we drive on these curves. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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A Cantillon engine for the smart money.

A Ponzi engine for the dumb money.

The smart money uses the cheap debt to buy up all the good assets.

The dumb money use the cheap debt to buy up all the bad (greater fool) assets. 

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Coming up on 2 o'clock turn time.  

After that is 2:20 turn time. To toidy turn time. 2:40 turn time. 3:10 turn time. 

After that the die is usually cast. 

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