SiP Posted July 14 Report Share Posted July 14 RRP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 14 Report Share Posted July 14 Last 10 Years Bitcoin $BTC: +34,302% NVIDIA $NVDA: +13,361% Tesla $TSLA: +3,219% $AMD: +2,505% Apple $AAPL: +1,340% Netflix $NFLX: +1,191% Facebook $META: +1,114% Microsoft $MSFT: +1,052% Amazon $AMZN: +798% Google $GOOGL: +441% S&P 500 $SPY: +223% Gold $GLD: +47% US CPI: +30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted July 14 Report Share Posted July 14 98 COUNTERPARTIES TAKE $1.741 TLN AT FED REVERSE REPO OPERATION. More slush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 14 Author Report Share Posted July 14 2 hours ago, SiP said: https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/2023/07/05/its-not-your-daddys-liquidity-anymore/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 14 Report Share Posted July 14 I got your point Lee that market participants create liquidity without Fed. But whats is interesting is that e.g. margin debt didn't move at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 14 Report Share Posted July 14 Anyone watching Verizon or AT&T on monthly bars? Looks like cliff hanger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 14 Report Share Posted July 14 8 minutes ago, SiP said: Anyone watching Verizon or AT&T on monthly bars? Looks like cliff hanger. AT&T about to break the March 2003 low 🤯 but if you adjust the chart for dividends you are still up 200% from March 2003 lows. VZ is a sell since Jan 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted July 14 Report Share Posted July 14 Earnings season gonna be interesting. That big banks did well, ok, granted. Festivities really begin next week. We had so many consecutive surprisingly good earnings seasons, time for s disappointing one… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 14 Report Share Posted July 14 Im not quite sure. Its a Wallstreet game which is called earnings beats. They keep lowering the forecast and then eventually they beat it. Thats what they do typically. Tesla will be one of the first to report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 14 Report Share Posted July 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 14 Author Report Share Posted July 14 3 hours ago, SiP said: It’s Not Your Daddy’s Liquidity Anymore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 14 Report Share Posted July 14 After the headline CPI fell to 3.0% in June, many are now wondering whether inflation will soon hit 2%. My answer? It’s ALREADY there. Adjusted for spot market rents (using Apartment List data), the CPI was just 0.5% YoY in June - yes, just 0.5%. The core CPI, which fell to 4.8% in June, is now just 1.6% YoY after adjusting for spot market rents. Therefore both headline AND core CPI inflation are already BELOW the Fed’s 2% target after adjusting for spot market rents. Why is there such a difference between the actual CPI numbers, and the numbers after adjusting for spot market rents? The CPI’s rent based measures are extremely LAGGING. The reason for the lag, is that the majority of the CPI’s rental sample consists of fixed lease agreements, of which the most common term is 12 months. As a result, it takes a SIGNIFICANT amount of time for the CPI's rent based measures to reflect actual changes in underlying spot market rents. Today, the difference between the two measures is enormous: CPI rent of shelter rose by 7.9% YoY in June, compared to NEGATIVE 0.1% YoY for the Apartment List Rent Index. Given that they reflect CURRENT price changes, the better metric to monitor to understand CURRENT inflation, is to adjust the CPI for spot market rents. The approach used in the CPI/PCE instead tells us about price changes that have happened as a result of PAST changes in spot market rents, as expiring leases are renewed and adjusted to current spot market rates. This prompts a LAGGED response to inflation as it rises, and a LAGGED response to inflation as it falls. This can greatly exacerbate its highs and lows, as policy is more likely to be set in a manner that is contrary to what underlying inflation trends are signalling. While seeing some MoM moderation from its highs, lagging CPI rent of shelter continues to see relatively high MoM growth - it could thus be another YEAR before the annual change begins to more accurately reflect current underlying changes in spot market rents. Given the enormous weight that rent based measures have in the CPI (and the even larger weight they have in the core CPI), this is likely to significantly increase the length of time required for the unadjusted CPI and unadjusted core CPI to hit 2% YoY. Therefore after failing to adjust the CPI/PCE for spot market rents initially contributed to a lackadaisical response to inflation (which as shown in the above charts, was previously being significantly UNDERSTATED by the lagging rent based measures), it is now creating the opposite problem, whereby the Fed is now likely significantly overtightening policy - not since the depths of the Great Depression has the Fed implemented interest rate hikes while the M2 money supply was declining. As a result, instead of high inflation, the greater medium-term risk that currently faces the US economy, is a deflationary bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 14 Report Share Posted July 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 14 Author Report Share Posted July 14 Fed slush fund down $82 billion this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 14 Author Report Share Posted July 14 If you are copying and pasting other people's work, you must limit it to a short snip, include attribution, and a link to the source. I have noticed reposting of extended quotes of third party work without attribution or links to the source. It needs to stop because you are putting me at risk of takedown orders which are a pain in the ass, and I have no choice but to comply. They threaten lawsuits, which they have the ready availability to file, and which I cannot defend against. So unless you want to indemnify me against loss with a cash payment of $10 million, please use some common sense. I don't have the time to edit posts, by the way. I appreciate your support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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