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Refusing to Give Up the Ghost- 5/11/23

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No that is not a political statement. Although it could be. Sadly. It's about the bulls, and the direction of the market. 

The flat squeeze goes on. Not that we should be surprised. There's been plenty of liquidity around over the last month, but traders have just been sweeping back and forth through this cleaned out range. Nobody wants to risk cash above resistance, and bears are covering their shorts when the market pulls back to sport levels. 

It is, after all, sport. 

In the very short run, where our focus is on this thread, why should we expect anything to change? Uh, no, we shouldn't. In the big picture, it will change, but here and now, not likely. Yet

In terms of today's outlook, the 5 day cycle on the ES 24 hour S&P fuctures has been running 4-6 days, which is normal variation. The cycle entered and up phase after yesterday's late selloff. That up phase could top out any time from today through Monday. There's a 2-3 day cycle projection of 4175. It's iffy, but the hourly cycle oscillators started the move from near the zero line, which usually translates into a big move. So I'm thinking second wind coming. If they clear 4158, look out above. 

I won't bore you with what bears need to do to get anything going. The chart is clear about sport line after sport line below where we are now as of 5:30 AM ET. If they test the high and roll over, with cycle oscillators turning down from below the prior peak then we can talk. 


Meanwhile, bond land is loving it some 3.20 to 3.60 on the 10 year. The permanently low plateau goes on. Here's what should happen. Be prepared. 


Attention gold fans! Should we be worried?



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3 hours ago, DrStool said:

The shopping malls are like a return to the US in the early 80s. Fully rented, teeming with shoppers and roaming teenagers. 

Retail square footage per capita is much much less in Germany compared to the US.

Inner city shopping still doing "okish", but was better say 10 years ago or so.

Department stores have huge problems nowadays in Germany. Only a matter of time til that business model finally dies. Luxury brand stores doing well (so pretty the same as in the US as seen in the video below).




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Berlin is living history museum and monument to the international political history of our lives. Since 1945, one thing is a constant. 

The Russians are always the problem. 



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5 hours ago, DrStool said:

Berlin is living history museum and monument to the international political history of our lives. Since 1945, one thing is a constant. 

The Russians are always the problem. 



Well said.

A big thank you to the heroic american pilots who kept West-Berlin alive in 1948 and defended with their duty the way we in the West want to live, our freedom and prosperity.

And a big go and eff yourselve to all the Marxists, Maoists and Pol Pot fans in the West who till today paint a shiny picture about Communism, which is in fact - together with facism - the most braindead, deadly, totalitarian and inhumane „theory“ mankind has ever created. 

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The Russians are no longer communist. But they are still the problem. This is a cultural character issue, not an issue of political system. It dates back a thousand years and continues today.

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Why I'm here...

Sniff...Sniff. There’s something in the air.

As we start our 3rd week in the Serengeti. Tom...our cameraman has just discovered a young male lion prowling through the brush on the west slope. Perhaps, we should pause for a moment and take in the beauty of this magnificent beast...

Oh, wait.

As I panned left with my binoculars I just caught a glimpse of a young gazelle limping into in the middle of the field…1049647911_SBNYvsDIS-May112023.thumb.jpg.203751a040810b0ef058b6ea298d8bcb.jpg

I’ve swam by this issue three or four times now...I like to wait until they stop kicking before I take a chunk.766213023_SIVBvsGOOG-May112023.thumb.jpg.f8bfff5315f9ec62d13febe3e9acc341.jpg

Like I said, “They have one push left”...and...you’re in the latter stage of that push right now.  when the NDX gives it up...well, you know.


Truth is. PYPL isn’t the canary. I am….and...I’ve been tweeting loud and clear for weeks.


Three heads….of the same entity? Huh? What?336425500_DumbDumberandDumbest-May122023.thumb.jpg.c7ad910bfa80c6f4ca12b583a505f0e8.jpg

I think anyone that knows me knows my favorite pastime.  Stock Market Crashes. 

I've had time to go through all of the current bank charts as well as the current charts of the individual stocks in the ^DJI.  I took all of these issues and have compared their patterning behavior against the 'textbook' crash and bankruptcy patterns from my historical database(archive).

I gave you a sample in Disney...but my God man.  I say this with no jesting. 

I'm concerned.

The CoinGuy

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