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The Wall Street Media is Not Your Friend 10/20/23

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People make all kinds of statements about the market with not a shred of evidence in support of those statements, because they read it on the internets. Yes, Virginia, if you saw it in the media it must be true. 



4 hours ago, SiP said:

I came across information about Japan in couple media outlets.

Somebody is sellin hard, its looks almost like liquidation to me. This smells like trouble.

The media is the problem. The more your read, the less you know. That's why I focus on data.  

The conclusion that someone is selling hard is also an unsupported assumption, other than the US Treasury which sells hard all the time. A hundred billion plus per month, is a lot of selling. In case you haven't noticed, this move didn't just start last week.    11tlr1
But as easy as it was to see this coming and track it, the stock market has been another story. I have found it difficult to stay on the plot as the conclusions I have drawn from my technical, cyclical work have been at odds with the liquidity analysis. I have come down on the wrong side of the conflict all too often. Sorry about that. 

I want to stress that the liquidity work began to warn of an important top forming in July and August. The situation has not improved since then.  If anything, as prices fall, the risk of a disorderly denouement grows. Dealers Pull In Their Horns

The 2 hour bar chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures illustrates just how tenuous things are today. Is it a 5 day cycle low, or a setup for a crash. We should know in a few hours, depending on whether this apparent spport level holds or not. 


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TLT down 51% since the August 2020 top.

Is that a lot ??????????


Re Chinese stockmarket

Your average stock market is usually two wheels turning

The wealth creation wheel and the wealth transfer wheel

The Chinese stock market is just one big wheel turning

The wealth transfer wheel!!!!!!!!!!

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