DrStool Posted July 18 Report Share Posted July 18 But I'm not worried any more. If the ES 24 hour S&P futures has an hourly close below 4505 this morning, then we can talk. For now, this looks like just another consolidation pending another breakout. Because the Fed's slush RRP fund is working. I had been warning that this would happen for a couple years. I wrote that when the Fed's RRP slush fund starts coming down, it would be bullish. I wrote that the fund would start coming down when the Treasury started issuing T-bills to rebuild its cash account once the debt ceiling was lifted. Now that is playing out as expected. A half trillion has come out of that slush fund as the Treasury issued 3/4 of a trillion in net new T-bills, plus $125 billion in coupons since the debt ceiling was lifted. And all that new Treasury paper is new, perfect collateral for even more private repo and margin borrowing. And away we go. The technical outlook also keeps reflecting that the system is awash in money. For moron the markets, see: Young Bull Growing Stronger July 17, 2023 We’re Not There Yet July 16, 2023 One Small Step For Gold, One Giant Leap for Goldkind July 11, 2023 July Starts Ugly After Fabulous June July 10, 2023 Stocks Are Scraping the Ceiling July 9, 2023 Withholding Tax Rebound Sets Up a Bearish Fed Catch 22 July 6, 2023 Golden 13 Week Cycle Turn and Other Hopeful Signs 7/5/23 July 5, 2023 It’s Not Your Daddy’s Liquidity Anymore July 5, 2023 We Now Know What is Driving the Rally June 20, 2023 The Fed’s Slush Fund is Working June 16, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Lots of new photos for you travel bugs! My travel photo blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 18 Author Report Share Posted July 18 The Dow is on the verge of breaking out of a year long, massive, codpiece pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 18 Report Share Posted July 18 Russell 2000 also coming closer to the major resistance/ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 18 Report Share Posted July 18 Anyone know the ETF for shorting energy stocks like XOM? If inflation is over then XOM should tank. DUG ETF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 18 Author Report Share Posted July 18 The Dow has broken out of its giant codpiece. If it can maintain, the measured move objective would be 37,500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 18 Report Share Posted July 18 "Today there's a decisive breakout above the 50 DMA which confirms the intermediate term low that was made on June 29. The next step has to be a breakout above 2000 in order to prevent a repeat of the lower high made in April 2022 that led to a 6 month downtrend." Cyclefan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 18 Author Report Share Posted July 18 Swing Picks Following Gold’s Yellow Brick Road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 18 Author Report Share Posted July 18 5 day cycle projection on ES 3550. Almost there. Might not be the last word. Remember that the hourly oscillators turned up yesterday from just above the zero line. Usually is precursor to extended move. Then they pulled back a little overnight and blasted off again today from a very positive level around the level of yesterday's peak. Suggests that the afterburners are kicking in. Young Bull Growing Stronger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 18 Report Share Posted July 18 30 minutes ago, DrStool said: Soft landing as a growing consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 18 Report Share Posted July 18 eurusd toward 1.2 if it breaks 1.13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 18 Report Share Posted July 18 in this pace spx will reach ath at late September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 18 Report Share Posted July 18 several banka reported earnings like BAC, Morgan Stanley and all of them jumps 3-5% on the open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 18 Report Share Posted July 18 ECB Governing Council member and known hawk Klaas Knot said monetary tightening beyond next week’s meeting is anything but guaranteed. Global bond yields, including US Treasuries fell following the comments, boosting non-interest bearing gold. Bullion is consolidating around $1,950 an ounce as investors wait for a clearer outlook on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path. While swaps traders see a hike at its next meeting as virtually guaranteed, consensus becomes more divided from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 18 Report Share Posted July 18 There is a great deal of complacency in the market, if we consider that statistics show that in the first five months of 2023 we already had as many insolvencies worldwide as in all of 2022, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 18 Report Share Posted July 18 US funds hit limits on holdings of high-flying tech stocks Diversification rules stop some asset managers buying more shares in companies that dominate recent stock rally https://www.ft.com/content/24960417-f525-461b-bcdc-2963999bcdcc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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