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Mange Bound Markets 05/15/23


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I've had a fantastic week of travel from home in Nice to Paris, to Berlin, to my previous home of Warsaw. I still love Warsaw, despite its foibles and the often shitty weather. It's a great city. I like it much better than I liked Berlin.

But that's not fair. I didn't like Berlin all that much. On my list of favorite European cities, it ranks near the bottom. It's interesting, definitely worth a visit, but I always size up cities with the view of, "Would I want to live there?" In the case of Berlin, the answer is no. 

As for the market, I'm running late trying to finish two Liquidity Trader reports before NY opens.  

What to say? My goodness, we've been going nowhere. But at least we're doing it with alacrity. 

The ES 24 hour S&P futures have been in a range for so long, I feel right at home with it.

It keeps making triangle patterns, breaking out, and then failing to extend the breakout. It's as if they want you to think that the charts don't "work" any more. 

At the moment, around 7 AM NY time, they're at a key resistance trend point around 4142-43. Bwaha. They can count. If they get through that, then 4148 is the next key resistance. Clearing that might get something going. Having been well trained to expect failure to launch, might this be the time they smack the bears? I don't know. Prove it. 

If they don't break out, I'd look for the market to end the day at the great Dick Trickle Memorial Point of 4139 at 7 PM ET. 

The DTMP will be at 4131 on Thursday. 

Bottom line, the market is untradeable. Take some vacation days. 

102gak

Meanwhile, the bond market has found perfect equilibrium at 3.50 on the 10 year. More on that and the impact on stocks coming up in a Liquidity Trader update to be posted later this morning. 

102gex

Finally, here's a weekly chart of gold. Is it settling in for a long consolidation, or will it just break out and leave everybody in its dust

102gha

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9 hours ago, itiswhatitis said:

Where did the tutorial go?  I appreciate everything you post, sometimes it takes me several days to review and understand.

itiswhatitis...

Before I reply...I wanted to mention that it's good to see you posting.  I see your name down there at the bottom quite often, but I don't recall you posting.

I'll apologize for removing the content.  About a half hour after I posted I received a call about a relative.  I'm heading out this morning and I won't be back until Thursday evening.  I thought the 'tutorial' wasn't up long so...I'd remove it while I'm gone and just re-post it when I return.

Although, it appears as though someone is actually reading my material, so back up it goes.  Like I've always said...I don't care if there is one man or a hundred.  As long as someone is interested in learning...I'll continue to post.

I'm here to educate and lift up those who want to learn...

So...here we go:

I wrote this morning that 'as long as we don't take out the peak from February 2nd' my vote would be for nesting one's and two's. 

946594737_NestingOnesandTwos-May152023.thumb.jpg.14778cbd69b4adfd23b08e033791925b.jpg

Although, that thought comes with a caveat.

Always remember what Jesse espoused about markets...

"The market is designed to fool most of the people most of the time".

So...when I'm viewing the double top currently developing and I look at that pattern that has developed on the right hand side...I searched through my archives and could not find a single instance where that pattern was a peak.  It was usually a continuation, a 2nd or 4th wave consolidation pattern...where you would have one more push - to completion(5th wave).

Perhaps, a push...to dishearten the bears...and lend confidence to the bulls?

1471739583_GSPCContinuationPattern-May152023.thumb.jpg.a44b3bd6efbe961a053d0ee71cd34f86.jpg

Well...for now...I'll just enter a few of my own quotes.

"I'll judge today, by what I see tomorrow."

"One day does not a new trend make."

"Patience Pays".

Don't fall for any nonsense being the main point.  Let's see the whites of their eyes before putting pressure on the trigger.

Now...the caveat to the caveat.  Smile.   The left peak in '08 was the high.  The right peak just rolled over...

Smile...

Moving on...

I recently posted this chart of the nesting peaks & valleys in the ^HUI.  This pattern isn't all that common, but when it appears...well, as I said that day...it ends in tears.  If you think you've identified a nesting cup at a bottom and you're watching the market advance...start watching the advance and keep your eyes open for a 'halfway marker' of some sort.  The market will always give you one.  Later on...when we're discussing measuring from the center to the outside, I'll help you take advantage of that information.  Until then.  NOTE THE DATE!  A pattern. Will. Unfold. 

1237282095_NestingPeaksandValleys-May92023.thumb.jpg.5a3997b2ee87c88d5606d06d4d3adbcd.jpg

What do you mean a pattern will unfold?  What do you think I'm teaching here, pie in the sky nonsense?  Smile. I've spent a great deal of time showing you pattern after pattern in the stock market have I not?  Don't you think there would also be a 'pattern in Time'?  Huh?  What?  Smile.

Pay attention to the dates I post.  There is not a single date that I post that doesn't have HUGE significance to the Stock Market - In. A. Repetitive. Manner.

I'll ask...Can you begin to SEE it?2059487840_NestingPeaksValleys-May152023.thumb.jpg.51328ff1131bc15ea38d450f14ced239.jpg

There's that pesky 19.20 again... 

Here I am a staunch and I do mean staunch 110% backer of all things Gold...and you wouldn't believe how many enemies in that sector I made when I came in back at the 2011 peak(which was 640 in the ^HUI.) with my 'The 610 train to Nowhere Speech'...or my 2008 call in silver at 19.20.  The names I was called...well...it was an interesting experience. 

On both occasions...from hero to outcast...in 30 seconds flat.

640 time 3 is?

Now, when I kept repeating over and over after the June 8th peak in the ^XOI(see: Life IS a Symphony in the archives) that there were serious advantages to paying close attention to this sector...it didn't draw much attention.  Well, that didn't prevent me from taking a little slice for myself.

Now, as this opportunity comes to a close...if anyone on the forum is still hanging around you might want to move along before you become a statistic...

763171823_Just...DoubleIt-May152023.thumb.jpg.f9d05c7faf2a545aecba1ddce9f87b69.jpg

You could walk over to oil, where there is still something worthy to look at(two charts down), but frankly...there are better opportunities lining up in the market itself(next chart). 

From my perspective...it's your best opportunity.  Although, I live by rules...and one of them is.  To each his own...935458685_Just...QuadrupleIt-May152023.thumb.jpg.434aa8e3c2a93335bf4221ab92d14ff8.jpg

When you view the Rev H&S, please hear my words. "Other's might be looking for continuation...I'm looking for inversion".

And here is that brief look at oil...

1889755337_TravelingontheEights-May152023.thumb.jpg.cdbef6691031c95f81e5dda0f0f8dad9.jpg

Before I discuss bonds...I'm going to add this comment that wasn't in the original post, but is more and more finding it's way to forefront of my thoughts.

I never mince words or sit on a fence and I always take full responsibility for my actions.  I also try to be very direct in my manner of speech when bringing forth an idea...

Going Forward

"If the Stock Market doesn't recoil at the 2,240 to 2,250 MAGNET.  Then...THAT is your signal that you're getting it ALL dumped into your lap right now. AND...the target will be according to the Rule of 19.20!"

"The only thing that can override the Rule of 19.20 IS the MAGNET."

Keep one eye on that 50% level from the January 2022 peak.  Tweet Tweet...it'll be your canary.

2,240 to 2,250 is the dividing line between a one-stage and two-stage decline.  To keep that picture simple...

The difference between a repeat of '08...and...'29.

Can you really begin to SEE it?

Bonds

My assistant and bond guy Tom asked me twice this week my thoughts on bonds.  I can tell he's interested here, so I did take a look at the charts.  I poured over them for quite some time.  I'm going to go ahead...after the ball gets rolling...and post a chart(or three) on the bond market, then refrain from any further comments on bonds going forward - unless absolutely necessary.  The simple reason is...I do not like bonds.  Since the early 90's, well...MBS and some other practices...I just don't like them.  I don't like insurance either.  Can you guess what type of firm my father owned?  One or the other?  Or...I'm well versed...in both?

At any rate,  I've already lined up what I want to convey in the chart.  I'll just need a little time.  I do believe once you view my chart(s) you won't need any other information for quite some time.

If you review my UUP charts, or any charts mentioning HE(High Energy) events in the archives...the chart I post won't come as much of a shock....

Take Care All, as long as everything goes well...I shall see you on Friday.

The CoinGuy

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This Chart would not fit into the original post...

1598111123_DontPushYourLuck-May152023.thumb.jpg.fafa9525d71a2e6302844aa64be4d5e5.jpg

Although, the message it conveys is worthy of it's own post.

Can you start to see some symmetry in this chart?  Can you find the center? 

Do you remember this?

"As you Enter into the Formation...in the same Manner you Shall Leave".

Once you study this for awhile and give it some serious thought...go back to "The Beginning...", "The Middle" and The End" and review them one more time.

Just remember when doing this...

NOT 1x - REST - 1x, but...10x - REST - 10x...

Best,

TCG

oh...and...

For your convenience...

The Beginning...

935639286_1-TheBeginning-September232022.thumb.jpg.2dce323bc66b2c10c5283e65dd789c61.jpg

The Middle...

770921130_2-TheMiddle-September242022.thumb.jpg.56172824abb4479e60020830148b701d.jpg

The End.

89364336_3-TheEnd-September242022.thumb.jpg.a695b0acc6b3192418ab20c16062b660.jpg

And maybe one or two more...smile.  Think!  Study!  Never Give up!

the 'High Energy Advance"...

1793271593_CarryonmyWayWardSonUPDATED!-April82023.thumb.jpg.469f3ca69fdb13a001d44c3f39b11a79.jpg

ditto...1297220224_ThatPeskyDollarWillDoubleTop-April72023.thumb.jpg.ff8b86689af88762fdcc47896e3cb6ac.jpg

And to conclude.  Perhaps...a re-post of the "Scratch Sheet"? 

8.19?  Hmm...didn't I see that recently somewhere else?

1613776963_ThisisthesecretofTheCoinGuy-April32023.png.ac813eb0204e01e27b5f8966d17019dd.png

Carry on my WayWard Son UPDATED! - April 8, 2023.jpg

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