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If it Smells Like a Duck- 10/3/23


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11 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Hmmmm dunno, that would mean March 2020 was 1966 and we would now even go below the March 2020 low…

Look at the SPX from 66 to 82, the structure is a bit different than that of the Dow. The SPX made a far higher high in 68 than the 66 high was for example.

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Doc...

The 600 - 1200 oscillation...

I addressed this thought a long time ago.  As I mentioned then...all you have to do is make new highs and these three charts become worthless.

10x - rest - 10x to completion.  Just as in '29, no further market advances until all excess has been drained from the system...then, a New Deal will be proposed.  This time...a New World Order.

I'll stand by this until its proven incorrect.

I have zero doubt...that I will not be held to account.

Boy...that anniversary of the October 13th low is coming around quick.  Time.  Flies.

Best,

TCG

 

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NVDS.

It's not too late.

😉

Gotta run...

TCG

oh...and...

I felt bad having left without mentioning gold and silver.

You're now BACK on the trendline.  The break through will cause acceleration...

In the pit of despair...a new bull market in the metals will be born.  Since most people that trade gold don't understand it...and they sure as hell don't understand silver either...I'll mention this.

When GOLD slips into a free fall(not silver or the shares), then you KNOW the end is near.

38450537_VIXvsHUI-June182023.jpg.0a99f2dd6df5619c27486bc0468e7cc6.thumb.jpg.69fd16cedbe2ab8e97f043424d5628d2.jpg

I warned early...and I warned often.

I don't want to leave gold on this note...

I'm going to add this.  From day one...I said Gold was in a bubble did I not?

If I post this chart here with two date labels on the peaks and tell you to think of the S&P...does it give you a direct connection to my internal dialog?

THINK IT THROUGH to its conclusion...

GLDTheTruePath...-October32023.thumb.jpg.dd27845744971c2ec574ebf1a56fff4c.jpg

2009...will...come my fellow goldbugs.

Quickly.

The reality of my wall at 1,920 has to play out first.  Then.  It's Blue Skies.

Gold will not go despite the efforts of the current goldbugs, which is a group I personally reject...it will go up despite them.  The fight will come at 100. 

I will take on all comers...

NOW...you understand the path.

All YOU have to do...is Believe.

Simply...believe.

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I'm going to leave this for an old friend.

The topping pattern at the conclusion of a supercycle is going to resemble all the topping patterns before it.  We are currently playing out the peak from '08 with extreme precision.  Although...it does not stop there.

That was only the beginning...

Here is a current chart of the ^GSPC with an arrow at the 8.16.22 peak.

GSPC-TodaysChart1-October32023.thumb.jpg.e5d61bdb89957db2ddeaeab46c80744a.jpg

Then...I'm going to take the peak from 8.16.22 and reverse it.  Why?  With the next chart...it should become clear.

CorrectedChart2-October32023.thumb.jpg.7bf9291b9af5a80dd33abc7e0242de83.jpg

Then...I'm going to repeat my statement from early in 2022, but change the date to another period in time.

"Was 2000 all that long ago?"

SPX3.thumb.jpg.3a9484dc359f9fd94d386c70a6fc85bb.jpg

Here is the truth.

"Only a supercycle event WILL PRODUCE the secondary decline."  This is why Russia MUST be monitored closely...it is the leader of this cycle.  Whatever happens to them WILL happen to ALL other markets in the world.  I am 100% convinced that their market is a foreshadow of things to come...

They are currently two steps ahead of our market's here in the US.  If they eventually take out their recent lows...the target is 425(+25/-25).  If they don't...a stick save may be produced.  Although...at this time...I do not believe this to be the case.  I also believe the sticksave in the US will only worsen the situation...eventually.  We shall see...soon.  Our 2.17 to 2.24 Moex decline phase in the US is currently underway.  There is no waiting to see if I'm incorrect...it started when I said it did back in July.

Now.  Let's get back to discussing the peak in the chart above.

Think about Gold in this timeframe I have outlined in the chart above...where(and why) did it separate?

For you this should be like a walk in the park...don't strive so hard.

One day at a time...Patience.

Ok...2,240 to 2,250 it is. 

TCG

oh...and...

For those who like gold stars...

You see those three peaks in the GLD on the right side of the chart in the post above this one?  Notice how the peak is on the left side, then the secondary peak is lower...and the third peak is lower still?  Strange?  No.  It's telling...very telling.  Now.  Go over to TSLA and look at those three peaks in late 2021 and early 2022?  Where did the primary decline bottom?  100?

Think!  Study!  Never Give Up!

If a person would only study the "Dust in the Wind" Chart...

Our current set of peaks in 2000, 2008, and 2022...are only echoes of other peaks - in time.

It's so beautiful I cried as I put that chart together.  No one even took a look.

The future...is right there in front of your eyes.  Yet you refuse to see it...

Again.

Think!

Study!

Never Give Up!

So.  What is the GLD telling you with it's lower successive peaks?  It's nesting for a primary 3rd wave crash.  Just flip the chart and rotate it 180...it's quite easy to see.

 

 

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