fxfox Posted October 26, 2023 Report Share Posted October 26, 2023 4 hours ago, DrStool said: Yes, and when on their way to zero, they are culled from the market averages. Can you imagine where the S&P would be if all of them were left in the index? And not replaced with newer, growing businesses? Right. That's why - unlike popular belief - buying an S&P 500 index ETF is not PASSIVE investment, it is ACTIV. The index provider makes a rule based selection and that's an active approach. Passive would be, if S&P would keep stocks as long in the index as they are listed on a stock exchange and then always add EVERY new listed stock on a stock exchange in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 26, 2023 Report Share Posted October 26, 2023 Study from 2004: "The new firms added to the S&P 500 Index since 1957 have underperformed the original firms in nine of the ten industrial GICS sectors." https://rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/0429.pdf The study is from Jeremey Siegel, so be careful Quite weird. Haven't read it entirely, but I guess he fitted the data, so he could present a valid case for buy & hold individual stocks for the long term. That was (more or less) the title of a best seller book of him 20 years or something ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 26, 2023 Report Share Posted October 26, 2023 https://www.forexlive.com/news/yellen-we-have-what-looks-like-a-soft-landing-20231026/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted October 26, 2023 Report Share Posted October 26, 2023 8 hours ago, Jorma said: There are legions of securities which have found equilibrium at zero. I'd imagine that "legion of securities" pales in comparison to the number of traders who have found the same. From my perspective....an exponential increase in both statistics is just around the corner. I saw them drop like flies in 2000 and again in 2008...those will be a walk in the park in comparison to what has already started - in July, as stated. TCG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2023 2 hours ago, fxfox said: Right. That's why - unlike popular belief - buying an S&P 500 index ETF is not PASSIVE investment, it is ACTIV. The index provider makes a rule based selection and that's an active approach. Passive would be, if S&P would keep stocks as long in the index as they are listed on a stock exchange and then always add EVERY new listed stock on a stock exchange in the US. That's called the Wilshire 5000. No, a good index would carry the stocks at zero as part of an equal weighted average with every stock having a value of 1. Or a weighted average arbitrarily assigning some nominal amount to stocks that go to zero. But simply getting rid of them doesn't account for the losses that people suffer. Once a stock in their portfolio goes to zero, their ability to recover anything from that is exactly zero. Market averages rise over the long term because the zeros are removed from the average. It's make believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 26, 2023 Report Share Posted October 26, 2023 Ford disappoints, down 5% after hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted October 26, 2023 Report Share Posted October 26, 2023 9 hours ago, DrStool said: There are buyers for the 10 year at 5%. But how long can they sustain a rally? A few days? Weeks? A month or two. Watch 4.80. If they can't take that out, then we're looking much higher, much sooner. If they can manage to break that, the bond bulls may crow for awhile, but it will end in tears yet again. I already mentioned I expected a rally(based on fear), but...I do believe we might have found some common ground...I expect that rally "at a minimum" to be completely retraced before I take a look for myself. Although...as mentioned. Part of my back room is putting ships in the water. My thoughts are akin to my UUP/TLT comparison chart(posted a couple of weeks back). That High Energy spike has to be retraced sooner or later. I expect later....as in...starting in 2025 or later. They will cover their positions at 2,250 on the SPX. Not a moment before... Gotta run gentlemen... Best Regards, The CoinGuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 26, 2023 Report Share Posted October 26, 2023 30 minutes ago, DrStool said: That's called the Wilshire 5000. No, a good index would carry the stocks at zero as part of an equal weighted average with every stock having a value of 1. Or a weighted average arbitrarily assigning some nominal amount to stocks that go to zero. But simply getting rid of them doesn't account for the losses that people suffer. Once a stock in their portfolio goes to zero, their ability to recover anything from that is exactly zero. Market averages rise over the long term because the zeros are removed from the average. It's make believe. Yes. Good points, good suggestions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 26, 2023 Report Share Posted October 26, 2023 Enphase launches atomic bomb on itself and gets absolutely crushed, down 14% in the after live, after having lost A LOT already in recent weeks… Look at the monthly chart of Enphase, lots and lots of room to fall… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted October 26, 2023 Report Share Posted October 26, 2023 Siemens Energy lost 35% today. I guess its hard to earn money in green energy sector https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/26/siemens-energy-shares-slide-32percent-after-company-seeks-support-from-german-government-.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted October 26, 2023 Report Share Posted October 26, 2023 Great GDP, great bigtech business. Buy stocks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted October 26, 2023 Report Share Posted October 26, 2023 Europe indices on the other hand look terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted October 26, 2023 Report Share Posted October 26, 2023 Its hard to imagine that Russell 2000 will break 1600. This should be great place for a buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted October 26, 2023 Report Share Posted October 26, 2023 41 minutes ago, fxfox said: Enphase launches atomic bomb on itself and gets absolutely crushed, down 14% in the after live, after having lost A LOT already in recent weeks… Look at the monthly chart of Enphase, lots and lots of room to fall… Enphase said revenue in Europe decreased about 34% sequentially due to inventory build-up and weakening demand in key markets like the Netherlands, France, and Germany. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted October 26, 2023 Report Share Posted October 26, 2023 I don't feel the need to comment. The CoinGuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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