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If it Smells Like a Duck- 10/3/23


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The market has now been making lower highs and lower lows for two months. If that's not a bear market...

Yesterday was ill liquidity exemplified. Ill liquidity is a sickness caused by a shortage of money. There's a shortage of money because the US government keeps borrowing more of it, and the buyers of the debt aren't using enough of their existing cash and credit to buy it, to keep prices in balance.

$157 billion in net new Treasury issuance in 8 days leaves a mark. Only $88 billion was withdrawn from the Fed's RRP slush fund to help absorb all of that shit. We don't yet know how much private repo was taken down to finance the rest but it's obvious from the price behavior of stocks and Treasuries that liquidation of other held securities was a big source of the funding.  So down we go.   The Rhymes of History

The hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures is just plain ugly. If they take out 4260 today, the conventional measured move target of the head and shoulders top breakdown would be 4185-90. They would test the low at 4238.5, and if that broke, the implied target would be 4150. The bulls' biggest hope is that the 5 day cycle projection is only 4250-55. If they make a stand there, then maybe they can turn it. 

Maybe. Maybe not. Time...

11lgdx

A better representation of the effect of supply on the market can be seen in the price of the TLT, 20 year Treasury ETF. You can see where that's headed. It equates to a 10 year Treasury yield around 7% or higher. Somebody else will need to do the math for me. I will post a couple of new reports here today and tomorrow. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/monetary/ 

11lgk0

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BLK is a representative of the plague that is hindering mankind at every turn...

FTW...

Please understand that the magnet in ALL issues was stated as "will be touched".   I said clearly..."2,240 to 2,250 on the SPX will be touched".  This is ONLY an initial target zone that is equated with "a two step decline".  If they give it to you in one step....the target will be much much lower.

Based on historical data at the time of research...I felt they would give this to us in two steps.  Hence the call...but no guarantee.

I'll be there at 2,240 to 2,250 to make further assessments that "at that time" will prove to be correct going forward, but NOT until that time.  I want to see the whites of their eyes before I squeeze the trigger.

I will tell you now.

2,24(x) to 2,25(x) has NOTHING to do with the stock market, it never has.

If I said it this way...would it be clearer for you?

2024 to 2025?

The only difference between me and the rest of the crowd is that I dropped the illusion(or delusion) of free markets a long time ago.

I'll close with this... 

Russia.  Russia.  Russia.

See the struggle at 3,250?

I said Russia will lead the whole world into the pit...and I meant it.

ThinkitThrough-October32023.thumb.jpg.a3a1cacb7a0af592069e1f97069e1731.jpg

Let the retail investor brag...let them boast...you make Coin.

If you purchased what we discussed, you'll do well.

Until 2,240 to 2,250 then...

Wait...why did I ever mention this number to begin with?  The MAGNET?  No?  It's the area where you sober up...and start to think of a new direction AHEAD of the retail crowd.

Clear heads make Coin.  The rest...well, I think you already know.

Sheep for the slaughter...

TCG

oh...and...

For those who can't read charts.  In the US...we are now heading into Russia's "2.24" decline.  The first day of the decline was on what day?

Gen 7:11.

This morning...I reviewed the BIM 5.0.  The only deviation I surmise is that the ^XOI rallied from support at 1,600 and as long as it can't break 1,920 and hold it...the original thought is still in play.  IF it goes wrong...1,920 will tell you that it's going wrong.  1,920 is the final arbiter of truth.  Smile.

There is no reason to repeat, but I will...

"All issues that struggle at 1,920.00 will fall to one of three places...".

So...

"All issues that struggle" and "So...About half?"  Just as we discussed before these events took place..are in play.

"All you have to do...is Believe."  Study "Fine Art" AND "The Great Unwind Companion Chart 1b".

BIM5.0-June232023.thumb.jpg.a87e237b0c13315fdadcd9925146e5bc.jpg

 

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