Good Morning from Paris! 5/8/23

[DrStool]

I write to you today from the fabulous City of Lights on the third day of my planned summer of travel. My itinerary will take me as far east as Poland and Budapest, then north to Prague, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, and finally the north of France for a few weeks before returning home to Nice. 

I expect to have a lot of fun and will shoot plenty of photos of the places I visit. I like to capture, as best I can, the feel of the the street life and architecture of the cities and towns that I visit. If it interests you, you can follow that on my Instagram page. 

And I will maintain a regular publication schedule for Liquidity Trader and the Wall Street Examiner. 

While, I'm gone, I've put my little pied-a-terre in Nice up for holiday rental. If you're thinking of visiting the South of France this summer and you're interested in staying a great neighborhood in Nice, drop me a note and I'll send you a link to the page.  

Meanwhile, as of 4 AM New York Time and 10 AM here in Paris, the US market still appears set up to move higher again today. The hourly chart of the ES, S&P futures suggests a 5 day cycle projection range of 4160-85. The May 1 peak was 4187. A breakout above 4148 would have a conventional measured move objective of 3205. 

An hourly close below 4128 would take the prospect of a test of the high off the table. But if it stays above 4128, then, given how thin this trading range is, getting back to 4187 would be a piece of cake. 

If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. 

For moron the markets, see:

• Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown May 4, 2023
• The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023
• Don’t Go Short if This One Thing Happens May 1, 2023
• Swing Trade Chart Picks – The Future is One Word – Baking Soda April 26, 2023
• Gold’s Lost Luster Will Shine Again April 25, 2023
• Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023
• The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023
• Here’s How We Know That Doom Has Already Arrived April 6, 2023
• Macro Liquidity Says No Way Jerray! April 4, 2023
• How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023
• Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023
• Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023

If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!

[fxfox]

Dottore,

sounds like a fantastic trip! From Prague you could travel via Dresden and Leipzig to Berlin. Both are very nice cities, Semperoper in Dresden is a "must see". 

[DrStool]

I'll be in Berlin tomorrow night until Friday. Then to Warsaw. I'll be back in Germany in June on the way to Scandinavia, then back in Germany in July for a month. I would like to see if I can find the hometowns of the original Adlers and Arnolds (father's parents- how's that for good German names!) who came to the US in the mid 1800s.

Story is though that some of them came from England on the HMS Juneflower, the second sailing after the Mayflower. 

[Jimbo]

WHY UNCLE WARREN BITETH NOTETH

So Uncle Warren does not want to nibble at the Banks.

Why Not.......Well................

 What is the point of recapitalising the banks.

When their deposits continue to waltz out the door.

Serenaded by the sinister music of the US Government defecit.

There is no point all.

The US Government has said "Me FIrst".

And so thats where the deposits are going.

The only way to stop this.....

1/ The Eccles Ecclesiarch fires up the printer

OR 

2/ The US Government gets fiscal discipline.....ho ho ho....ha ha ha

The US government will simply offer higher rates than the banks can pay on their deposits.

 In the current negative frame for banks recapitalisation wont work......

Its just throwing your money away.

[DrStool]

To da moon, Alice. 

 

[fxfox]

9 minutes ago, DrStool said:

To da moon, Alice. 

 

… and all the „pro‘s“ went long Bonds, often heard „blind trade“, „trade of a lifetime“ and such, ou la la…

[DrStool]

Flat down phase. 

The market will do one of two things here. It will either go up or down. 

There's a third possibility. I could do both. 

And a fourth. It might do neither. 

I get paid a lot of money for analysis like this. 

I'm going to sleep now. Gotta get up early for the train to Berlin. 

Paris recycling:

No, seriously. 

 

[DrStool]

How the hell does anyone work if they drink this much. 

And this is just the wine they drink at home. 

Well, at least they're environmentally conscious. 

[SiP]

Just spent 8 days in Eastern Germany.

Potsdam - great small city with Palaces. Some people call it a german Versailles.

Dresden - this is where all the euros earmarked for German reunification went.

Berlin - everybody knows. It was my third time in Berlin and this time finally I went to Pergamonian Museum (Babylon Gate), saw Nefertiti head (neus ? museum), saw Stasi Museum (secret agents during DDR) and Tears Palace.

 

what i dont like in Germany is that on google maps you cant see speed cameras. I think i will get ticket for riding 40 in 30 zone.

 

[fxfox]

10 minutes ago, SiP said:

Just spent 8 days in Eastern Germany.

Potsdam - great small city with Palaces. Some people call it a german Versailles.

Dresden - this is where all the euros earmarked for German reunification went.

Berlin - everybody knows. It was my third time in Berlin and this time finally I went to Pergamonian Museum (Babylon Gate), saw Nefertiti head (neus ? museum), saw Stasi Museum (secret agents during DDR) and Tears Palace.

 

what i dont like in Germany is that on google maps you cant see speed cameras. I think i will get ticket for riding 40 in 30 zone.

 

 Very nice! Awesome pic of Brandenburg Gate. The Stasi (for „STAatsSIcherheitsdienst“) was the Secret Service of the interior ministry in the GDR. They had 1.5 million so called IM‘s („informelle Mitarbeiter“) which were ordinary citizens who spy‘d on their neighbour and such. That were roughly 10% of the population of the GDR. So imagine a suburb in the US where there is a street where 100 families live, 10 of them would have been spy‘s who did observe you. Secretely.

To live in freedom is such a gift and treasure which should be protected always and everywhere. 

[The CoinGuy]

Doc:  For those who don't have social media accounts...Please consider continuing to post a few pictures on-site.

And...have a great time.

I actually admire the French.  While Americans sit on their couches....the French go into the street.

SiP:  Excellent photography.

JIMBO:  I don't comment on your posts as much as I should, but I do enjoy reading them.   All of them.

I do believe Warren is holding cash(or cash equivalents) for the same reason I am. 

In fact...I can remember only two people in the whole world who were very vocal about mentioning this at the beginning of 2022. 

Both are members of this forum.

TCG

oh...and...

My fellow goldbugs...

Remember what I said.  This market simply cannot pause here.  It has to continue going upward and to the right.  ANY strength back below 275(especially if it tanks below 272 on Volume) - protect yourself.  Nesting cups at peaks/valleys usually ends in tears.  This is NOT the time to be playing games.  

Below 260?  It's over.

 

For those in the ^GSPC.  Don't lose sight of the 'left peak' high on February 2nd.  A move above 4195.44 might temporarily slow down any market bearishness...

If it fails to overcome the swing?  After all the charts I've posted...I don't think there is any further need to elaborate.

There are rumors everywhere...but only The Shadow(Banks) Know(s).