DrStool Posted September 1 Report Share Posted September 1 Today I will be taking an excursion to the world famous tourist trap, Mont St. Michel. I guess it's something one must do when only a 70 minute tour bus ride away. And so I shall. As I climb the mont, so too does this market. It did sell off enough to break the 5 day uptrend last night, but it has recovered some in the past few hours to set another higher low. Still the uptrend is now wider and at a lower angle than before. On the other hand, a 5 day cycle low is ideally due in the 9-10 AM hour in NY. So the current pattern sets up as a consolidation/launch pad. Whether it launches or not will depend on what happens when and if they get the ES 24 hour S&P futures hourly to yesterday's high of 4533. If they clear that, then the next minor measuring point would be 4555. To get anything at all going on the downside, it would need to break 4506. That would open up some running room to 4488. Not much, but it would be a start. But, lest we forget, 22 hours ago, DrStool said: First conventional measured move implied target is 4580. Another at 4590, and finally, 4665. A Soft Round Bottom, or V for Violence Meanwhile, over in the land of yield, the 10 year Treasury has pulled back and stopped at the key spport level of 4.10. If that holds, it'll be up up and away from there. But if it breaks, We'd probably be looking at 3.95 to 4.0. Such a bargain. No worries, it would still be an uptrend, and very much still a bear market in bonds. Here’s Why This Is a No Clickbait Market for Primary Dealers For moron the markets, see: A Soft Round Bottom, or V for Violence August 27, 2023 Here’s Why Gold Needs 2020 Vision August 25, 2023 Here’s Why This Is a No Clickbait Market for Primary Dealers August 24, 2023 Weak Week but List Stays Net Positive August 22, 2023 One Banking Indicator Is Flashing Bright Red for Stocks August 16, 2023 More Supply is Just a Lie But Withholding Weakens August 4, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 1 Author Report Share Posted September 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 1 Author Report Share Posted September 1 Not photoshopped. 😄😄😄 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted September 1 Report Share Posted September 1 9 minutes ago, DrStool said: Not photoshopped. 😄😄😄 looking great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takachi-1 Posted September 1 Report Share Posted September 1 you're having way too much fun! Aint the golden years great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 1 Author Report Share Posted September 1 1 hour ago, Takachi-1 said: you're having way too much fun! Aint the golden years great Ain't The Golden years when you can quit working? 😄😄😄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 2 Author Report Share Posted September 2 Fed RRP slush fund new low. Bullish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted September 3 Report Share Posted September 3 I was not following the news this week but i see I didn't miss a bit. Some softer NFP number, pumpin NQ and yields. Still loose financial conditions, tight cds spreads. I see that oil got bid. XLE also. Im also busy next week. Autumn 🍁 is. coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 3 Author Report Share Posted September 3 US markets are closed tomorrow. This thread will remain open for any Europeans still interested. I will be traveling from Rennes to Avignon via Paris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted September 3 Report Share Posted September 3 aha labor day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted September 4 Report Share Posted September 4 THE PROBABILITY OF FUTURE INFLATION In the 70's the FED indulged in several waves of printing. We have only had one big wave so far...... The probability of future waves of printing and resulting inflation and interest rate spikes is very high..... As the FED saves the US government from future default crisis. The only way to stop this is US government fiscal discipline Can't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted September 4 Report Share Posted September 4 the 10-Year US Treasury is on course for a 3rd consecutive loss (after -3.9% in ’21, -17.0% in ’22 and -0.3% in ‘23), something which has not occurred once in the 250-year history of US republic since 1787. I think Lee mentioned that the amount of shorts via hedgefunds is fairly large and could potentially cause a short covering rally in Treasuries. Now that everyone knows how bad the bond market has been, is there an event that could add pressure to the stock market and tip the scales in favor of Treashuries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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