DrStool Posted June 8, 2023 Report Share Posted June 8, 2023 The May 19-23 anal log on the chart of the ES 24 hour S&P futures is on the verge of being crushed. There may be no flush. Instead, the bubbly inflated mass of s... s... uh... s- stocks! yeah that's it! will simply float higher. Clearing 4273 might do it, although bears will have a final opportunity to force it down at 4275. Above that, squeezing will only force it higher in the tract. And so it goes. But is there any chance that bears could snatch the smell of victory from the jaws of the feet? Yes, but only if they can hold it here, and then if it drops down to 4254. If it drops below that, then the anal log would still be valid, and it could then really let loose and everything would go in the toilet. The Bulls Are Full of It I don't know how anyone could see things any other way. Speaking of working out, looks like the hedgies' record big Treasury market hedge may be working out. But the dealers are still net long. They're always the ones who cause systemic instability and market crashes. Smartest guys in the room, my ass. Watch 3.89 on the 10 year. If they clear it, it's gonna be trouble. Investors Breathe Sigh of Relief But D-Day Is Now Gold? sigh. Gold Set Up for This Cycle Low For moron the markets, see: Gold Set Up for This Cycle Low June 7, 2023 Investors Breathe Sigh of Relief But D-Day Is Now June 6, 2023 The Bulls Are Full of It une 4, 2023 Incomprehensible, That’s What You Are June 2, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – Growing Long Side Gains June 2, 2023 Gold Gets Closer to the Bottom May 30, 2023 Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead May 25, 2023 The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted June 8, 2023 Report Share Posted June 8, 2023 stocks positive, more initials jobless claims, less fed rate rises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted June 8, 2023 Report Share Posted June 8, 2023 of course its bearish for dollar and bullish for bonds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted June 8, 2023 Report Share Posted June 8, 2023 We need couple mlns of jobless people and SPX could hit 5000 this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 8, 2023 Report Share Posted June 8, 2023 Well, seems like cycles reign over liquidity. I thought cycles are the reflection/consequence of liquidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted June 8, 2023 Report Share Posted June 8, 2023 The small-cap Russell 2,000 closed at its most overbought level relative to its 50-DMA in its history yesterday at 3.7 standard deviations above. Prior high was in January 1991. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 8, 2023 Report Share Posted June 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, SiP said: The small-cap Russell 2,000 closed at its most overbought level relative to its 50-DMA in its history yesterday at 3.7 standard deviations above. Prior high was in January 1991. Well, if you look at the monthly Jan 1991 was the start of the monster 90s Rusty bull… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 8, 2023 Report Share Posted June 8, 2023 Rates at zero, S&P at 4200 Rates at 5, S&P at 4200 Questions? ANYONE on earth, their dog, horse, step child, grandma and pa said that it is a law by nature that an stock index will be much lower at rates at 5 compared to with rates at 0 and espacially under a regime where the CB reduces its balance sheet! Where is this effing liqui comming from????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted June 8, 2023 Report Share Posted June 8, 2023 looks like the employment data is starting to side with Lee's analysis. U.S INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS ACTUAL: 261K VS 232K PREVIOUS; EST 235K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted June 8, 2023 Report Share Posted June 8, 2023 wave three underway for silva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 8, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 8, 2023 2-3 day cycle projection 4290-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 8, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 8, 2023 3 hours ago, fxfox said: Rates at zero, S&P at 4200 Rates at 5, S&P at 4200 Questions? ANYONE on earth, their dog, horse, step child, grandma and pa said that it is a law by nature that an stock index will be much lower at rates at 5 compared to with rates at 0 and espacially under a regime where the CB reduces its balance sheet! Where is this effing liqui comming from????????? What do interest rates have to do with the stock market? Absolutely nothing. - J. Granville 2 hours ago, potatohead said: looks like the employment data is starting to side with Lee's analysis. U.S INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS ACTUAL: 261K VS 232K PREVIOUS; EST 235K I guess the analysis is that the US Treasury's withholding tax data is real and the BLS employment estimates are bullshit. Claims are also real data. So what was the low point in claims and when was it. It might square with the tax data. Particularly continuing claims. They should be in a solid uptrend. Haven't looked at that data in a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 8, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 8, 2023 Interesting juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 8, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 8, 2023 Running 65k per week more than at the low. This is total new claims, so it accumulates. Only continuing claims reflects those currently collecting UC comp. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/2023/06/06/investors-breathe-sigh-of-relief-but-d-day-is-now/ There are 400k more on the rolls now than last October, the low point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted June 8, 2023 Report Share Posted June 8, 2023 32 minutes ago, DrStool said: Interesting juncture. That overlap of green is blinding..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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