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Sun Comes Out 07/13/23

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1 hour ago, potatohead said:
98 counterparties take $1.767T at Fed Reverse Repo Operation

Down 53 billion might be the biggest drop ever excluding the quarterly turns. 

Slush is good. Slush is right. 

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I saw a chart for US that presented record (or huge) consensus beats (citi index) - so US economy is really doing fine. Even Russel probably will break out to the upside.


The 1 mln dollar Q for me is - WHO will blink first? Fed who will lower the Fed rate in Dec 2023 or in Feb 2024 when they would see huge drop in inflation or Market which will explode by the monetary effect taking bite. Lets remember that in 2007 we also had more than 5% rates. It eventually bites. So currently market is having a huge global party - unwinding bullish dollar bets, unwinding bearish bonds bets since there is no US recession, we have really soft landing and global economy, especially service economy is doing really fine. The major problem is manufacturing and Asian economies. But even here some people keep saying that worst is over.  So if you invest in US markets and global risk thats my 1 mln dollar. Will Fed lower the rates before the high rates really bites?

The M&A market is almost frozen (outside bigtech), startups are bleeding cash, even bigtech (like META) is focusing on cost optimisation instead of Metavers (thats why there was HUGE move @ Meta). Some corporations took credit at much lower yield and we dont have any refinancing till mid 2024 or even 2025. So there is a chance that this fancy bleeding cash investments could survive the Fed.


In terms of Europe. Thats a different story. Thats why in US Growth stocks were doing fine (like bigtech) and in Europe its about Value investing. Europe, I think, more about manufacturing and maybe much more connected to China (which is exporting deflation now). So Europe is a different story.

There is also different story for EMFX like MXN, CZK or PLN. Some EM investments are rerouted here - from China to Mexico (re-shoring), CEE region in Europe etc.


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27 minutes ago, fxfox said:

ARKK monthly inverted chart:

Would you go long?

I dont like ARKK. I prefer to bet on underlings like Tesla or Coin. I cant keep up on the components of Cathie Woods portfolio.

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I've just made 46% on XRP within couple hours. but... I invested just couple k dollars. Im too terrified to put 0,5 mln USD in XRP. Nevertheless alt coins got another life probably. That was really huge win.

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In US consumer disc are doing great (XLY ETF) instead of consumer staples (XLP), same with Tech ETF vs healthcare, utilities etc. Is a typical move in bull market and upswing in economy. Really its how it looks like.

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