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Triple Top With Negative Divergence 7/18/23

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But I'm not worried any more. If the ES 24 hour S&P futures has an hourly close below 4505 this morning, then we can talk. For now, this looks like just another consolidation pending another breakout. Because the Fed's slush RRP fund is working.

I had been warning that this would happen for a couple years. I wrote that when the Fed's RRP slush fund starts coming down, it would be bullish. I wrote that the fund would start coming down when the Treasury started issuing T-bills to rebuild its cash account once the debt ceiling was lifted. Now that is playing out as expected. A half trillion has come out of that slush fund as the Treasury issued 3/4 of a trillion in net new T-bills, plus $125 billion in coupons since the debt ceiling was lifted. And all that new Treasury paper is new, perfect collateral for even more private repo and margin borrowing. 

And away we go. The technical outlook also keeps reflecting that the system is awash in money.  


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The Dow has broken out of its giant codpiece. If it can maintain, the measured move objective would be 37,500. 

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"Today there's a decisive breakout above the 50 DMA which confirms the intermediate term low that was made on June 29. The next step has to be a breakout above 2000 in order to prevent a repeat of the lower high made in April 2022 that led to a 6 month downtrend."



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5 day cycle projection on ES 3550. Almost there. 

Might not be the last word. 

Remember that the hourly oscillators turned up yesterday from just above the zero line. Usually is precursor to extended move. Then they pulled back a little overnight and blasted off again today from a very positive level around the level of yesterday's peak. Suggests that the afterburners are kicking in. 


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ECB Governing Council member and known hawk Klaas Knot said monetary tightening beyond next week’s meeting is anything but guaranteed. Global bond yields, including US Treasuries fell following the comments, boosting non-interest bearing gold.  Bullion is consolidating around $1,950 an ounce as investors wait for a clearer outlook on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path. While swaps traders see a hike at its next meeting as virtually guaranteed, consensus becomes more divided from there.

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There is a great deal of complacency in the market, if we consider that statistics show that in the first five months of 2023 we already had as many insolvencies worldwide as in all of 2022,


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