DrStool Posted June 1, 2023 Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 Yesterday, half tongue in cheek, I headlined our thread, Sell the News. But I noted that we didn't know what the news would be. But still... Now we know. And so, the debt ceiling deal is done. Which truthfully, I did not expect. But apparently, there are still enough pragmatists to avoid finding out what the other side of this could have looked like. Hate to admit that there's a part of me that would have liked to have seen it. It would have been interesting. But the can has been kicked, and so we go on to face the coming deluge of Treasury paper that will hit the market so as to refund Peter, after the US Treasury robbed his money to pay Paul. That amounts to $600 billion or so on top of the usual $100 billion or so of new debt the Treasury must float on average every month. We don't yet know how they will schedule that. Take all the pain in the short run, or spread it out? We should probably have some idea in the coming days, and I'll cover it and tell what we can expect as a result in upcoming episodes of Days of Our Lives As the World Turns General Hospital. AKA Liquidity Trader Money Trends. Late this evening, the updated Daily Treasury Statement for May 31 will be posted. I'll post an update on withholding tax collections for the month. It's the best way to know how jobs and the US economy overall are really doing, and what direction they're headed (last month here). I took a peek last week, and it wasn't good. Moron this in the report to be posted As for today, what can you say. Same old, same old trading range. 5 day cycle low is in. Today should be the up phase, whether in absolute terms, or just flat. That's the question, up or flat, not to be or not to be. For it to be "up" must take out 4200 on the ES, 24 hour S&P fugutures hourly chart. For a downside surprise, need to break 4167. Looking at a 2 hour bar basis, the perspective looks bullish. But more time and work needed to achieve that intraday trend breakout. That Seventies Show The big question now is what's gonna happen with the bond market. Because that will be the source of the systemic collapse. And did gold just bottom? Gold Gets Closer to the Bottom For moron the markets, see: That Seventies Show May 30, 2023 Gold Gets Closer to the Bottom May 30, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – Numbers Lean Bearish, Charts Don’tMay 26, 2023 Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead May 25, 2023 The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023 The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mkucstars Posted June 1, 2023 Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 Gold puts in bottom? Puts gold in bottom? I'm so confused, where should I put my gold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mkucstars Posted June 1, 2023 Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 Sell in May and go away? Or short the sucker... Great news, we won't be defaulting on our massive debt... yet. We still have ink and paper. Lack of funds easily solved! A trillion here, a trillion there, pretty soon it adds up to real money. Keep on borrowing, suckers. Hope they have steel toed boots, that can is getting pretty big and heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 The Imaginot Line is now 4195. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 Gone South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 Previous low 4167. Watch the show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 Check out where the buyers came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 Looks like a heading for the Dick Trickle Memorial Point at 4175.5 or 4176.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted June 1, 2023 Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 silver on third wave trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 1, 2023 Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 Bears had the chance to put in a blow off top. More or less invalid now. Now it will be said „that‘s the monthly inflows, once they vanish, we gonna go down the crapper“. See, there is always a „reason“ why we won‘t go higher… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 1, 2023 Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 Italian 10 year yield looks topish on the monthly… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted June 1, 2023 Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 2007 (Housing Bubble) 2008 Return -37.00% 2020 & 2021 (Covid - Trillions in Government Stimulus) 2022 Return -18.11% 1998 & 1999 (Dot.com Bubble) 2000 -9.10% / 2001 -11.89% / 2002 -22.10% 2023 (AI Stupidity) 2024 returns ?, (at a ridicules +100% top 10) What, you should worry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted June 1, 2023 Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 Let‘s face it: They will NOT just issue a shitload of paper and send the S&P down 1000 points within a few weeks. They will stretch it, or introduce some new voodoo stuff or whatnot. The damage was done in 2022. You have to look at markets as a whole, at least stocks AND bonds. For a 60/40 fartpolio 2022 was one of the worst years EVER, it was an absolute catastrophe. Where are the SPAC‘s? Poof! Gone! They are not there anymore. Look how many stocks are down 80, 90%, look where ARKK is and where it was… It is simply absolutely not true that nothing has happened yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 I went out to dinner. What did I miss? Was there some news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 It's a weak cyclical bull market within a long term secular bear market. News flash. My picks have done really well lately. 17 longs and one short. The longs are doing ok. Some nice winners but a few pieces of shit. And the biggest gainer is a short. A retailer that I never heard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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