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Top Breakdown Under Way - 5/2/23

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But it's not quite there yet as of 6:13 AM ET. The ES hourly 24 hour S&P futures chart needs to break below 4155 first. Then that would have a conventional measured move target of 4128. Whoop de doo. If it doesn't break down today, then they'll head higher into the FOMC picnic tomorrow. 

There's a lot of news on the liquidity front, which I will address in a Liquidity Trader update tomorrow. Nothing urgent has changed as far as I can tell but I'm still parsing reams of Fed data to see if there's a nugget of insight somewhere that might open the lockbox of future secrets for us.

For now all we can do is follow the charts. And pray for guidance. And not the kind of guidance that comes from the Fed. Because it is flying blind. And lying about it. If there's one thing that Jerome Powell learned from the master, Bernanke, it's self exculpatory gaslighting.    

When asked at his last dog and pony show if the Fed staff had warned the FOMC that any banks were in trouble, he cleared his throat and said, "I don't know. I'll have to get back to you on that." I instantly commented that that was a bald faced lie, and in the past week we got proof of that fact in the release of news of the Fed staff report that had been prepared months before that delineated point by point the exact problem the reporter asked about. 

Not only is Jerome Powell incompetent. He is a crook. Not only is he a crook, he's a lousy liar. Biden should have fired the guy, but I guess he thought it good to have a useful, dishonest schemer, in charge of the Fed.

As bad as Powell is, Bernanke was worse. Bernanke was responsible for the financial genocide of millions of hard working, thrifty, honest, risk avoiding elderly Americans who had saved money all their lives just to earn a little interest income in retirement. Bernanke stole that from them and gave it to his Powells in private equity, at Wall Street banks, and big hedge funds. 

Bernanke famously said in 2010, "Monetary policy has winners and losers." He chose his crooked cronies to be the winners, and simple, hardworking, honest people to be the losers. The man was a willful financial mass murderer. When it comes to financial holocausts, the soft spoken, even toned, studiously academic Bernanke epitomizes the banality of evil. 

Yellen, despite her failings of insight, to her eternal credit, started a policy to start reversing the long term theft of savings. Unfortunately, she acted too late, and she moved cautiously and incrementally. When Powell came in, within a few months he doubled down on the Bernankist financial genocide. In doing so, Yellen's would be Volckerist legacy was destroyed and is forgotten. 

By doubling down on QE and ZIRP Powell finished Bernanke's job of destroying the savings and lives of honest , risk averse, retired savers. The Fed first them of their rightful interest income and transferred it to speculators. Then many of those retired savers were forced to spend down their principal into penury.  I saw that process first had in my own family. I'm would guess that you, or people you knew went through it as well. We know the truth of the devastating downside of ZIRP. 

And now we see the devastating consequences of the aftermath. Finally, QE, and helicopter money in the pandemic set off the worst consumer price inflation in 40 years. Before that, we had the worst asset price inflation ever. But nobody seemed to mind that because supposedly everyone benefitted. Until it ended.

Now we have a consumption goods inflation that is robbing everybody, except debtors. And a real asset price deflation that is crushing debtors. Many of those debtors can't pay anymore, or if they can pay, the won't because they no longer have any equity to protect. It's gone. So those same big shots with uninsured deposits are running scared. The dominoes in the banking system are starting to fall.

We're in a holy mess. Neither the Fed, nor Janet Yellen's Treasury knows what to do about it. Yellen didn't make this mess, but now she and one of the wiseguys who did are in charge of cleaning it up. 

There is no way. 

It's a metastatic cancer. There's no surgical or medical cure. It will grow, and metastasize, until it finally kills the body politic in the US, and the rest of the world.  The disaffected always turn to the siren call of the fascists. The cycle ends badly. Rebirth and renewal are too far over the horizon for many of us. The younger folks will need strength and courage and luck to get through what lies ahead. 

We've been here before 100 years ago. The past is the future. 

So what to do. Buy stocks, of course. 

Seriously, if the ES doesn't break 4155 today. 😒


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Balance sheets are such fascinating things

Take Equitable Holdings

Has a market cap of $9 B.

Tangible book value 2020 14 Billion

2022 .......minus 5 Billion


Where did the tangible go.....

Was it where the bond fires burneth???????

A lot of insurers are quietly suffering.

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Mainstream financial media narrative always set by ruling fashion.

Fashion set by major financial companies through power of add spend.

The rule is always "D'ont rock the boat"

This always leads them to downplay and minimize negative news.

This site gives negative news the value it deserves because it is not dependent on add revenue.


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Greenspan and Bernanke and the rest are simply doing what's popular.  All Americans love money, meaning credit.  Love love love love love it. Money to inflate asset values is a bedrock of America.  Being against inflation in America is like being against gravity.

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The RUS2k, which did not participate in the rally over the last month and a half, breaking down.

Who is telling you the truth about the markets, 2000 small cap stocks or 5 of the largest tech stocks?  Choose your poison.  

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8 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

PacWest Bancorp, $PACW, now down 29%, stock halted. Western Alliance Bank, $WAL, now down 25%, stock halted. Metropolitan Bank, $MCB, now down 24%, stock halted.

Nothing to see here, all is well, move along people....

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5 hours ago, DrStool said:

Bernanke epitomizes the banality of evil. 

That‘s Hannah Arendt. One of the greatest in my view.

Bernanke was the willing executer. The roots of that date long back. If we follow Hannah Arendt we can ask: When did the stock market become totalitarian? It was the introduction of the 401k‘s. Before that one could have said:“I don‘t care about stocks. Gimme my 3-4% in savngs account and I‘m happy“, then came the 401k‘s and the mindset changed. Forever.

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