DrStool Posted May 19, 2023 Report Share Posted May 19, 2023 I have been warning Technical Trader subscribers about the likelihood that this is a cyclical bull market since Q4 of last year when cycle analysis suggested that a 4 year cycle low was due. And I think that we got proof of it yesterday when we saw a new intermediate term higher high after a higher low. In both cases it was the second higher high and higher low over a period of months. That's a bull market in my book. But this "bull" is now 8 months old. And even though the short term looks very bullish, if you think that we can then extrapolate this into another long secular bull run, think again. It's unlikely. Think Japan after their first pullback from their initial QE experiment 30 years ago. They stayed locked in a range for a couple of decades. So I think that unless the Fed returns to full fledged long term QE, flexibility will be the key. You'll need to do the technicals, and follow the liquidity flows, and assume nothing. I don't think that buy and hold will work. Buy and trade, just might, however. Meanwhile today looks bullish. We had a base breakout yesterday. The 5 day cycle projection is now 4225. The base breakout measures to 4250 in the short run. There's an even bigger base that suggests 4310 in a couple of days. But first, a number. They need to clear trend resistance around 4220. I'm not even gonna think about the downside yet. Trend support is coming up to 4190 in the opening hour in NY, so don't get suckered by any little shakeouts that come up this morning. For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Chart Picks – Let’s Get Ready to Rumble May 18, 2023 The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023 The Twilight Zone May 15, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – Buy Side Wins This Week May 8, 2023 There’s One Key this Week to the Stock Market Outlook May 7, 2023 Gold Is on the Brink May 5, 2023 Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown May 4, 2023 The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023 Gold’s Lost Luster Will Shine Again April 25, 2023 Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023 The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted May 19, 2023 Report Share Posted May 19, 2023 I leave for a couple of days and the Bulls have completely destroyed the China Shop... It appears as though I'll be playing the part of the Bear this go around. Claws and all... After all it's nice to have someone to point fingers at and chuckle...although, it does prevent some from turning inward and taking a good long look at their own behavior. Of course....I'm not speaking to any of you fine gentlemen. I see the 'move to dishearten the bears' has brought the 'emboldened' bulls out in force. Although, calling a sideways consolidation since the October lows...a bull market...is a bit of a stretch? We've been going sideways for what, almost a year now? No matter...I'll run with the idea. If the ^GSPC can steamroll through 4310(and hold it), I'll be joining you on your quest. I was actually inspired to see the Nasdaq clean out that gap...and since the ^GSPC is so close...I'd like to see it follow suit. Then...I consider this 'bull market', over. Now. If 4310 is pierced and can be held on Volume. I will gladly accept that I've been incorrect and pick up a spud peeler. I prefer the swiss peeler, Kuhn Rikon...and I have it at the ready. Until then...let's see how it goes. I think the turn is coming in about right now, meaning today. Although, perhaps as soon as Monday? Although, it's never Mondays? Is it? Here is the aforementioned gap in the SPX: I'd like to see it fill...and then this market roll over like a good dog. Twin Peaks Formation Reference Chart Despite, what? A year of constant harping and 25-30 charts outlining the Twin Peaks Formation from every angle possible, not a single taker? Ok... Since I spent time completing the chart below, I'll post it and then just tuck away the 'Twin Peaks' for another time. Again. From my perspective...we're in nothing more than a simple 'Twin Peaks' topping formation and have never left. You're finishing up the secondary peak now... At the Turn...if the Pattern isn't breaking...you're dead wrong. I've been watching the DAX(and the Nikkei) very closely. The reason is... with this apparent attempt at a new all time high on the DAX you're on the verge of breaking the pattern I outlined in my previous chart a week or two back. The CAC40 is still acting correctly, but the DAX...if it continues and can hold it. This is another place where you can also force a mea culpa from Ol' CoinGuy. Although, It's not over...until it's over. You know...I can remember the DAX having made a double top...and then a couple of years later it made another attempt at piercing that double peak just like it is today. Let's see...when was that? Right before the Pandemic Crash. I have zero doubt it will repeat... This time around, let's take a look at the CAC40 against our ol' favorite...BTC. and then follow it up with...NOW?: Since I mentioned the Nikkei, I'll add this. The ^N225 is dancing on the edge. YOU may see the Nikkei...I see the DAX! Ahh...The symmetry of a 'completed pattern'. Then, we have that gap fill in the Nasdaq and as I've said many times. One day means nothing, it has to hold the area and on Volume. Probing into a region, while it can be exciting...it has to hold the ground it just took. If it can't? Simply put...it's over. Same as the SPX, if the Nasdaq can pierce through and hold 13,200...I'll join you. Why? "Because that is the difference between a consolidation...and a continuation." I can only hope that you take the time to think that through... I'll close with this... We've been treated to the 'appearance' of Gold & Silver trading inverse to the Stock Market since the October lows...nothing could be further from the truth. Two Peas in a Pod: Going forward from here. They will both continue to travel together until the magnet in the ^GSPC has been reached. Then? Blue Skies for one. The other? Green Shoots that eventually die of starvation(from lack of liquidity)... "When you say you'll bail everyone out...the first test of that theory isn't far behind." Best Regards, The CoinGuy oh...and... For your convenience... 'Dust in the Wind' from the archives: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted May 19, 2023 Report Share Posted May 19, 2023 Matching cups...NO handles. Best, The CoinGuy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TurdButter Posted May 19, 2023 Report Share Posted May 19, 2023 So the apocalyptic nudges and winks, more toward the Fed/liquidity side of things, are irrelevant now? Or sort of like the sun exploding-its a fact of physics that it'll happen but it's also realistically a million plus years off? Not identical time frames of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 19, 2023 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2023 Seems like an important juncture coming into the weak end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 19, 2023 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2023 For having hit the debt ceiling two months ago already, it sure seems odd that the government will borrow $100 billion more in public debt over the next 12 days. Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly Held Maturing Net New Cash or (Pay Down) 05/31/2023 Coupons $150,000 $89,750 $60,250 05/26/2023 Coupons $22,000 $0 $22,000 05/25/2023 Bills $146,000 $144,992 $1,008 05/23/2023 Bills $154,000 $135,984 $18,016 Must be some kind of magic trick. Is it bullish or bearish. Answer is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 19, 2023 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2023 Gotta trade the charts. Even there, I'm finding the edge to be significantly less than in the past. It's frustrating. Perhaps much of the blame for this market can be place with the fact that shorts are their own worst enema. On that note, I bid you a bonne weak end, Bonne nuit et bonne chance! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted May 19, 2023 Report Share Posted May 19, 2023 One final chart as we head into the weekend. It's not over. It hasn't even started yet... Sixteen Times Twelve Is?: Over a decade later and the ^HUI is still looking for a bottom... Best Regards, The CoinGuy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted May 20, 2023 Report Share Posted May 20, 2023 THE LONG AND THE SHORT OF IT Why is the US treasury yeild curve inverted. I think one of the primary reason is because the US treasury does'nt want to put any more pressure on the long bond. It does'nt want the banks and insurers and pension funds to suffer any more losses. So it borrows short at higher rates....... A deliberate gift to short term lenders. But this only encourages more deposit flight..... So to save the Banks in the long term they are destroying the banks in the short term. (Or is that the other way around!!!) The choice is between more bond losses or more deposit flight!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted May 21, 2023 Report Share Posted May 21, 2023 Good evening... For now...this is going to be my final chart. The Holy Grail: The rules for this formation can be read in the "The Great Reset UPDATED, Companion Chart 1a" below. In fact, for your convenience...I'll just post a copy of the whole series from the beginning. Since early April, I've given wave after wave of charts. I think this is enough until 3810 is lost in the ^GSPC. Once 3810 falls, I plan on being less and less active until we reach the MAGNET. I actually never planned on giving market commentary, smile. I'm a goldbug. At the MAGNET is where I'll be assessing the gold(and silver) situation...and probably update this chart here. Although, none of what I say should come as a surprise...FTW's 'Gold Star' Chart...already light's the path to the Promise Land. Remember what I said...If the magnet holds. I'll give one final series of charts. Then...POOF! I'll be gone. Where? For me, it's not Blue Skies, but Blue Water... If the magnet doesn't hold? Well...we'll come to that IF it happens. I'm not holding my breath. At the magnet...when people begin to see 90% declines. Oh, they'll be calling it good when the suits step in to screw the public(for their own good). Unfortunately...I'll still be shaking my head in disbelief. Compounded leverage takes more than one stage to unwind. Best Regards, The CoinGuy oh...and... As promised... The Great Reset ORIGINAL: The Great Reset UPDATED: The Great Reset UPDATED - Companion Chart 1a: For those who would like to understand the thoughts behind this pattern. Just search the archives for: "The Pattern!", "The Pattern within the Pattern!", and "Through the Looking Glass". If you can't find one of them, just shoot me a private message and I'll re-post the missing chart. In 'Through the Looking Glass'...I gave my exact thoughts on what I felt the next decade would entail - all within the confines of the 60 minute chart. To me. That chart is a masterpiece. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted May 21, 2023 Report Share Posted May 21, 2023 I can only imagine what the "suits" have instore for us plebeians? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted May 21, 2023 Report Share Posted May 21, 2023 "Never let a good crisis go to waste" is the first thing that comes to mind. I'd imagine that a) It's already written, and b) It is full of goodies for the suits(and their friends) and c) Gives the shaft and a small check to the American people. Essentially a repeat of '08. Although. As I said further up in the thread and in my "Dust in the Wind" chart...I do believe that will be the misstep. I'll just say this for now. I believe the "Full Faith and Credit" clause will be tested. I also believe...it's all been planned. A Digital Dystopian Central Banker's Wet Dream will be on the table...sooner, than later. TCG oh...and... FTW, you know...I just remembered that you weren't around early last year when I spoke of PayPal and Netflix as excellent 'Canary in the Coal Mine' issues and how "Tech was one step ahead of the DJI and the SPX". Here is a quick chart I made up of FB(Meta). If you compare it with..."Sixteen Times Twelve Is?" and "The Holy Grail" above...it should be able to give you ideas. Ideas that will light your path forward in the Stock Market. While it is not exactly the topic, nor the reason I'm posting this chart...I will mention...while NVDA is a momentum issue...it also cannot escape this pattern. On the weekly, peak number one is October 1, 2018. Best of luck. Ok. Now...THAT was the last chart. Smile... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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