Don't Read Stuff, Watch Data - 5/26/23

[DrStool]

There's a lot of stuff out there that purports to be economic, monetary, and liquidity analysis. I don't read other people's stuff. There's no point. Markets don't anticipate and they don't discount the future. Anyone who successfully anticipates a big change in the market more often than not is just lucky. Very few people do it more than once. They become very famous, often living on past laurels, not repeating their success, but not needing to. 

It's not a chess game. Chess involves planning. Markets involve random, usually unknowable human responses to the attempts of policy makers to direct and channel what is inherently chaos. If you try to anticipate, well, they're gonna make this move, and that will be the response and then they'll make that move and then this will be the next response... I mean, come on. Get real.  

Follow the data. Don't overthink, and don't make shit up and you'll be fine. 

So what if you miss a major turn by 3 weeks. You won't be betting wrong and losing money for 6 months or a couple of years before. More money is lost by being too early than by being a little late.  

When I do macro liquidity analysis, all I want to do, and can do, is try to correctly identify the existing trend or trends, and try to notice when they are changing. If we are paying attention, then we'll see the signs of change as they begin to crop up. So you won't be too late.  

I see signs of it now in the latest data. It's early, but change is coming. Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead But the most important fact is that liquidity analysis merely sets the context. Knowing context is what helps us to better understand and act on the technical charts in the right direction at the right time. 

Meanwhile, we focus here on the day to day. The ES 24 hour S&P fuguetures are our muse. They're due for 3 and 5 day cycle highs this morning. But we can't rule out an extension. Another triangle is forming that should signal what comes next. The top line falls from 4164 to 4161 today. The lower line rises from 4145 to 4161. Break either of those lines, and we have a signal as to what's likely for the next really big move. I mean, could be as much as 3 or 4 points. 

In other words, why expect follow through now, when we haven't had any since time immemorial? OK, ok, if they clear 4155 with momo, then there's a conventional measured move target of 4205. To get there, they'd need to clear trend resistance at 4163, and the pivot high of 4166. 

4161 is the Dick Trickle Memorial Point, and it's due at the end of regular trading in New York. Would be a fitting end to the day.  Non Functional GPS Market

Meanwhile the 10 year Treasury yield marches toward its measured move target of 3.92, which is about where it would also run into trend resistance. Hell! Why stop there? Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead

Meanwhile, gold, the standard bearer of the eternal flame of unrequited love has come down to a big trend sport line. Will this be the day it finally says yes, it will marry you? Let's see. Gold’s Immaculate Correction

For moron the markets, see:

• Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster AheadMay 25, 2023
• Non Functional GPS Market May 22, 2023
• Swing Trade Chart Picks – Let’s Get Ready to Rumble May 18, 2023
• Gold’s Immaculate Correction May 19, 2023
• The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023
• Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown May 4, 2023
• The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023

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[DrStool]

Swing Trade Chart Picks – Numbers Lean Bearish, Charts Don’t

LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER MAY 26, 2023

Swing trade stock screens produced 50 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. Four of those were inverse ETFs, for a net bullish total of 46. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

There were 172 charts with a second sell signal. That’s a lot of sell signals, and only one of them was an inverse ETF. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Should we be excited? Given that rangebound markets have a propensity to generate constant whipsaws, I would still take these numbers with a grain of salt. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The goal is to keep from being chewed up in the meat grinder. Lately I’ve managed to do that successfully, but at the same time, the gains have been insignificant. Last week the average gain was 2.7% on an average holding period of 18 calendar days. Six picks were closed out by either deciding to close on the open last Thursday, or by hitting stops. These are shown on the table below (subscriber version). Non-subscribers click here for access.

After 3 of the shorts were closed out, that left one active short and 14 buys. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There were too many signals this week to visually review all of the charts but I looked at most of them, including all 50 buys. The theme again was tech, tech, tech, particularly semiconductors. I added 4 buys to the list, bringing the total of open picks to 18 buys and one short. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I reviewed about 100 of the sells. They were mostly signals in the context of rangebound noise with ambiguous setups. Many of the signals were in health care, real estate, and other interest sensitive sectors. But I saw no setups that were compelling enough to add to the list. There was too much ambiguity in the charts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

[Jimbo]

THE MAGNIFICENT 7 MARKET

Apple, Micosoft, Alpabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla. 

Since January its been all magnificent 7 up 44%.

The rest of the S&P 500 has only risen 1%.

Can you call that a bull market??????

Looks like the end of a bull market......not the start. 

Idea for new ETF's:

The Magnificent 7 ETF, the Magnificent 7 Short ETF.

 

[MisFit Kid]

The S&P 7, et. ai.......

The Big Gun Theory

Head Hanchos, Big Chesse, Uno Brunos, El Guapo........

 

>: and new highs for the US "Holiday", for some.....

[fxfox]

2 hours ago, Jimbo said:

THE MAGNIFICENT 7 MARKET

Apple, Micosoft, Alpabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla. 

Since January its been all magnificent 7 up 44%.

The rest of the S&P 500 has only risen 1%.

Can you call that a bull market??????

Looks like the end of a bull market......not the start. 

Idea for new ETF's:

The Magnificent 7 ETF, the Magnificent 7 Short ETF.

 

Hmm, dunno. Usually at the end of a bull the absolute shit is bought.

And the rest of the S&P? Well, there we have names like Campbell Soup. Why should i buy that? Because Andy Warhol painted a picture about that 50 years ago?

[DrStool]

7 hours ago, DrStool said:

OK, ok, if they clear 4155 with momo, then there's a conventional measured move target of 4205.

Wow. 

[Jorma]

The bullishness is justified on the details of the Deal. There will be what amounts to stupendous cuts in non discretionary spending going forward,  which is only13% of the total budget. especially considering inflation, The kicker is they will be automatic, in other words no votes on those items every year come budget time. It essentially incentivizes inflation in an odd way.

[DrStool]

1 hour ago, fxfox said:

Hmm, dunno. Usually at the end of a bull the absolute shit is bought.

And the rest of the S&P? Well, there we have names like Campbell Soup. Why should i buy that? Because Andy Warhol painted a picture about that 50 years ago?

They said the same thing about Arm and Hammer baking soda in 1982. 

[DrStool]

Next target 4228.

[fxfox]

28 minutes ago, DrStool said:

They said the same thing about Arm and Hammer baking soda in 1982. 

dunno about that, but I trust you 😂

What I meant: Just because „the rest of the S&P“ isn‘t baught with both hands doesn‘t mean that the current upmove is invalid or a sign of a late bull. It was even 40, 50, 60 years ago the case that the index is bombed higher just because of a few stocks. Maybe back then it were 15 or 20, now it is 7, ok, granted.

Pretty sure IBM went up BEFORE Black & Decker in 1982. But back then Grantham et. al said „no bull, B&D isn‘t baught“.

Oh and regarding Campbell Soup: In 1982 you could have baught it at 2, now trading at 52, if you adjust for dividends you baught it for 52 CENTS, that‘s a 100 bagger.

Oh and just another thing: Remember in 2002/03 when EVERYONE ON EARTH definitely KNEW FOR A FACT that Nasdaq would go back to its 1994/95 breakout level? It never happened…

[fxfox]

deleted

[fxfox]

Deleted.

[DrStool]

The company is called Church and Dwight. Look at the price in 1980 versus today. Doesn't get much more boring than baking soda.

[DrStool]

Oh. Janet now says that the D-Day is June 5th. She's wrong. It's June 6th.

I said a couple weeks ago it would be June 6th to the 13th. This is not rocket science. It is simple trend extrapolation. 

These Wall Street fuckers all pretend that It's more complicated than quantum mechanics. 

From from Malbork Poland, I bid you a dobranoc and dobre weekend! 

 

 

 

[SiP]

Malbork is known for its castle"from Malbork Poland, I bid you a dobranoc and dobre weekend!  "

Dobry weekend dobry is singular, dobre is plural.

What do you do Doc in Malbork? Sightseeing? Malbork is of course known for its castle (medieval amd crusader's time).