DrStool Posted July 17 Report Share Posted July 17 Or Baby Head and Shoulders. Methinks it's a wee bit too obvious as it has played out over the past couple of days on the ES, 24 hour S&P futures. The neckline is downsloping. The ES would need to have an hourly close below 4495 to then have an implied price target of 4468. If it doesn't break 4495, then I'd look for 4517 later today. ' Young Bull Growing Stronger LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER JULY 17, 2023 I keep looking for meaningful signs of weakness, but it’s like grasping at straws. Even Friday’s downtick didn’t change that. This report shows exactly why I say that and gives some keys to look for as signs that change is a comin’. Non subscribers click here to access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! We’re Not There Yet LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS JULY 16, 2023 The private money and credit creation process and the resulting bull market in stocks is at loggerheads with the Fed’s policy of shrinking the balance sheet. Traders and investors are now in clear violation of The First Commandment, Rule Number One, “Don’t fight the Fed.” The question now becomes who blinks first. The lawbreakers, or the law? Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. A couple of high frequency, real-time measures show us important sources of the money funding this stock market rally. These measures should give us hints of when this process is coming to an end, which will correlate with, if not cause, a stock market top. Non-subscribers, click here for access. So, if you fight the law, will you win? Here’s the answer. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! For moron the markets, see: Young Bull Growing Stronger July 17, 2023 We’re Not There Yet July 16, 2023 One Small Step For Gold, One Giant Leap for Goldkind July 11, 2023 July Starts Ugly After Fabulous June July 10, 2023 Stocks Are Scraping the Ceiling July 9, 2023 Withholding Tax Rebound Sets Up a Bearish Fed Catch 22 July 6, 2023 Golden 13 Week Cycle Turn and Other Hopeful Signs 7/5/23 July 5, 2023 It’s Not Your Daddy’s Liquidity Anymore July 5, 2023 We Now Know What is Driving the Rally June 20, 2023 The Fed’s Slush Fund is Working June 16, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Lots of new photos for you travel bugs! My travel photo blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 17 Author Report Share Posted July 17 Finally, A Few Shorts LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER JULY 17, 2023 I’m adding 5 shorts to the list, against 3 buys. Swing trade stock screens produced 106 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. There were 80 charts with a second sell signal. That’s a significant number on both sides. Most were whipsaw signals. But I did see a few nice setups on both sides when I reviewed the screen output. Non-subscribers click here for access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. Two shorts hit stops last week. I’m closing out one of the buys based on the opening price this morning. After these changes, there will now be 27 active picks on the list, 22 buys, and 5 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access. Last week was a good rebound week for us after a bad start in the first week of the month.. Picks closed out last week, or currently open, show an average theoretical gain of 3.6% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access. 7/10/23 June was solid, with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days. The numbers assume all cash, no leverage, no margin, no options. Non-subscribers click here for access. I have adjusted or added stops on just a few of the picks. The rest I have left without stops because the price and indicator patterns are good, so I will let those ride, with the assumption of risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. Non-subscribers click here for access. Table in report. Non-subscribers click here for access. Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 17 Report Share Posted July 17 What was the strategy to survive 2021-2022 events? Bonds were killed, same as equities and oil. So what was the place to hide at the end of 2021? commodities index / Chevron, Exxon stocks? Im really shocked that inflaton-linked bonds etf lost value in 2022. I have to analyse this a little bit more (maybe that etf was quoted in eur). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 17 Report Share Posted July 17 Not a common knowledge. Everyone heard about sp500. Ive seen and read a lot about passive investing and the smartest guys are proposing following and buying sp400 for your retirement (buy every year). Has better % than sp500 and less big stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 17 Report Share Posted July 17 "Easing inflation, a still-strong labor market and economic resilience led business and academic economists polled by The Wall Street Journal to lower the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 54% from 61% in the prior two surveys." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted July 17 Report Share Posted July 17 GOLDMAN CUTS PROBABILITY OF US RECESSION IN NEXT 12 MONTHS guess who has inventory to distribute.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 17 Author Report Share Posted July 17 So, not a head and shoulders. Double top? I doubt it. 5 day cycle just turned up. Hourly oscillators turned from above the zero line. That's often the precursor to a big extended move. Stand by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 17 Report Share Posted July 17 I keep reading about passive investing. Fascinating. You could buy like Vanguard LifeStrategy which buys stocks and bonds and just cost you 0.25% p.a. which is peanuts. The more I read about it the more I understand how much people lost on bonds and how money older people loat money. Older people the most since most portfolios for them recommend like 80/20 which is 80 bonds and 20% of stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 17 Report Share Posted July 17 I also keep searching for next occasion and i think CRE and e.g. German real estate market could be a nice buy when ecb stop rising rates and the market will clean itselft from higher valuations. Frankly speaking some real estate developers have pretty low valuations right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 17 Report Share Posted July 17 In terms of swing trades the Q is what is the next big thing like AI, including nvidia? I dont see nothing on the horizon but my experience tells me to jump on the bandwagon aa a momentum trade like it was woth crypto, nfts, mem stocks and now Nvidia. Its doest matter whats the PE or if company generates rev at all. Its just temporary mania. but its good to be first and buy those darlings which could give you like 100% or more gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 17 Report Share Posted July 17 2 hours ago, potatohead said: GOLDMAN CUTS PROBABILITY OF US RECESSION IN NEXT 12 MONTHS guess who has inventory to distribute.... its not goldman only. its economist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted July 17 Report Share Posted July 17 Another $12 billion out of RRP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 17 Report Share Posted July 17 1 hour ago, SiP said: I keep reading about passive investing. Fascinating. You could buy like Vanguard LifeStrategy which buys stocks and bonds and just cost you 0.25% p.a. which is peanuts. The more I read about it the more I understand how much people lost on bonds and how money older people loat money. Older people the most since most portfolios for them recommend like 80/20 which is 80 bonds and 20% of stocks. I wrote about that here several times in the past. 2022 was CATASTROPHIC. It was like 2008. Difference is that it didn‘t show up to the same extend in the S&P as in 2008, but if you look at the market as a whole, that‘s stocks AND bonds, 2022 was the worst year for a 60/40 portfolio since 1932! And for portfolios with higher percentage of bonds it was the worst ever I think. Bonds were no safe haven when needed and that alone was a catastrophe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 17 Report Share Posted July 17 ICLN ETF (Global Clean Energy) monthly chart, put in the EMA 50 wick after wick after wick at the EMA50 worth having that one on the watchlist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 17 Author Report Share Posted July 17 Old bond investors never sell. They just roll away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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