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THE Double Bottom 5/5/23

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The ES 24 hour S&P futures came down to test the April 26 low yesterday. The test was successful, but for a couple of glitches. First, it made a slightly lower low. Second, there were no positive divergences on the hourly oscillators. Typically that means that there's more downside ahead.

But for now, the 5 day cycle projection of 4060 was blown out yesterday and hourly oscillators have turned up, suggesting an up phase in that cycle. Ideally it would last until Monday. To be anything more than a dead cat bounce, it would need to clear 4100 today. Otherwise, a near-term breakdown below the lows would become more likely. 

-yqsp

This looks like a big bottom on the hourly, but let's zoom out to 4 hour bars. Looks more like a big top, which would be appropriate for this circus. For the big picture, check out my Technical Trader reports. Next update coming this weekend while I'm on the train to Paris. 

-yqom

By the way, today's Bureau of Liar Statistics Nonfarm Payrolls report should be really shitty. 

Bond journee! The Big One is Coming

-yqwe

Withholding tax collections through May 2 have been much weaker than the year ago period, and weaker versus last month. This does not bode well for the budget deficit. It suggests that there could be be more Treasury supply than forecast by the TBAC. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

It also suggests a very weak jobs report for April assuming that the BLS doesn’t adjust the weakness away in the various statistical tricks it applies to smooth the data. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

That’s never a safe assumption, but sooner or later reality catches up with them. Last month’s report should have been weaker than it was, based on March tax collections. The BLS reported 236,000 new jobs in March. Based on withholding for March, that number should have been zero or negative. There was no improvement in April, so this should be the month where reality catches up with them. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

If it does, the R House Majority will have absolutely no incentive to reach a deal to raise the debt limit. The worse they make the Administration look, the better it will be for them politically. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Meanwhile, Madame Secretary has warned us that the drop dead date for the debt limit is June 1. Supposedly that’s when the Treasury will run out of money. I did a few back of the envelope calculations, and it is completely plausible that they’ll run out of cash by the end of May. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

You’ll want to see the ugly details so that you can be prepared to take the appropriate steps to protect yourself, and even profit from the situation. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Gold’s 9-12 month cycle high is overdue. The cycle projection has xxxx to xxxx. The cycle may have shifted into trending mode, which would be consistent with the initial stage of long term cycles turning xxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

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23 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Those NFP numbers are insane. As per the numbers the economy is running hot. Hourly earnings even more up than expected. I'm Sir Prized. 

They're insane because they're false. 

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12 minutes ago, DrStool said:

If you throw enough spaghetti against the barn door, the horse will not be able to excape. 

Do not put the carbs before the horse....

 

Glad to see you back...liked your most recent report, although the employment numbers this morning made no sense.

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1 hour ago, potatohead said:

Do not put the carbs before the horse....

 

Glad to see you back...liked your most recent report, although the employment numbers this morning made no sense.

Do not put the chart before the horse. 

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Guess when the debt ceiling is lifted the FED will force the money out of the RRP.

But could be that the Republicans don‘t give in and provoke a default so that we get a crash and Trump can blame the Democrats and win with a landslide in 2024.

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