DrStool Posted October 5, 2023 Report Share Posted October 5, 2023 Yesterday's rally did not break the 2 1/2 week downtrend in the ES, 24 hour futures. To do that would require a New York closing price above 4280. At this point, that looks unlikely. The 5 day cycle indicators suggest top formation is now underway as of 8:45 AM ET. To negate that, they would need an hourly close above 4270. On the Lookout for Big Low Over on the bond side, the bear took a breather yesterday but this isn't over yet. Not by a longshot. Tepid Tax Collections Mean It’s the Supply Gold looks hopeless. Update coming up. For moron the markets, see: Tepid Tax Collections Mean It’s the Supply October 4, 2023 Screen Picks – Definition of Insanity Exemplified October 2, 2023 On the Lookout for Big Low October 1, 2023 Gold on the Brink of Secular Trend Sell Signals September 27, 2023 The Rhymes of History September 24, 2023 Here’s Why This Is a No Clickbait Market for Primary Dealers August 24, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 5, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2023 Gold Breaks Down, With Long Term Implications LEE ADLER 3 - GOLD TRADER OCTOBER 5, 2023 The expected breakdown has occurred. But most of the short term damage may already be done. Cycle projections only point to as low as xxxx-xxxx, while xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx this morning. Non-subscribers click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 5, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2023 Careful bear buds. Still have a 5 day cycle projection of 4300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted October 5, 2023 Report Share Posted October 5, 2023 US Treasuries maturity profile……a picture is worth a trillion words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted October 5, 2023 Report Share Posted October 5, 2023 1 hour ago, potatohead said: US Treasuries maturity profile……a picture is worth a trillion words Historically low interest rates for over a decade and the US treasury sells the front end (not by accident-intentionally/criminal mismanagement) ... collateral for the EURO/Dollar system... just keep pumping asset prices higher and higher... “You think there will be no consequences, no price to pay? The bill comes due. Always!” In this case the notes/bills... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 5, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2023 The Fed will buy them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted October 5, 2023 Report Share Posted October 5, 2023 Black Monday (1987)... Bueller?... Bueller?... anyone?... anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 5, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2023 5 day cycle projection now 4310. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted October 5, 2023 Report Share Posted October 5, 2023 RRP taking a nose dive.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 5, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2023 10 minutes ago, potatohead said: RRP taking a nose dive.... Whoa! $77 billion. Covers almost all the net issuance of $90 billion this week of which $55 billion in T-bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 5, 2023 Report Share Posted October 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, DrStool said: Whoa! $77 billion. Covers almost all the net issuance of $90 billion this week of which $55 billion in T-bills. Once its empty the FED starts buying Treasuries and ze low for stocks will be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 5, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2023 Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted October 5, 2023 Report Share Posted October 5, 2023 I'm not saying that the FED won't (they have before) but free lunches forever... has never worked out well, but this time it's different ☢️... (timing unknown but 100% chance ends in catastrophe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted October 6, 2023 Report Share Posted October 6, 2023 THE LONG AND THE SHORT OF IT The US Govt debt profile easly expalined 1/There is a great reluctance to lend long to the US GOVT....given the need for the FED to regularly print to save the day....inflation risk....guaranteed loss of capital. 2/ There is also great reluctance to borrow long by the US govt due to all the current bond losses on financial institution balance sheets...dont want to exacabate the problem. 3/ So all the borrowing gets crammed into the short side....the shorter the better. 4/ This all comes down to the rule that the size of a government debts is inverse to the duration of the government debts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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