If This is the Up Phase, Hoo Boy 10/27/23

[DrStool]

The hourly cycle indicators on the ES 24 hour S&P futures chart show that the market began a 5 day cycle up phase overnight. To confirm that the up phase will be anything more than a brief pause in the carnage, the ES would need to be materially above 4155 by the time New York opens.

What is materially? I have no idea. But if they clear 4165, that would at least indicate a little bit of an uptrend that could last a day or two.

On the other hand, if they fail to get through 4155, crash on, Garth. 

Then it all depends on what happens when they test the low around 4130. If it doesn't hold, the next significant spport areas would be around 4100 and 4050, and I wouldn't doubt that it could get there today. Remember, the weekly Technical Trader update was posted before the open this week, so the potential was clear. Beware of Bear Market Crash Potential

On the bond side, the chart has made the case for a short term rally, but if they don't take out 4.79 on the 10 year, this could get much worse, much faster than people can wrap their heads around. 

For moron the markets, see:

• Beware of Bear Market Crash Potential October 23, 2023
• Swing Trade Screen Picks – Which is Better, Late or Never? October 23, 2023
• When the Market Is Ready, an Event Will Appear October 16, 2023
• Dealers Pull In Their Horns October 14, 2023
• Veal Market – Baby Calves Get Slaughtered October 9, 2023
• Gold Breaks Down, With Long Term Implications October 5, 2023
• Tepid Tax Collections Mean It’s the Supply October 4, 2023
• The Rhymes of History September 24, 2023

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[DrStool]

7 hours ago, DrStool said:

Then it all depends on what happens when they test the low around 4130. If it doesn't hold, the next significant spport areas would be around 4100 and 4050, and I wouldn't doubt that it could get there today.

Looks like the vectors point to 4055.  Beware of Bear Market Crash Potential

[TurdButter]

Another beat down day for schlocks -and it's tumbleweeds here.

[SiP]

It's controlled move. We could talk about crash if Russell2000 break 1600 and move rapidly lower.

[SiP]

KRE ETF trending lower. Will we have this problem again?

[SiP]

INVESCO KBW BANK ETF  trade like shit. almost testing 2023 lows

[Jimbo]

THE BANKS ARE JELLYFISH.....DRYING OUT ON THE LIQUIDITY SHORE

The banks are stranded on the liqudity shore.

The deposits are racing out the door to fund the budget defecit.

The FED is not doing enough of a Hans Brinker act to plug the deposit gap.

THE FHLB is doing a Hans Brinker but its resources are finite.

In the mean time the US Government keeps on dynamiting the dyke with new expenditure programs.

Anyway the banks dont want to borrow from the FED and FHLB because it is expensive

Goodbye profits .....stock price.....and executive stock options.

End result....Banks......look out below.

Even Jamie has figured it all out and is dumping his JPM stock.

Uncle Warren figured it out about a year ago and dumped most of his bank stocks...... but not Bank of America or America Express....keeping these is a mistake.....but obviously they have considerable sentimental value to him.

(I think these two positions would benefit from a rather vigorus hedging program which given the circumstances should probably be implemented in a rather urgent manner). 

Its not pretty.

Not pretty at all.