ThorAss Posted March 31, 2003 Report Share Posted March 31, 2003 George Bush crowned Emporer Highly Dubya I. Pictures at 11. Back here in reality land I caught some sleep last night for a change. Complacency? Not really, my link went down so I went to bed. To answer one of Charmin's questions from earlier, I think I wrote we should see 98.7 in this decline on the US$. I see we're at 99.5 so we're within striking distance. I wonder what people's thoughts and observations are on the relative underperformance of the bigcap golds compared to the middies. Gold up more than $1 early after hours. I see we marginally beat the $4 rule. Don't tell me the suppression team is having trouble keeping all of their balls in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
speculator Posted March 31, 2003 Report Share Posted March 31, 2003 . I wonder what people's thoughts and observations are on the relative underperformance of the bigcap golds compared to the middies. Its a bit disturbing since that often marks the end of a move. I'm expecting HUI to hit ~136 on this cycle and there is still quite a few weeks left to go so I'll just hang on to my hedges for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted March 31, 2003 Report Share Posted March 31, 2003 One scenario which comes to mind...the broads and HUI both show increasing volatility in an expanding trading range with their waves moving generally opposite to each other. Here is the scenario which scares me. Triple top breakout/failure and down to 200 on the POG. The significant top and subsequent bear phase in the golds would correspond with a good bottom and a lasting bull cycle in the broads towards the end of the year. This makes sense for now until the LT and IT cycles line up. Edit: changed chart to something more esquisitely demented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted April 1, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 You hear a lot of nonsense about "the war premium" on gold. I think I "know" approximately how much it is. It is $15 to $30, or was. It is zero now. That bit that sticks up above the channel was probably this premium. Since we went all the way down to the bottom of the channel in a kind of H&S move I would say we've worked that off. Now that we have the cycles lining up in gold's favour and plenty of doubt in this rally, I think we can start moving gold and the PMS higher. What's it going to take to turn trending123 bullish on the suctor? I wonder! I remember him being ravingly bearish along with savvy charts at just this point in the last cycle. I think he tends to myopia. If he would zoom out occasionally he might see a more bullish picture. Still , his TA work is sound and he's worth following. Charmin usually provides the links before the start of play. We should conduct a poll. What is more likely, $400 gold in 2003 or this being the last year of professional baseball as we know it? Happy hitting. Assmaster, That scenario doesn't scare me because for one, I expect I'll be out long before any major decline and will have sold my PMS for a profit and as for the physical I hold, it is peanuts but what a chance $200 will be to acquire more and think how cheap you'll be able to snap up the likes of GG and GLG for. Drool Drooy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SevenOfEleven Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 One scenario which comes to mind...the broads and HUI both show increasing volatility in an expanding trading range with their waves moving generally opposite to each other. Here is the scenario which scares me. Triple top breakout/failure and down to 200 on the POG. The significant top and subsequent bear phase in the golds would correspond with a good bottom and a lasting bull cycle in the broads towards the end of the year. This makes sense for now until the LT and IT cycles line up. Nice chart AM. Same with your bullish version. You do those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 Thor: I suppose that until the cycles on Goldheart and the Stool line up, we will have to be very astute traders, taking partial profits at resistance points and buying back lower. Crap, I suck as a trader. Time to set stops and honor them, I guess. Could be very profitable for good traders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 One scenario which comes to mind...the broads and HUI both show increasing volatility in an expanding trading range with their waves moving generally opposite to each other. Here is the scenario which scares me. Triple top breakout/failure and down to 200 on the POG. The significant top and subsequent bear phase in the golds would correspond with a good bottom and a lasting bull cycle in the broads towards the end of the year. This makes sense for now until the LT and IT cycles line up. Nice chart AM. Same with your bullish version. You do those? 7of11: Guilty. Who else would use stockcharts? I think to be properly neutral, I will have to assume this scenario. Examle: My target of 127 was hit and yet I took no profits because I was greedy and think the miners will launch without me. Until I and other goldbugs get that thinking shaken out of us, we can't really launch. I'm still too bullish and the cycles are not aligned. So it's the trading range until it's not. The outcome depends on a variety of factors, which we cannot tell until we get there. So any of those turns could be the one that releases out of the bowtie...perhaps just like for the broads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted April 1, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 I don't know Ass but unless I believed like trending123 that this is just a DCB (meow!) and if I was a self-proclaimed crap trader then I'd be holding tight to my PMS shares. ... er, which I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted April 1, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 Let's not get overly pessimistic. The $ is falling. Gold is rallying and the PMS continued up after a strong move Friday. Okay the candle we printed in certain circumstances could be viewed as negative but look back to October at this point in the last cycle. I thought we might print like Oct 23 falling back a bit. Instead we printed like Oct 29, a breakout with a pullback. So here's my prediction. A quiet inside day to the upside tomorrow, say close around 124.5. On Wed, a false start followed by a pullback to about 120. On Thurs we get a bullish engulfing closing on the HOD just under today's high. Fri we test back down to 124.5 then break-out above 127. We continue the rally into next week with a high reaching 136 +/- 4 before we get a pullback for the rest of April back to where we are now and the set up for the big May rally. At this point this is my only acenario, so I'll give it 100% chance of success. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted April 1, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 I'm busy this morning. Here's as good a reason for any as to why we stopped where we did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
speculator Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 Let's not get overly pessimistic. The $ is falling. Gold is rallying and the PMS continued up after a strong move Friday. Okay the candle we printed in certain circumstances could be viewed as negative but look back to October at this point in the last cycle. I thought we might print like Oct 23 falling back a bit. Instead we printed like Oct 29, a breakout with a pullback. So here's my prediction. A quiet inside day to the upside tomorrow, say close around 124.5. On Wed, a false start followed by a pullback to about 120. On Thurs we get a bullish engulfing closing on the HOD just under today's high. Fri we test back down to 124.5 then break-out above 127. We continue the rally into next week with a high reaching 136 +/- 4 before we get a pullback for the rest of April back to where we are now and the set up for the big May rally. At this point this is my only acenario, so I'll give it 100% chance of success. :grin: It seems that when the longer term cycle (8-10 months) is heading down, like it is now, the 80 day cycle is muted. This is why I dont think we will bust the mid 130's this time around. Hope I'm wrong but either way it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted April 1, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 Here's the first of the DAu (alphabetically speaking.) It looks better than the Zow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted April 1, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 Spec, I appreciate your fears about the mid 130s level as an area which may well contain the market for some time but I'm not afraid of the 8 - 10 month cycle. I like to use cycles as a rough guide but for the details I prefer patterns and seasonals. I truly expect May to be strong like last year. This is in our favour. The patterns are setting up well now for a good rally. As for the 8 to 10 month cycle my problem is that these wavelengths are not constant and are sometimes prone to "inverting" which I take to be the actual cycle length and the fixed wavelength get so out of whack that they become roughly 180 degrees out of phase. With the 4 month cycle being like 4 to 5 and the 8 to 10, these can easily move in and out of phase not necessarily causing perfectly constructive or destructive interference. But it may well be that our next "big high doesn't come for 1 1/2 cycles from now or 6 to 7 1/2 months which would put it in the October/November area which is a seasonal I don'r favour. End of December I could go along with. Anyway assuming a pretty normal half-cycle from a low here we should see our high in June. I have trouble believing that the muting effect of the longer cycle will keep us suppressed to the mid 130s by then. Hell, we could be there tomorrow form where we are now. Just my thoughts. The ravings of a lunatick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 Okay, bottom line...forget all the comlicated charts I made. Train just departed. Are you on board? Waiting for pullbacks below 110 to buy? Ain't gonna happen. If it does, GMTFO because the bull is dead for now. Look carefully at the patterns and you'll see what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormydaze Posted April 1, 2003 Report Share Posted April 1, 2003 Okay, bottom line...forget all the comlicated charts I made. Train just departed. Are you on board? Waiting for pullbacks below 110 to buy? Ain't gonna happen. If it does, GMTFO because the bull is dead for now. I'm on board, not waiting for any pullbacks, and the 4 legged steak ain't dead yet! ThorryASS or should I say Lamont..Do you recognize me? Regards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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