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4.98 and Lookin Great 10/19/23

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4 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I sense crashiness. 

Could happen once they can‘t defend the 5% anymore. Then the 10y will bomb higher and then the forced deleveraging will lead for folks to sell other assets like in a fire sale.

I think finally the 10y will go to 8%. Why? Cause that‘s the long term average of yearly gains in Large Cap stock indeces.

When the 10y is at 8% I will buy the S&P.

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Enphase gets bombed in the afterhours. Look at the monthly and see which huge  support it now lost.

Solaredge gets even more bombed than Enophase. Now look at the monthly and see what happened once it lost its mega support around 180. Same will happen to Enphase.

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Do you take into account that bonds are being sold off by, for example, the Japanese government in order to defend the exchange rate of the yen, or do you take into account that other countries are also selling off the dollar?

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2 minutes ago, SiP said:

Do you take into account that bonds are being sold off by, for example, the Japanese government in order to defend the exchange rate of the yen, or do you take into account that other countries are also selling off the dollar?

No. I look at aggregates, not individual countries. For information on what individual countries are doing, if you think it will give you an edge, I recommend the monthly TIC reports released with a 7 week lag. That's hard data.

I do look at the BoJ balance sheet data. Sometimes it correlates with US sticks, but hard to say if it contributes causally or they are just following the stock market. 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, SiP said:

Do you take into account that bonds are being sold off by, for example, the Japanese government in order to defend the exchange rate of the yen, or do you take into account that other countries are also selling off the dollar?

I don't know where you got the information that Japan sold Treasuries. TIC report shows them as buyers all year except May.  Big buyer on balance.

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