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Climbing the Mont 9/1/23

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Today I will be taking an excursion to the world famous tourist trap, Mont St. Michel. I guess it's something one must do when only a 70 minute tour bus ride away. And so I shall. 

As I climb the mont, so too does this market. It did sell off enough to break the 5 day uptrend last night, but it has recovered some in the past few hours to set another higher low. Still the uptrend is now wider and at a lower angle than before. On the other hand, a 5 day cycle low is ideally due in the 9-10 AM hour in NY. So the current pattern sets up as a consolidation/launch pad. Whether it launches or not will depend on what happens when and if they get the ES 24 hour S&P futures hourly to yesterday's high of 4533. If they clear that, then the next minor measuring point would be 4555. 

To get anything at all going on the downside, it would need to break 4506. That would open up some running room to 4488. Not much, but it would be a start. But, lest we forget,  

22 hours ago, DrStool said:

First conventional measured move implied target is 4580. Another at 4590, and finally, 4665.

A Soft Round Bottom, or V for Violence


Meanwhile, over in the land of yield, the 10 year Treasury has pulled back and stopped at the key spport level of 4.10. If that holds, it'll be up up and away from there. But if it breaks, We'd probably be looking at 3.95 to 4.0. Such a bargain. No worries, it would still be an uptrend, and very much still a bear market in bonds. Here’s Why This Is a No Clickbait Market for Primary Dealers


For moron the markets, see:

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1 hour ago, Takachi-1 said:

you're having way too much fun!   Aint the golden years great

Ain't The Golden years when you can quit working? 😄😄😄

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I was not following the news this week but i see I didn't miss a bit.

Some softer NFP number, pumpin NQ and yields. Still loose financial conditions, tight cds spreads.

I see that oil got bid. XLE also.

Im also busy next week. Autumn 🍁 is. coming.

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US markets are closed tomorrow. This thread will remain open for any Europeans still interested.

I will be traveling from Rennes to Avignon via Paris. 

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In the 70's the FED indulged in several waves of printing.

We have only had one big wave so far......

The probability of future waves of printing and resulting inflation and interest rate spikes is very high.....

As the FED saves the US government from future default crisis.

The only way to stop this is US government fiscal discipline

Can't see that happening.

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the 10-Year US Treasury is on course for a 3rd consecutive loss (after -3.9% in ’21, -17.0% in ’22 and -0.3% in ‘23), something which has not occurred once in the 250-year history of US republic since 1787.

I think Lee mentioned that the amount of shorts via hedgefunds is fairly large and could potentially cause a short covering rally in Treasuries. Now that everyone knows how bad the bond market has been, is there an event that could add pressure to the stock market and tip the scales in favor of Treashuries?

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