DrStool Posted September 28, 2023 Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 That's what it feels like as the market sinks a little more day after day. Some days more than others. And that's the thing. Because the slope of the decline is becoming less severe. In other words, downside momentum is waning. That can only mean one of 3 things so pay attention. The first option is that the waning negative momentum will finally exhaust itself. Momentum will turn positive in absolute terms and prices will rise. The second option is that negative momentum will increase and the market will crash. The third option is that everything will come to a standstill and the market will settle into a trading range. There you have it. This type of in depth analysis is why they pay me the big bucks. To know more about whether the market will go up, down, or sideways from here, or at least how to tell, see Prime Time for Danger and Opportunity. As for today, in order to actualize some upside, the ES 24 hour S&P futures need to at least clear 4285. Failing that, bears keep the ball for, first, a test of the low at 4238.5. Then we'd see. My favorite whipping boy, the stinking, fetid bond market continues to be the garbage dump of all investments. This is exactly as I forecast two years ago, and have steadfastly held to that view. The Rhymes of History Another disaster in the making, gold. Gold on the Brink of Secular Trend Sell Signals For moron the markets, see: Screen Picks – Still Longing for a Bottom September 26, 2023 Prime Time for Danger and Opportunity September 25, 2023 The Rhymes of History September 24, 2023 Gold’s Flat Squeeze Tightens September 21, 2023 Screen Picks – An Awful Week, But Hold On a Minute! September 18, 2023 Here’s Why This Stuck Market Is Not Surprising September 13, 2023 Beware! Jobs Really Much Weaker Than They Say September 4, 2023 Here’s Why This Is a No Clickbait Market for Primary Dealers August 24, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takachi-1 Posted September 28, 2023 Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 Medium term, where does the money come from to fuel even a range bound scenario. Seems to me the weight of the Fed is down until they start buying again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 It's all about sentiment now. If big market participants feel the market is sold out, they will use the credit available to them to buy stocks on balance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 Approaching exit velocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 If they clear 4295, would complete a base with a measured move target of 4340-45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 28, 2023 Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 Feels like we have reached some kind of selling climax. Also rates bombing higher a bit too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 Piece de resistance 4305. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 Finally starting to crawl out of that hole I dug for myself. Ways to go. I used the time honored strategy of cut losses, buy, lose more, cut losses, buy, lose more, cut losses, buy... and ooh boy, look at that profit. woohoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 Government shutdown, bullish. Screen Picks – Still Longing for a Bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 Well looks like the party's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted September 28, 2023 Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 The MFk look at the end of QTR Gary US Bond Market.... >: That 5.13% is real...the 7% FHLB is a twisted sort in that the bond does not start until 1 month (Dated Date 10/31/23), it is callable every month >:: almost everything in CD (1+ yr.) land is callable, and very un-liquid >::: US bonds are inverted (or should that be "Slotted") >:::: would you really want to buy a corporate bond or muni that pays less that a GOV...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 I'd say that 4285 is the takeout number. If it hits that, order takeout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 28, 2023 Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, DrStool said: I'd say that 4285 is the takeout number. If it hits that, order takeout. Or if not: 😂😂😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, DrStool said: I'd say that 4285 is the takeout number. If it hits that, order takeout. Enter a takeout order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 Was 2:30 turn time up or down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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