Jump to content

Stocks - The Safe Haven, Risk Off Play 5/25/23


Recommended Posts

That's not a laughable concept anymore.

As expected, the 5 day cycle bottomed yesterday. It did so just a hair below the sport lines we pointed to in the pre market yesterday. So far, nothing terrible has happened yet. Today doesn't look like the day either, unless you're a bear, in which case all days are terrible. This market just won't knuckle under to common sense. Sorry, it doesn't work like that. 

So we should expect a 5 day cycle up phase to benefit stocks until tomorrow. The ES, 24 hour S&P futures should head toward resistance around 4150. If it gets there, a conventional measured move would suggest a target of 4180-85. Getting there would suggest a subsequent drive to 4205. That's where the market will hit the roof, so to speak. 

106iho

Meanwhile, the base breakout on the 10 year yield suggests a target of 3.98. That's not a good thing. For anybody. Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead

106im7

 

For moron the markets, see:

If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.  

If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 15
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Anyone hearing anything about a stock with the ticker NVDA?  If you dig deep into the dark web seems to be a small amount of talk about something called AI...

NON-STOP DRUM BEATING... sheer madness... took a large position in NVDS at under 9.10, would like a NVDA pop above the round number of 400 to take an even MUCH larger position...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You guys trying to short big tech and tech stock - GOOD LUCK. why do you want to short the most bullish and toughest stocks? Of course you could be hero, but why not make money instead? Why not short or play with small and medium companies? why not look at the weakness here and there and pick up the laggard? Or look for break at energy sector I guess. Why to make a life so hard? I hate pain. I will not short tech, they can fall without me, i dont see a problem.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Debt ceiling? What debt ceiling? 

Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly
Held Maturing
Net New Cash 
06/01/2023 Bills $169,000 $105,011 $63,989
05/31/2023 Coupons $150,000 $89,750 $60,250

Modestly Hedged Dealers, Record Short Hedge Funds Suggest Disaster Ahead

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, DrStool said:

we should expect a 5 day cycle up phase to benefit stocks until tomorrow. The ES, 24 hour S&P futures should head toward resistance around 4150. If it gets there, a conventional measured move would suggest a target of 4180-85. Getting there would suggest a subsequent drive to 4205. That's where the market will hit the roof, so to speak. 

106ohy

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, SiP said:

You guys trying to short big tech and tech stock - GOOD LUCK. why do you want to short the most bullish and toughest stocks? Of course you could be hero, but why not make money instead? Why not short or play with small and medium companies? why not look at the weakness here and there and pick up the laggard? Or look for break at energy sector I guess. Why to make a life so hard? I hate pain. I will not short tech, they can fall without me, i dont see a problem.

To quote Willie Sutton "That's where the money is"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For me its like catching the falling knife. Its always better to follow the trend. I never seen a guru who during 20 years made great contrarian bets. Its ultra tough thing to pick a top or bottom in such a strong trends. Its best way to lose money. I would say to myself (if i could back to 2004 when i started trading) - forget about betting on the other side of major trends. focus on weakness or strength based on current trend. leave everything else to twitter, media and instagram celebrities. 

 

there is a famous quote in Poland - "money likes silence" (Pieniądze lubią ciszę)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I want a merger of Coke, McDonalds, Teladoc and a random insulin producer.

Business model of that merged company is to be a one-stop-shop of the whole diabetes chain.

First we make folks insulin resistant with all kinds of soft drinks and ultra processed junk food. Then they become fat like a pig. At that point Teladoc comes into play: Fatty Fatman goes to the Doc and tells him:“Doc, I‘m so fat and lazy and my heart beats quite weird, what can I do?“ „Well Fatman, you have diabetes, but we have that amazing insulin jab!“

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, fxfox said:

could you please have a look at that? Takes a while to work thru the whole thread, but seems to be interesting. Thank you 🙂

At your request, I read the first 3 tweets and immediately smelled self-important bullshit. 

Any Treasury buyback program isn't really a buyback program, when there's no surplus. They have to sell new debt to buy back old debt. The idea that it will add liquidity is utter bullshit. Without surplus, the Treasury can't add liquidity. The Fed can. The banking system can. But the Treasury only can if it is sitting on a ton of cash, with more cash flowing in than out. 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I read on. Pitiful ignorance. This is why I don't read other people's stuff. There's no point. Markets don't anticipate and they don't discount the future. Follow the data and don't make shit up and you'll be fine. 

So what if you miss the turn by 3 weeks. You won't be betting wrong and losing money for 6 months or a couple of years before. More money is being lost by being too early than by being a little late. 

And if you are paying attention, you won't be too late. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, DrStool said:

At your request, I read the first 3 tweets and immediately smelled self-important bullshit. 

Any Treasury buyback program isn't really a buyback program, when there's no surplus. They have to sell new debt to buy back old debt. The idea that it will add liquidity is utter bullshit. Without surplus, the Treasury can't add liquidity. The Fed can. The banking system can. But the Treasury only can if it is sitting on a ton of cash, with more cash flowing in than out. 

 

 

Thanks a lot Doc! 😎

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • ×
    • Create New...