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The Downtrend is Intact Despite Yesterday 10/5/23


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Yesterday's rally did not break the 2 1/2 week downtrend in the ES, 24 hour futures. To do that would require a New York closing price above 4280. At this point, that looks unlikely. The 5 day cycle indicators suggest top formation is now underway as of 8:45 AM ET. To negate that, they would need an hourly close above 4270. On the Lookout for Big Low

11mm2p

Over on the bond side, the bear took a breather yesterday but this isn't over yet. Not by a longshot. Tepid Tax Collections Mean It’s the Supply

11mm5h

Gold looks hopeless. Update coming up

11mm6p

For moron the markets, see:

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The expected breakdown has occurred. But most of the short term damage may already be done. Cycle projections only point to as low as xxxx-xxxx, while xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx this morning.   Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

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1 hour ago, potatohead said:

 

US Treasuries maturity profile……a picture is worth a trillion words

image.png.b124f0f723bb05bb75f9c952b68a896e.png

Historically low interest rates for over a decade and the US treasury sells the front end (not by accident-intentionally/criminal mismanagement) ... collateral for the EURO/Dollar system... just keep pumping asset prices higher and higher... 

“You think there will be no consequences, no price to pay?  The bill comes due.  Always!”

In this case the notes/bills...

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10 minutes ago, potatohead said:

RRP taking a nose dive....

Whoa! $77 billion.  Covers almost all the net issuance of $90 billion this week of which $55 billion in T-bills. 

 

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I'm not saying that the FED won't (they have before) but free lunches forever... has never worked out well, but this time it's different ☢️...  (timing unknown but 100% chance ends in catastrophe)

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THE LONG AND THE SHORT OF IT

The US Govt debt profile easly expalined

1/There is a great reluctance to lend long to the US GOVT....given the need for the FED to regularly print to save the day....inflation risk....guaranteed loss of capital.

2/ There is also great reluctance to borrow long by the US govt due to all the current bond losses on financial institution balance sheets...dont want to exacabate the problem.

3/ So all the borrowing gets crammed into the short side....the shorter the better.

4/ This all comes down to the rule that the size of a government debts is inverse to the duration of the government debts.

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