DrStool Posted July 14, 2023 Report Share Posted July 14, 2023 The last day and a half was supposed to be a 5 day cycle down phase. Well, actually it has been, but instead of going down, first it went up, then it went sideways. The hourly cycle oscillators are in fact mostly heading lower, but at very high absolute levels. The next low is due early Monday. That implies that today should be sideways to down, a low early Monday, and then blast off. The classical measured move target of the base breakout on the hourly chart of the ES 24 hour S&P fucutures is 4520-4530. That's pretty much done, but it does not guarantee that the market will stop and roll over. It depends. First, if the ES is above 4500 at the close today, that would be bullish. Then, there's a trend resistance cluster in the 4530-40 area. If they clear that, ohmagawd. The market hasn't really been cycling in a visible way, but the trace of that 1.5 day cycle I mentioned earlier this week is still there, and it should be bottoming as I write, closing in on 6 AM ET. That would support another blastoff in the New York regular trading hours this morning. In any case, the market gods have been good to Technical Trader subscribers this week, after a ragged start in July. Things have gone very well indeed after that itty bitty drawdown to start the month. It was apparently just a matter of the dealers and market makers wanting to load up with inventory before marking up and distributing it. I keep coming back to the fact the the Fed's RRP slush fund is working. It dropped another $53 billion yesterday, spurring a rally not just in stocks but also in bonds. Since May 22, $508 billion has come out of that pool. Most of it went to buy T-bills which are perfect private repo collateral. Can't wait to see how much they rose this week, but that data is only available with a 9 day lag after the close on Fridays. One thing that we do get in real time is money market fund data. Institutional funds saw withdrawals of $25 billion this week. That's huge too. These flows are all a sign of raging animal spirits. I will give a complete overview and forecast in the next Liquidity Trader update which I plan to post this weekend. Get informed here. Meanwhile, the 10 year Treasury yield has reached a critical juncture. Supply is still coming, and the Fed is still draining money from the system. I know which way my bet would be. Even gold is showing promise here. We actually began to see positive signs in the July 6 report. Meanwhile, in currency land, the EUR/USD has broken out. The conventional measured move target is somewhere around 1.25. I am locked in with enough cash in EUR for the next two years, but my USD income looks like it will be getting devalued in the months ahead. I can't hedge it fast enough. For moron the markets, see: One Small Step For Gold, One Giant Leap for Goldkind July 11, 2023 July Starts Ugly After Fabulous June July 10, 2023 Stocks Are Scraping the Ceiling July 9, 2023 Withholding Tax Rebound Sets Up a Bearish Fed Catch 22 July 6, 2023 Golden 13 Week Cycle Turn and Other Hopeful Signs 7/5/23 July 5, 2023 It’s Not Your Daddy’s Liquidity Anymore July 5, 2023 We Now Know What is Driving the Rally June 20, 2023 The Fed’s Slush Fund is Working June 16, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Lots of new photos for you travel bugs! My travel photo blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 14, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2023 There are more 7-Eleven stores in Copenhagen than there are in the entire state of Texas. How did this happen? It's disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 14, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted July 14, 2023 Report Share Posted July 14, 2023 12 minutes ago, DrStool said: There are more 7-Eleven stores in Copenhagen than there are in the entire state of Texas. How did this happen? It's disgusting. >: so much for the "Southland Corporation" >:: most of the ones in D/FW Tx. are now various named "Marts" (and less kept) >::: The 7-Eleven down the street from my dad's old house is now a "Uniroyal 76" store/gas station which seems very odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 14, 2023 Report Share Posted July 14, 2023 Lee, how you come up with 1.25 on EURUSD? its still in channel and actually now hitting resistance at 1.13. If they break out - then its like 1.20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 14, 2023 Report Share Posted July 14, 2023 Same with DXY - its hitting support here - (200 EMA on weekly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 14, 2023 Report Share Posted July 14, 2023 DXY on monthly basis also looks promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 14, 2023 Report Share Posted July 14, 2023 DAX red.....hahahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 14, 2023 Report Share Posted July 14, 2023 JP Morgan Chase&Co and United Health (also performing above forecasts) are components of the Dow Jones Industrial index. So, after two weak sessions compared to the other two indices, the Dow Jones index at the start of trading will get another chance to fight against the resistance that has been blocking the index's growth for more than six months. For now, Dow Jones Industrial index futures are up around 0.5% in reaction to the banks data. It is also worth mentioning that yesterday we could already see the first reaction of share prices to the improved performance of PepsiCo and Delta Airlines. PepsiCo rose in after-hours trading following results of around 2%, hence the start of trading started with a rise and a subsequent realisation. By the end, however, the price was up 2%. Delta Airlines' share price, on the other hand, rose as much as 4% in after-hours trading after the results. However, after the start of the session, investors proceeded to realise their gains and the end of trading came at a 0.5% loss. As we are well aware, in general, share prices have been rising for almost the entire quarter (in the case of Delta Airlines, these were quite substantial increases of around 30% in Q2), so one cannot be surprised by the motivation to realise profits in the case of companies with good Q2 results and strong share price increases in Q2 at the same time. Will this pattern be repeated for other companies? We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 14, 2023 Report Share Posted July 14, 2023 JPM EPS USD 4.37 (expected USD 3.96, previously USD 4.1). Revenue USD 41.3 billion (expected USD 39.15 billion, previously USD 3.83 billion). The stock is up more than 2% in after-hours trading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 14, 2023 Report Share Posted July 14, 2023 Wells Fargo EPS USD 1.25 (expected USD 1.18, previously USD 1.23). Revenue US$20.53 billion (expected US$20.1 billion, previously US$20.73 billion). The stock is up approximately 3% in after-hours trading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 14, 2023 Report Share Posted July 14, 2023 Citi EPS of US$1.33 (expected US$1.3, previously US$1.86).Revenue of US$19.4bn (expected US$19.27bn, previously US$21.4bn).The stock is up around 1% in after-hours trading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 14, 2023 Report Share Posted July 14, 2023 United Health EPS USD 6.14 (expected USD 6.06, previously USD 6.26). Revenue US$92.9bn (expected US$90.94bn, previously US$91.9bn). The share price is up around 2% in after-hours trading following these results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 14, 2023 Report Share Posted July 14, 2023 State street EPS USD 2.17 (expected USD 2.11, previously USD 1.52). Revenue USD 3.11 billion (expected USD 3.14 billion, previously USD 3.1 billion). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted July 14, 2023 Report Share Posted July 14, 2023 DJIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.